TheClimateChanger

Sleet counts as snowfall in the weather records, so if the snowfall maps are completely excluding sleet they are going to come in too low. Normally, it wouldn't make a big difference as sleet accumulations are typically an inch or less. But the GFS shows several hours of heavy sleet with the snowfall maps (even the 10:1) not detecting any accumulation. If that were to actually occur, then yes, 3, 4, 5 inches of sleet are possible, which are being excluded from the snowfall maps. If you get an inch of QPF to fall as sleet at a 3-5:1 snow to liquid ratio, then that's 3-5 inches of sleet.

Nevermind. A big part of the disconnect is your map cuts out substantial snowfall that occurs after 3z Friday. There's still some weirdness going on, but a lot of those places are projected to receive several inches of snow later Thursday night into Friday.

Seems to be a disconnect between the Pivotal snowfall maps and the Pivotal change in snow depth maps. Some areas on the southern edge are projected to have a positive snow depth change of a foot or more, but depicted to receive little if any snowfall.

It never actually plays out like when the snowfall algorithms show those razor thin cutoffs like that in these types of setups. What would probably actually happen is a couple to a few inches of snowfall around the Pittsburgh to like 6, 7, 8, maybe 9 inches of snow around I-80. I suspect a lot of that along the southern edge of the heavy snowfall is actually slop - i.e., mixed sleet and freezing rain. The warm air aloft always makes it further north than expected. So even the 10:1 map is probably inflated.

TWC showing 4-6” near the airport Thursday night into Friday (see attached screenshot). Looks like they think this is 1-3, 2-4 from the city south. 4-6 in the northern part of the metro, with 6-10 further north towards I-80.

Next week not looking too bad on the 00z GFS. Quite a bit of precipitation spread out over a rather long duration, but depicts some showers (maybe a bit of freezing rain at first) evolving to a steady rain, then changing to a period of freezing rain and sleet, and then snow, possibly a few inches. The snowfall maps on Pivotal were showing upwards of 5-7" but appear to be inflated due to the mixed precipitation. Kind of an unsual setup but looks believable in this case given the very strong arctic high pushing south from Canada.

Some very large diurnal ranges across the region. After temperatures below zero this morning (in some cases, way below zero), the mercury has climbed to near freezing across the region: Cambridge, OH (KCDI) 32/-16 (48 degree swing) Zanesville, OH (KZZV) 31/-11 (42 degree swing) New Philadelphia, OH (KPHD) 29/-11 (40 degree swing) New Castle, PA (KUCP) 26/-12 (38 degree swing) Butler, PA (KBTP) 30/-10 (40 degree swing) Washington, PA (KAFJ) 34/-7 (41 degree swing) Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT) 29/-6 (35 degree swing) The Canaan Valley National Wildlife Refuge site has had a 62 degree swing (Hi: 31/ Low: -31).

Temperatures were all over the place. My car thermometer was registering changes of 20+ degrees in just a few miles. From double digit readings below zero to near 10F above.

NAM doesn't look too bad. 36-hour QPF at the end of the run is 0.25-0.5" throughout southwest Pennsylvania, with a bullseye of .5-.75" in eastern Westmoreland - all of which falls as snow. Would probably support a 3-5" snowfall areawide, with some 6 or 7" lollipops in the higher elevations east of the city. Still snowing lightly areawide at Hour 84 as well, per the simulated radar.

About 2 1/4” today, on top of 4 1/2” yesterday. Not bad. Feels like I teleported to Erie.

Per Twitter, snow has changed to freezing rain in New Philadelphia, Ohio.

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Very picturesque with the deep snowpack and heavy snow falling.

Yeah, looks like another decent little event tomorrow. Surprised their are no WWAs in effect for the ridges. Looks like some of the higher elevations could see in excess of 4 inches.

No, I think the measurement was about right. I'm 9 miles from the airport at a similar elevation, and had 8 1/4" when I measured at 8 AM. Probably picked up about another inch between then and 11 AM and noon when the snow stopped.

Oh, well, there's about 3" in Beaver County. I'm sure the NWS office in Moon will have a respectable total.

We've already had 2.5-3 inches?

Agreed. And I'd argue that 7 or 8 inches of heavy, wet sleet-laden snow has more sticking power than a foot of dry powder anyways.

Yes, I know it's very close to the airport. I just mentioned that to point out the fact that the NWS office report is the official observation.

I would say 8"+ is a lock for the official storm total, although double digits are probably unlikely unless a few random heavier squalls were to occur in northwest Allegheny County.

The snow map shows a report of 7" as of 7 am at the NWS office at 1 N CARNOT-MOON. I believe that's where the official snow records are observed, not at the airport. Given the continued light snow over the past two hours, would have to think they are up to 7.5" or so by now.

I’m about 10 miles from the airport and have 8.25” on the ground. Possibly some additional accumulation today

Just measured close to 4 inches at my house in Beaver County, with a mix of snow and sleet still falling. Messaged my friend in the Youngstown area and he said it's up to 6" on the ground there now, which is 4" more than when he measured two hours ago. So it must be snowing quite hard in some areas.