TheClimateChanger

The first half of January was rocking in my neck of the woods. Maybe overall it was warm, but we had storm after storm to start the year. Probably the best two week stretch other than February 2010.

For the record, that was intended as an em dash, not a negative sign.

Wow. Ashland, Wisconsin - 32 yesterday morning to the upper 80s this afternoon. Talk about a big temperature swing. National Weather Service

Only one hourly record match at Dayton (31F, at 11pm). The current dewpoint is down to 30F, but it was as low as 25F at 1 pm on June 2, 1994. One bright spot, a lot of these years with record low dewpoints featured BIG time heat at some point in the month of June or later in the summertime (e.g., 1988/1994), so maybe that will be the case for 2025?

The noon dewpoint of 28F was the lowest on record for the month of June at Fort Wayne, and the 30F dewpoint at 5 pm yesterday matched the record low. Unfortunately, there is clearly some bad data here.

Just look at the results for a "red sun" search query... this is across multiple continents now, with strange optical phenomena being observed as far as Ireland, London, and continental Europe. Seems odd, no? I don't recall anything like this occurring until recent years (2017-2019, and on). I know there were some big wildfires in Quebec in 2002, but that was a big-ticket item and not something that happened every year. red sun - Search / X

Haven't found an explanation for what caused all of the fires. Weren't you asking just a few days ago? This should be a moist and green time of the year. Seems odd for uncontrolled fires to be breaking out in early June, rather than earlier in the spring or in the late summer/early fall, no?

I posted this in the Spring Banter thread. Very cold this morning, with several record lows. And some locations not far from all-time monthly record lows. Have to wonder if the widespread pall of Canadian smoke, which somehow has seemingly spread to multiple continents, isn't causing a volcanic winter like effect?

Very impressive cold this morning, as low as 35F in southeast Ohio and 32F in suburban Pittsburgh. I am speculating on my X account as to whether these Canadian wildfires could be causing a volcanic winter type scenario. AI suggests "natural" wildfires should have a net warming effect, but that begs the question as to whether these fires are natural. Weird optical phenomena (red sun, visible sunspots) are being observed on multiple continents from all of the lofted smoke.

Very impressive cold this morning, including a record low of 28F at Bradford. I'm speculating on my X account as to whether these Canadian wildfires could be contributing to a volcanic-type winter scenario. AI suggests "natural" wildfires should have a net warming effect, but that begs the question as to whether these fires truly are natural.

Today was the 21st day on record with a low temperature at or below 40F in the official Pittsburgh area threaded record. There have only been 15 colder June nights (about once a decade).

Another chilly one this morning. Some notable lows: 32F, at Zelienople: National Weather Service 35F, at Cambridge, Ohio: National Weather Service 36F, at New Castle: National Weather Service 36F, at Butler: National Weather Service 36F, at DuBois: National Weather Service 36F, at Indiana: National Weather Service 37F, at Washington: National Weather Service 37F, at Franklin: National Weather Service 37F, at Connellsville: National Weather Service 38F, at Zanesville, Ohio: National Weather Service 39F, at New Philadelphia, Ohio: National Weather Service 39F, at Latrobe: National Weather Service 40F, at Morgantown, W. Va.: National Weather Service 40F, at Wheeling, W. Va.: National Weather Service 40F, at Pittsburgh: National Weather Service 41F, at Allegheny County Airport: National Weather Service

Looking like it could be a very smoky June on tap.

Chilly day today. Looks like the high might end up at 57F. Not a record, however. It was a frigid 45F for a high on this date in 1910.

Looks like we will eek below normal for the month tomorrow (on the last day of the month).

Looks like this may be a pretty high-end smoke event. This is all the way out to wee hours of Monday morning and look at all of that surface-based smoke across the High Plains down into Iowa, Kansas and Missouri. Even parts of the Southeast may see a slight decrease in visibility and possible faint smoky smell. Keep in mind, these model projections wouldn't even factor in any newly ignited wildfires today or over the weekend, and there should be pretty extreme fire weather conditions in place with near record temperatures. Given the likelihood of new fires, this may even be somewhat conservative.

Looks like there could be enough surface wildfire smoke for some visibility impacts/smell on Saturday. Either way, should be a rather hazy/milky sky.

The developing pall of smoke might help to mute temperatures somewhat as well. Will have to watch and see if it spreads any further east and south.

Definitely something to keep an eye out for. Computer models are depicting widespread lofted smoke spreading in across the Midwest over the next 48 hours, with air quality concerns [near surface smoke] in northern parts of Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin. I wonder if this will mute the expected warmup somewhat.

Lol - I think I may have triggered CloudFlare due to too many linked images. Regardless, NCEI lists the DJF mean for Michigan's Division 10 [Southeast Lower division] for 1961-1990 as 23.6F, and for 2001-2025 as 26.9F, which is an increase of 3.3F. This is actually slightly more than DTW's increase. I guess NCEI is in on the conspiracy!

Lol, calm down. Here is U of Mich - Ann Arbor coop site. At U of M, the average increased from 25.7F in 1961-1990 to 27.9F in the most recent 25 years (+2.2F). That lends some credence to your theory; however, there is an uncorrected non-climatic bias in this data. The early data is based on an observation time [set max] of 5 pm, versus a standard 24-hour day (see, e.g., below). This results in a warming of about 0.5C/0.9F relative to a midnight to 11:59 p.m. day. Also, here is nearby Toledo, Ohio. The increase is even more substantial than Detroit (+3.8F). Let's play find the Urban Heat Island effect at Toledo Express Airport. It's surrounded by woods and farms, and shows even more warming relative to DTW.

Again, you are reading things that I didn't say. I mean a 1995-1996 or 2009-2010 type year. As @bluewavepointed out, even relative to 2013, the available pool of arctic air is much smaller. If the 2030s are as much above normal as recent decades, PHL could see a decadal winter mean of ~38F. That is on par with the late 20th century average at Richmond, Virginia. Snowfall averaged around 16-17 inches at Richmond in this era, with high snowfall years around 40" or so. This really isn't super different from PHL's average of ~21-22 inches, but I would probably expect mean snowfall to fall more into that range over the next 15 years. And PHL has only seen a few years with substantially more than 40" in the last few decades anyway.

I didn't say that. Especially northern areas are still cold enough to benefit from increased moisture availability, but the baseline climate of more southern Mid Atlantic climates has shifted so much that significant snowfall in even a "normal" temperature regime requires lots of needle threading. Certainly, they could still do well in a particularly cold winter [relative to the norms]. I just wanted to examine what Chuck had posited a few pages back with a possible shift in PDO/AMO. It might be rather surprising but each of the last 4 decades in the east has winded up above normal for temperatures in the wintertime, relative to the existing normals.

Philadelphia 1961-1990 mean: 32.9F Incomplete 2001-2030 mean: 36.7F (+3.8F over 1961-1990) Maybe a place like Detroit is still cold enough for big time snows even in a warmer than normal regime, but it would be hard to envision a scenario where Philadelphia sees hefty snows in the 2030s if the 2030s average say 1.5-2F above the 2001-2030 means, with such a mild baseline climate.