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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Just wait till that extreme winter warmth shows up in the summer. We're due for another record breaking July/August heat wave/s. Also expect 60s early Feb.
  2. SnoSki14
    We won't even get that. It'll mostly be a stale March like airmass.
  3. SnoSki14
    Well peak cold, climo, and lowest sun angle didn't help one bit so far. We're good till mid March and even late March some years. After that those factors mentioned overwhelm the pattern.
  4. SnoSki14
    Although I think March could be decent, he's already been proven wrong on multiple occasions this season. He's just a parody of himself at this point. God and his politics & conspiracy nonsense is on another Ievel.
  5. SnoSki14
    This month and probably Feb are extended Marches essentially.
  6. SnoSki14
    And most of the CONUS + Europe. Everyone gets a torch this year. But hey at least Alaska's finally cold.
  7. SnoSki14
    The status quo looks to continue as far as the eyes can see. If a major change is going to happen it'll be in late Feb (Isotherm has nailed it so far). It would not shock me if March ends up being colder/snowier than met winter (the bar is very low).
  8. SnoSki14
    Except the 80s were cold & dry.
  9. SnoSki14
    At this point I just want full-on spring weather. I'm over this pathetic winter but do appreciate the lack of arctic cold.
  10. SnoSki14
    Flow is fast and there's no blocking so it's very unlikely this keeps shifting west. A miss to the east is more likely imo. Surface on GFS indicates possible paste job but bc it's flying & bombing too late New England is more likely to score.
  11. SnoSki14
    Do you though? Pretty much every system this season has cut inland.
  12. SnoSki14
    Late phase is on the table too and most probable imo. However because it's 4-5 days out it's still worth monitoring. Did notice the Euro trending towards phasing over the past 2 days, it would be the only way for us to snow given poor airmass. I wonder if 2006 is still an analog for this.
  13. SnoSki14
    By mid Feb we'll know enough whether to write off winter completely or not. If it's this same ole 10+ day out song & dance then the rest of winter is more likely to follow the early 2010s late winter patterns. Arctic air will have to start getting involved post Feb 15 otherwise even a perfect track won't matter. That +EPO needs to flip.
  14. SnoSki14
    I think we'll see a late phase where parts of eastern New England and especially eastern Canada will benefit. Although impressive the PNA spike will likely not be enough to counteract the lack of Atlantic blocking. The flow is way too fast and unless things change next 2-3 days I don't think we'll score.
  15. SnoSki14
    Hopefully the ridge out west trends stronger otherwise it'll never phase or it'll be too late. Plenty of time for things to change though.
  16. SnoSki14
    The storm has been on the charts for a while so it's definitely legit. But there's no room for error. The track has to be perfect and the storm has to bomb out because the antecedent airmass is garbage. I'd give it a 10% chance for us to score.
  17. SnoSki14
    Probably the only chance until late Feb. Models showing SE ridge response after Feb 5 likely due to phase 6 brief MJO passage.
  18. SnoSki14
    Only if you can promise me a warm/dry March & April.
  19. SnoSki14
    Agree though things should improve as we go through February. The late winter comeback has been the theme lately.
  20. SnoSki14
    I'm not even gonna think about this until 3-4 days out. The signal for a storm is there though. Many things have to go right however.
  21. SnoSki14
    Everything that could've gone wrong went wrong so far. We had a massive +EPO flip, zero Atlantic blocking, very cold and stable PV in the Arctic, essentially a -PDO/PNA. That's why the entire country + Europe is well above normal and Alaska's cold finally. It's very reminiscent of 11/12 & 01/02 though with the Nino influence & split flow pattern it'll be more active. Time will time if anything will truly change soon.
  22. SnoSki14
    You really need the PNA to deliver. I believe that's how we got the Feb 2006 KU storm. If the +PNA is too flat then you get a messy system and without an arctic airmass in place you're pretty much toast.
  23. SnoSki14
    There's some legitimacy regarding next week's threat. There's a strong +PNA spike ahead of the storm and a Hudson block in place to try to force the storm south of us. We'll also be seeing the MJO 7 lag effects. However without a true -NAO block this can easily cut too. I'm leaning towards a coastal runner right now. It would take tremendous luck for us to score.
  24. SnoSki14
    These are temporary sea ice gains. The ice will collapse just as quickly once the vortex collapses in late winter.
  25. SnoSki14
    Well the climo clock is about to start ticking soon so something better change quick.
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