TheClimateChanger

Lock it in gentlemen.

Oh yeah, this would be a doozy.

Only 300+ hours away...

Euro holding out hope for one more snow storm, especially north.

Warm day today, but only one record in the region. The high temperature at Wheeling reached 79 degrees, besting the previous record set in 1910, 1936 & 1946 by one degree. A couple other sites were within a few degrees of the records, but Pittsburgh wasn't particularly close since it was a handful of degrees cooler than places to the south and west and the existing record was a lofty 82.

I do recall a couple earlier in the winter along the I-80 corridor. NWS PBZ doesn't seem too keen on them - maybe because of the EAS activation? The ones I recall seeing them issue were near the interstate, so maybe they prefer to limit them to particularly dangerous interstate corridors?

Geez. The NWS in State College really loves their snow squall warnings. It's like the entire CWA at one point for just some scattered heavier cells.

Nice squall moving through here now, coating all surfaces. Actually looks to be more intense to the southwest where there's some returns in excess of 40 dbz.

Snowing heavily here. About an inch on the ground, but easily inch per hour rates at the moment.

Intense squall near I-76 & I-376, south of New Castle.

Wow. Very heavy snow here. Looks to be a couple of inches. Must be snowing at several inches per hour.

Agreed. Read my post at the time. I would also disagree that the models supported 3-6" by 00z last evening. The consensus was more like 5-7 inches. The GFS, which I posted in this thread, showed 8.3 inches for Pittsburgh. But I thought it looked pretty clear that we would easily pass the low end of that range by like 2 am, and be pushing the high end by 4-5 am unless the snow started to fizzle out. I mean there was already 2" or so by 1 am, with what looked to be an absolute monster of a band from near Zanesville to Clarion. 40+ dbz were showing up in Beaver County. And snowfall rates under the lighter colors were already approaching an inch per hour, so it was obvious there would be some 2" per hour rates under that mega band.

What the heck? How has the advisory still not been upgraded to a warning?

I'm in Pittsburgh this weekend. I thought for sure I'd wake up this morning to find the WWA had been upgraded to a warning, when I looked out the window and there was still heavy snow falling. How much snow has fallen?

Looking at the 0z modeling, looks like consensus is 6 or 7 inches for most of SW PA. Think we will end up with low end warning totals. But who knows - if the GFS is right, Waynesburg might be pushing a foot.

00z GFS has 8.3 inches. Nowcasting and observation time. Looking at radar tonight, this looks pretty believable.

KYNG 120451Z 29007KT 3/4SM -SN BR OVC007 M02/M04 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP106 SNINCR 1/2 P0010 T10221039 401111039 RVRNO $ METAR from 11:51 pm at YNG shows 1" in the last hour, with 2" already on the ground there. Judging by radar over the past 45 minutes, I would expect them to report another inch with the upcoming METAR. I think they were only expected to get 2-4 inches. Looks to be heavier than expected. Wonder if the NWS will upgrade to a warning?

It's weird how most of the modeling has us getting just as much, if not more, than Central PA. Yet those areas are under a warning, and we are under an advisory.

All modeling looks pretty good for a 4-5" snow now. The 12z Euro had over 5" with 10:1 ratios - would definitely support 6,7" with actual ratios if that plays out correctly. The 12z UKMet was nearly 4" at 10:1, would again be a bit more than that with ratios. All seem to be roughly in line with the GFS and Canadian. The only real holdout at 12z was the NAM 3K - which taken literally threw up a 2.2" in downtown Pittsburgh. But it looks like it's overdosing on microscale effects (topography, etc.). If you look closely, it has 4-5 inches in far western Allegheny out towards the airport. Not really realistic for the airport to double the city's total with this setup IMO. Looks like it's just overdoing the microscale effects, and smoothed out a bit would be a 3-5" storm areawide. Which is in line with what the 12Z NAM12K was showing.

Still on the lower end, since even with ratios, would be just under 4 inches in the city center. But at least now it's more or less in line with the rest of the guidance. Which is why I said I think there's actually greater agreement than usual. With the UKMet more in line, it looks like the lowest guidance - RAP, Euro, UK - would still support about 4" or so in the city, with the highest guidance - GFS, Canadian - showing about 7" or so. That's a pretty tight spread, no?

00z UKMET finally got a clue. This is with 10:1 ratios since Pivotal doesn't have a Kuchera map, but ratios should be more like 15:1. So you can increase these totals by about 50% to make it match the other Kuchera maps. Even so, now brings 4-6 inches from southern Washington, Greene, Fayette, Westmoreland, and 2-4 inches north. With ratios, would be more like 6-8 inches south and 3-5 inches north, which is now not too dissimilar to the other guidance.

Yeah, I just checked. They do have 1-4" (1-3" Fri. night and less than an inch Saturday) which is actually down from 2-6" earlier. The lower end of that range doesn't seem credible. I mean it could be right but I don't see any model support for less than 2" at all, the upper part of that range (3,4") isn't too far off from what I'm thinking (4,5" maybe 6" south).

If I were to make a call based on the current weight of guidance, I'd say 4-5" north of the city. There could be a bit more north of I-80 if some lake enhancement/lake effect were to occur. Looks like about 5" in the city and immediate 'burbs, with perhaps 6 inches down towards Elizabeth/Jefferson. A bit more south of I-70, with some 7 inch amounts possible in southern Washington, Greene and Fayette Counties. The Laurel Highlands look to have the best chance to see more than 7 inches of accumulation.

I hope it's not on the lower end of your range. The only model I've seen that low is the UK Met. But the UK Met looks to be off in la-la land compared to everything else. Even the Euro would support 3"+ areawide. With the exception of the UK Met, I think there's actually much better model agreement with this than the typical storm. We're often looking at guidance showing 6"+ in places and other guidance showing rain/mix. The GFS and Canadian are showing around 7" in Pittsburgh. Most of the other shorter term guidance seems to be in the 4-5" range, maybe 6". Even the newly completed 03z RAP run, which I thought looked horrible, brings a solid 4-5" for most of the area with 6-7" in Greene and Fayette Counties.

The orientation on the 18Z NAM looks much more favorable than the earlier runs. Similar to Canadian models.