TheClimateChanger

Will probably move down the list a bit when today and tomorrow are factored in, but with two days remaining in the month, the mean minimum temperature is sixth lowest on record at IPT.

Absolutely insane. Can you imagine the ticks and rodents? Lyme disease infected ticks everywhere, and they are pushing this nonsense. It's a public health hazard and nuisance. If the people pushing this trend want to live among unmowed lawns, they should move to a rural area, and vacate the cities and suburbs.

I wonder to what extent the cool and very dry weather is attributable to the smoky atmosphere that has been in place over the eastern US this month. Wildfire smoke is known to reduce temperature by absorbing and, to some extent, reflecting solar radiation in the upper troposphere (and even into the stratosphere if it's hitched a ride there on towering pyroCb clouds), and by altering cloud microphysics which can increase the brightness and reflectivity of clouds. It can also reduce rainfall by weakening instability and the resultant convective updrafts, and by the same microphysical cloud changes. I wonder, too, if by warming the upper atmosphere, it might even lessen elevated convection, since there would be weaker lapse rates due to the smoke. On the plus side, the filtered solar radiation should result in somewhat reduced evaporation rates.

Oh, boy. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/22/world/americas/mexico-volcano-popocatepetl-eruption.html

The combination of drought, unseasonable frosts, smoky skies and brilliant sunrises and sunsets is somewhat reminiscent of 1816. Not saying we're going to have a year without a summer this year.

A lot of that is just elevation. MDT is 300 feet ASL, whereas PIT is 1200 feet ASL. Temperatures decline about 3-4 degrees, per 1000 feet rise. If records were still taken downtown (700-ish feet, plus UHI), there probably would be a handful of additional 97 degree readings in that timeframe. MDT also benefits from being downwind of the mountains, so downsloping effects can even enhance these differences on the hottest days.

I recall this event: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/landcane.html

What's all that in Mexico? Hopefully, Popo isn't about to blow its top.

ORD, MDW and MKE all reporting a broken smoke deck at 25,000 feet, with scattered clouds of smoke at Indianapolis at the same altitude. Will be interesting to see what effect this has on temperatures. MSP reported highs several degrees below modeled levels yesterday. KMDW 181353Z 14009KT 10SM BKN250 13/M02 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP191 FU BKN250 T01331017 KORD 181351Z 15012KT 10SM BKN250 13/M02 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP188 FU BKN250 T01331022 KMKE 181352Z 17006KT 10SM BKN250 13/03 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP189 FU BKN250 T01280033 KIND 181354Z 10006KT 10SM SCT250 13/02 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP187 FU SCT250 T01280022

Sounds like the thick pall of smoke kept temperatures depressed several degrees in Minneapolis-St. Paul today.

Smoky out there tonight.

Smoky out there tonight.

Some interesting METARs today with the smoke: Minneapolis-St. Paul Airport reporting overcast skies from smoke [FU] at 15,000 feet. KMSP 171353Z 14011KT 10SM OVC150 13/07 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP165 FU OVC150 T01280072 Des Moines, IA reporting overcast skies from smoke at 20,000 feet. KDSM 171354Z 07007KT 10SM FEW120 OVC200 17/11 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP143 FU OVC200 T01670111 The surface visibility at Grand Forks is down to 6 statute miles with smoke and haze. KGFK 171353Z 18015G22KT 6SM HZ FU FEW070 BKN250 18/08 A2983 RMK AO2 SLP102 T01830083

So, GPT confirms there is no historical evidence of smoke from North American wildfires reaching Europe, but there is evidence of smoke from wildfires in recent years doing so. GPT cites 2017 and 2018, but we can see this also occurred in 2020 and 2021. https://abcnews.go.com/US/smoke-west-coast-wildfires-travels-europe/story?id=73071098 https://phys.org/news/2021-06-californian-drifted-europe-heavy-clouding.html https://www.discovermagazine.com/environment/the-view-from-space-as-wildfire-smoke-smothers-large-swaths-of-north-america#:~:text=On July 17%2C 2021%2C smoke from North American,red in this map of the smoke distribution. GPT could find no historical record to suggest this ever occurred in pre-Columbian times, and I'm unaware of any evidence to the contrary. Recent fire and smoke behavior appears to me to be, quite literally, unprecedented. I just don't see how smoke could have ever reached Europe in the quantities observed in 2020 and 2021, because that would have essentially proved the existence of a vast continent to the west, but they had no knowledge of the existence of such a continent.

Some context from GPT: Question: What is the history of pre-Columbian wildfires in North America? Response: The history of pre-Columbian wildfires in North America is a topic of ongoing research and study. Prior to European contact and the arrival of Christopher Columbus in the Americas in 1492, indigenous peoples had inhabited the continent for thousands of years. These indigenous communities had a significant influence on the landscape, including the use of fire as a land management tool. Pre-Columbian wildfires, often referred to as anthropogenic or cultural fires, were intentionally set by indigenous peoples for various reasons, including hunting, agriculture, and resource management. These fires played a crucial role in shaping and maintaining ecosystems across North America. Indigenous peoples used fire to modify the landscape to their advantage. They employed controlled burns to clear underbrush, promote the growth of desired plant species, and maintain grasslands for grazing animals. These practices helped prevent larger, catastrophic wildfires by reducing the accumulation of dead vegetation and fuel loads. The effects of pre-Columbian wildfires can still be seen today. Many ecosystems in North America, such as the Great Plains and the Southeastern United States, evolved with fire as a natural part of their ecological processes. Certain plant species, including grasses and fire-tolerant trees, have adapted to and rely on periodic burning for their regeneration and overall health. However, with European colonization and the subsequent displacement and marginalization of indigenous peoples, these traditional land management practices were disrupted or suppressed. As a result, fire regimes in many areas changed, leading to altered ecosystems and increased risks of larger, more destructive wildfires. Today, there is a growing recognition of the importance of integrating indigenous knowledge and land management practices, including controlled burns, into modern conservation efforts. Collaborative initiatives are being developed to restore and maintain fire-adapted ecosystems, promoting ecological health while respecting the cultural heritage and land stewardship practices of indigenous communities. Question: How did the total annual acreage burned before European settlement compare to today? Response: Determining the precise extent of annual acreage burned before European settlement in North America is challenging due to limited historical records and varying ecological conditions. However, researchers have attempted to estimate the differences between pre-Columbian fire regimes and modern wildfire patterns. Several studies suggest that the total annual acreage burned in pre-Columbian times was likely higher compared to today. Indigenous peoples' intentional use of fire for land management purposes, such as clearing vegetation and promoting specific plant species, created a patchwork of burned areas across the landscape. These smaller, controlled burns helped prevent the buildup of excessive fuel loads and resulted in more frequent, low-intensity fires. One notable research paper published in the journal "Fire Ecology" in 2016 estimated that pre-Columbian indigenous burning in what is now the United States may have affected approximately 34.8 million hectares (86 million acres) annually. This estimate exceeds the average annual acreage burned in recent years in the United States, which has ranged from 4 to 10 million hectares (10 to 25 million acres), with significant variability due to factors like weather conditions and land use practices. It's important to note that regional variations existed in pre-Columbian fire regimes. For example, areas with predominantly grasslands or open forests, like the Great Plains and the Southeastern United States, likely experienced more frequent fires compared to densely forested regions. However, it is worth mentioning that comparing pre-Columbian fire regimes to modern wildfire patterns is complex due to changes in land use, fire suppression policies, climate, and other factors since European settlement. Modern land management practices, including fire suppression and landscape fragmentation, have disrupted traditional fire regimes, resulting in altered fuel loads and ecosystem dynamics. While the precise acreage comparisons are challenging, it is generally accepted that pre-Columbian fire regimes played a significant role in shaping North American landscapes, and efforts are underway to integrate indigenous knowledge and practices into contemporary land management strategies to mitigate the risks of larger and more destructive wildfires. Question: Is there any historical evidence for smoke from pre-Columbian wildfires reaching continental Europe? Response: There is no direct historical evidence to suggest that smoke from pre-Columbian wildfires in North America reached continental Europe. The distance between the continents, combined with the dispersion and dilution of smoke particles over such a vast expanse of ocean, makes it highly unlikely for the smoke to have traveled that far and been detectable in Europe. It's important to note that the technology and means of communication during pre-Columbian times were limited compared to today. Historical records from that era are scarce, and there is no documented evidence or accounts of smoke from North American wildfires reaching Europe during that time. Smoke particles from large-scale wildfires can indeed be carried over long distances by atmospheric currents, but the dispersion and dilution processes generally result in significantly reduced smoke concentrations as the distance increases. It is more common for smoke from large wildfires to impact nearby regions or potentially cross smaller bodies of water, but the chances of it reaching across the Atlantic Ocean to Europe are extremely remote. It is worth mentioning that there may have been other natural phenomena or events, such as volcanic eruptions or dust storms, that could have transported particles to Europe from North America, but these would be unrelated to pre-Columbian wildfires. In summary, there is no historical evidence to support the idea that smoke from pre-Columbian wildfires in North America reached continental Europe. Question: Is there evidence for smoke from wildfires in recent years reaching Europe? Response: Yes, there is evidence to suggest that smoke from wildfires in recent years has reached Europe. The transport of smoke particles over long distances is influenced by atmospheric conditions, wind patterns, and the size and intensity of the wildfires. While most of the smoke from wildfires tends to remain localized and affect nearby areas, under certain conditions, it can be carried over vast distances. In recent years, large-scale wildfires, such as those in North America, Siberia, and Australia, have produced significant amounts of smoke that have been transported across continents and even reached Europe. The smoke plumes can be detected through satellite imagery, air quality monitoring stations, and atmospheric modeling. For example, in 2017 and 2018, wildfires in North America, particularly in western Canada and the western United States, produced substantial smoke that traveled across the Atlantic Ocean and affected parts of Europe. Satellite images showed the presence of smoke aerosols over Europe, and air quality monitors detected elevated levels of particulate matter related to the wildfires. Similarly, during the devastating Australian bushfire season in late 2019 and early 2020, smoke plumes were observed to travel across the Pacific Ocean and reach South America and even parts of Africa. These instances demonstrate that, under certain conditions, smoke from large-scale wildfires can indeed be transported over long distances and impact regions far away from the source of the fires. However, it's important to note that the concentration and impact of the smoke diminishes as it travels, and it may become more diluted and less harmful compared to areas closer to the wildfires.

Exactly - prairie fires, i.e. grass and brush. I would be interested more in the total weight of biomass burning versus the number of acres. Maybe 10x the number of acres burned, but it couldn’t produce the quantity of smoke that these modern wildfires produce. Otherwise, there would almost certainly be a thick pall of smoke making it all the way across the Atlantic each summer. This would call it into question the significance of dry fogs and red sunsets that are used to detect ancient volcanic eruptions - they would have been an annual occurrence. Moreover, if smoke from the Americas had been present, the Europeans would have known a vast continent must exist to the west but they didn’t, which to me would strongly imply smoke from the Americas never reached Europe in significant quantities.

I'd welcome alternative explanations, but I've certainly never seen anything like this in the month of May in my 36 years on earth. July through September, maybe. But May? Look at this, the smoke layer is about to circumnavigate the globe like volcanic aersols. At the same time, there's a smoky front dropping south across the U.S. with some sort of smoke-filled cyclone brewing in western Canada amid massive flare-ups from seemingly dozens of point sources spread across 3 Canadian provinces.

Hazy all the way down here in Pennsylvania, as it has been off and on for past week or so. I almost wonder if this will cause a volcanic winter / year without a summer. What is causing all of this wildfire smoke? I've never seen such extensive wildfires in that region in early-mid May. Almost like they are being deliberately set to coincide with peak sun angle / longest days of the year to try and offset/hide the global warming with the looming strong El Nino.

Funny, I didn't even see your post before I shared that link. Sounds like Indiana was even colder than the UP in the 1830s and 1840s, if this is true: We also know by looking at Andrew’s data that the average temperature was 10 degrees colder from 1840 to 1873 where the average temperature was 40 degrees. The same period 100 years later 1940 to 1973 had an average temperature of 50 degrees. The other remarkable thing is that comparing Andrews saw much colder temperatures with highs in the 60s and 70s during the summer and in the 30s for lows in August.

I was doing some research, and came across this. Very interesting stuff. https://www.wane.com/news/fort-waynes-first-weatherman/

All decadal averages ranked from highest to lowest: Buffalo [Normal: 45.6F] Buffalo Crib Water Temperature Cleveland [Normal: 50.4F] Detroit [Normal: 48.9F]

Interesting. Here is what I have for Cleveland, Buffalo and Detroit, with the expanded data sets I have been creating. Cleveland (1855-2023) 1855-1870: Hyde, Smithsonian Institution [7a, 2p, 9p mean] 1871-2023: official thread [downtown until 1940, then at CLE airport] Top Twenty Warmest Top Twenty Coldest Buffalo (1831-1832, 1841-1844, 1854, 1858-present) Early records at Buffalo Barracks - Signal Service (7 a, 2p, 9p mean, and later average of sunrise & 3 pm) 1858-1870: uncertain, presumably Smithsonian Institution - from early Monthly Weather Review, climatology of Buffalo 1871-1873: Weather Bureau, but unofficial [average of 7a, 2p, 9p mean] 1874-present: official threaded record [downtown until around 1940, then at airport] Top 20 Warmest Top 20 Coldest Lake Erie Water Temperature, at Buffalo water intake crib (1927-present) Detroit (1836-1846, 1849-1851, 1871-present) First few years at Fort Dearbornville, then at Detroit Barracks [7 a, 2 p, 9p average, until 1840s, then mean of sunrise and 3 pm] 1871-1873: Weather Bureau, but unofficial [average of 7a, 2p, 9p mean] 1874-present: official threaded record [downtown through 1933, at City Airport until 1966, then Metro Wayne airport] Top 20 Warmest Top 20 Coldest