TheClimateChanger

Nice burst of snow here right now. Very big flakes. The main band is off to my west and south though.

No, I’m in Beaver County.

Yes, some of the best rates of this entire event despite all the complaints and banter.

Yeah, I think we are still on track. Radar looks solid. It’s just been so long since we had any significant snow that they forgot how it works around here. Always premature bust calls, even in some of the bigger events.

Heavier snow here now, with better flake size. Maybe tapping into that DGZ.

It does look like there is some heavier lake enhanced snow showers moving into eastern Ohio, on radar.

I don’t think we’ll get there because it’s supposed to fall in a 12 hour period. Don’t think there will be any 12 hour period with 3 inches or more.

Snowing a bit heavier here now than earlier. Looks like around 2 inches here as well thus far. Seems to be playing out as expected. This was only ever supposed to be 3.5 or 4 inches over like 14 hours.

Light snow falling here as well. Probably a good sign. Atmosphere moistened up ahead of the main storm system.

I'm thinking somewhere in between the NAM 3k and the Shaler Facebook group.

Not to mention, the National Blend of Models literally had all of southwest PA in the 100% chance of 1"+, so I'm thinking this out to lunch. Lol.

Looks like a bunch of nonsense. I love how these high resolution models try to account for geographic features but fail miserably. The Ohio River valley is not a 20-mile wide deep depression in the earth. Many of those areas are 1200-1300' in elevation! I wouldn't even expect such a big elevation difference in this setup when it's going to be way below freezing. Sure the hilltops will probably ring out a bit more moisture, but that's an absurd depiction.

Interestingly, the NWS in Charleston is strategically lining up winter storm watches all along the southern boundary with Pittsburgh's CWA. Yet PBZ isn't even sure if advisories will be warranted. Other neighboring offices are also going with watches in the higher terrain, and NWS CLE has posted watches in north central Ohio where lake enhancement can lead to more than 6 inches.

Is this the correct advisory count for Allegheny County over the past 365 days? If so, that's pretty sad since two of them are for light glazes of ice.

Disappointing Arctic airmass, as well. Hyped up as the second coming of the Polar Vortex, and all we could manage was 7 above. Here are the 3 coldest low temperatures, and the 3 coldest high temperatures at PIT for today's date. I mean... the 21 years between 1977 & 1997 [inclusive], there were 3 times the high temperature was colder than today's low. Lows 1/17 -18 in 1982 -17 in 1977 -10 in 2009 Highs 1/17 -3 in 1982 -2 in 1977 6 in 1997

METAR KBUF 171354Z 22008KT 1/16SM +SN VV003 M13/M14 A2989 RMK AO2 SLP137 SNINCR 3/16 P0008 T11281144 RVRNO $ 3 inches in the last one hour (as of the 9 am observation), with 16 inches on the ground, at the BUF airport.

Meanwhile, Buffalo got that in just the last hour. METAR KBUF 171354Z 22008KT 1/16SM +SN VV003 M13/M14 A2989 RMK AO2 SLP137 SNINCR 3/16 P0008 T11281144 RVRNO $

The earlier map also started at 1 am Thursday, not 1 am Friday. I think they were expecting a bit more snow on Thursday. Now it looks like a half inch at best.

Looks like there was more snow than expected. Just eyeballing, but looks like we’re over 2, maybe about 3 inches. Falling pretty heavily too.

Actually, the new scale is a bit colder for very light winds (>5 mph) and probably inflates the value to be honest. A wind of 4 or 5 mph at 10 meters is probably dead calm at ground level. It was only at winds greater 10 mph, and especially 20-30 mph, that the old scale really went off the rails. It does look like there were winds around 10-15 mph earlier in the night, with temps in the mid negative 30s, so peak wind chills on the old scale probably would have been like -80, maybe -85. Heres a good comparison: https://www.adirondackdailyenterprise.com/opinion/columns/safety-on-the-roads-by-dave-werner/2016/12/wind-chill-values-revised-in-2001/ You can see at -40 with 5 mph winds, under the old scale the chill would be -47 whereas it’s -57 under the new scale. The old was actually probably somewhat more realistic under light wind conditions. You can also see under the old scale, at -40, you would still need sustained winds of about 22 or 23 mph to reach around -100F chills.

I think it's also important to note that @michsnowfreakisn't being fully forthcoming with just how bad it's been. The 5.0" observed to date is the 13th lowest (of 151 years) in the threaded historical record. Also, it's reasonable to suspect that it was somewhat inflated relative to the earlier years when they didn't use snowboards and measuring at intervals throughout the storm. I believe NCAR has found as much as 15-20 percent inflation from summing 6-hourly max accumulations measured on a snowboard relative to total depth. Regardless, this is pretty bad. 5th lowest of 66 years, since official records moved to DTW. And last winter was mostly luck for Detroit that snowfall wasn't only moderately below the normal. If we take a short jog down I-75, we find Toledo had its 4th least seasonal snowfall (of 127 years).

Well, I'll grant you 2006-07, 2011-12 & 2015-16 were generally milder winters for much of the region. 2009-10 was very snowy for most, however. As far as questioning the validity, I'm just going by the complaints of the locals from that era. Truthfully, I didn't put much stock in their complaints since I assumed they were just denying reality.

If I recall correctly, there was a lot of conversation here about the quality of the observations at Toronto during that era. Most locals said it was way underdone. That was probably one of the snowiest stretches on record for the Great Lakes region, so I wouldn't place too much stock in those numbers. The 20.6" for the winter of 2009-10 is particularly suspect and out of line with surroundings. There was 48" at Pittsburgh in February 2010 alone.