TheClimateChanger

Looks like the November 1950 storm, with rain and warm temperatures in Buffalo, and snow, wind and frigid weather in Pittsburgh.

Interesting. Is the reported temperature averaged over a certain interval of time, while the dewpoint is an instantaneous measure on this equipment? Why did the dewpoint drop so substantially before the temperature especially with fairly substantial precipitation falling?

On the Kuchera maps at hour 63, it hasn't even started snowing anywhere near Grove City. Three hours later, it shows 10 inches. Yeah, I don't think that's going to happen.

Well... I guess the 18z GFS sees the possibility of up to 24" in northwest Butler County, at least on these inflated Kuchera maps. Although I have no idea how the model is coming up with that amount. The whole map looks bizarre and splotchy.

Looks like the friction and uplift from the buildings might squeeze out an extra inch or two. Congrats.

Well, this seems a little bit optimistic, no? I don't think anywhere near us is actually going to see "heavy snow" except up by the Lake Erie shoreline.

Interesting. Could it be drought feedback (looked like the vast majority of the CONUS was at least abnormally dry in the most drought monitor), coupled with the fact that this is true, Arctic air [very cold and dry]?

I guess it's fairly impressive for late December. Current point-click centered on Pittsburgh International Airport has 15 for Christmas Eve, and 17 for Christmas Day, which would be the 2nd and 5th coldest max temperatures on record. Especially with the trend towards warmer Decembers. Midnight highs can always effect those figures, but looking at the timing of the cold front, I don't see that being an issue.

Very La Nina-ish. Looks like January 1950, with the crazy amounts of rainfall. Warm temperatures in the east, with cold and snow locked in the west and upper Midwest.

Looks very -PNA ish. Maybe these forecasts are underestimating the La Niña, and the cold will stay locked out in the west and upper Midwest.

Yes, pretty crazy to see entire runs of the GFS extending into the middle of December with not a flake of snow. I mean, obviously, this wouldn't be unprecedented by any stretch of the imagination. But, normally, the GFS would at least be manufacturing fake snow storms by this point in time.

That storm next weekend on the 12Z GFS looks intriguing.

Made it down to 31F at Akron/Canton yesterday (11/15), which is the latest freeze on record. The prior record was November 13, set in 1916, although there's some missing data from that year on days when it may have dropped to 32F or below - including no data on October 12, when lows on the surrounding days were 35 and 37 and there was a comment indicating a heavy frost; no data on October 26, when lows on the surrounding days were 36 and 33; and no data on November 12, when lows on the surrounding days were 34 and 28. Observations in 1916 were taken at the University of Akron. The second latest on record (with no missing data) is November 12, 2016. Still no freeze at CLE; however, that's not quite as rare there. One of eight years with no freeze as of 11/16, although 6 of those were 1932 or earlier when observations were taken on rooftops downtown. Not exactly ideal for radiational cooling. The only other year without a freeze by this point at Cleveland Hopkins International Airport was 2016.

First official freeze at Detroit yesterday. 2nd latest on record. Latest is November 15, 1946. Looks like Akron/Canton, Ohio and Wheeling, West Virginia are both experiencing their latest freezes on record. Previous records were November 12, 2016 & November 4, 1900, respectively. Wheeling will probably drop to 32 or below by midnight, and Akron/Canton by tomorrow.

Latest first freeze on record at Akron/Canton (see below). At Cleveland, it's one of only 12 years where there has not yet been a freeze. Although only three of those were at Hopkins International Airport (1946, 2016, 2022). Unless there's a midnight low in the cards, it looks like this will stretch at least another day - 2 of the 12 had their first freeze on the 14th, so it should be top ten at CLE. No. of days at or below 32 (through 11-13):

It's a shame that the remnants of Nicole couldn't time up better with the cold air pressing in. Could have gotten a classic La Nina snow storm a la November 1950. I wonder if we'll see any big storms this winter with the La Nina conditions in the Pacific. It was 80 degrees on November 1, 1950 - big warm spell that year end of October into the beginning of November.

Looks like it made it down to freezing this morning. I was going to say not to count the chickens before they hatch. Very easy to get a “surprise” freeze this time of the year with the long nights if it’s a bit clearer or calmer than expected. We had heavy frost here each of the last two mornings.

Ten years ago today was the last time NWS Pittsburgh issued a blizzard warning. Same for Charleston, WV; Blacksburg, VA; and Morristown, TN offices. Oddly enough, it looks like less than 2 months later, a swath of blizzard warnings occurred from Arkansas to northern Ohio, which was the last time any of those areas have seen the issuance of blizzard warnings.

Well, 1972, 1982 and 1998 were all strong to extreme Ninos, so there was a lot of heat to dissipate. I don't think this triple dip La Nina was preceded by a strong El Nino which is curious.

Maybe oak trees, but this is false. Look at the Halloween 1993 snowstorm in Cincinnati (and that's far south), and there are very few leaves on the trees. Clearly not bare, but most of the leaves had fallen. If there had been trees still in leaf with that widespread 6"+ storm, there would have been power outages all over the place. Which did not happen because there weren't many leaves left. We certainly didn't have leaves in northern Ohio, except on some oaks, after Halloween like in recent years.

Not to be overly pedantic but official records did not move to PIT until September 15, 1952, at which time the airport was called The Greater Pittsburgh Airport. I realize some sources incorrectly show data back to 1949 as belonging to PIT, but this is incorrect. The airport didn't even open until 1952. You can see the actual records in the NCEI records vault (see September 1952 below). So 1949-50, 1950-51 and 1951-52, which all appear in the table above, were actually observed at AGC not PIT.