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TheClimateChanger

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  1. TheClimateChanger
    Sorry, I edited my reply. I was still viewing the old map. Refreshed to the new one when I posted. My edit: Actually they just changed it. I was wrong. Now they show generally less than a tenth of inch of icing. I had to refresh my browser for the new map.
  2. TheClimateChanger
    Actually they just changed it. I was wrong. Now they show generally less than a tenth of inch of icing. I had to refresh my browser for the new map.
  3. TheClimateChanger
    Really I think with the current trends, we could see all zones get bumped up one tier. Might be more in line with a blend of the NAM/GFS at this point. Would also coordinate better with the snowfall map from NWS CLE which has 6-8 in the southern counties.
  4. TheClimateChanger
    It looks like the NWS updated the expected snowfall map. Looks like totals have been bumped up a bit. I think it looks pretty reasonable at the moment. The 2.3 inch amount is for downtown Pittsburgh. The airport would be closer to the 3" line - probably checking in about 2.8 or 2.9 taking this forecast literally. I'd say it looks good, but I might place the initial over/under value for the airport closer to 4". The NWS is also forecasting the potential for 0.2-0.3" of ice through much of the area.
  5. TheClimateChanger
    I saw this in the Ohio thread from a TV meteorologist in Cleveland. Brings a foot and a half of snow all the way to the Ohio River in eastern Ohio... what model is showing that? I thought this might raise spirits here though. Lol.
  6. TheClimateChanger
    I don't really understand why the forecast still has mid and upper 30s on Thursday? Even the warmer NAM has temps below freezing by daybreak, and drops it into the upper 20s during the afternoon Thursday. GFS shows mid 20s Thursday afternoon. If temps are 25-28F, that also calls into question the theory that the ice won't accumulate much at 31F, no?
  7. TheClimateChanger
    Probably too late in the game to get to Pittsburgh, but it is now starting to show heavy snow in parts of the NWS office's CWA. Even the much warmer NAM now brings 8-12"+ to Mercer, Venango, and Forest Counties. Far cry from the 3-6" in the WSW. Might be able to get those higher totals to come down another row of counties further south though.
  8. TheClimateChanger
    This is one case where the maps that include sleet accumulation are probably more realistic, rather than a sudden decrease from 12" of snow to 0" of snow.
  9. TheClimateChanger
    It does try to nose the warmth back up, which pushes the sleet back over Pittsburgh. At 21Z Thursday, its 30F at PIT (versus 31F on the prior run), but Charleston, WV is 10 degrees colder at the same time than the prior run (40F versus 50F).
  10. TheClimateChanger
    Oh yeah, it is. Big time. Mix line down near Greene/Washington County border - and this is only early afternoon Thursday!
  11. TheClimateChanger
    NAM caving? I haven't even looked at the sensible weather yet, but the 2M temperature at 15Z on Thursday (what is that about 1 PM, I think?) in Pittsburgh is now shown on the 12z run as 27F in Pittsburgh versus 31F at the same time on the 6z run.
  12. TheClimateChanger
    Well, this particular map does include sleet so it’s inflated somewhat due to that in the south. But I liked it because it looks impressive and really screws over the typical north and west crowd.
  13. TheClimateChanger
    I think that's the one missing variable. If we can get that boundary through, then winds shift to the north. With north winds, the typical warm nose is non-existent at least at the surface which would allow any mode of wintry precipitation to occur over plain rain.
  14. TheClimateChanger
    That's a depth positive change map, which includes sleet as snowfall... similar to this one from Pivotal:
  15. TheClimateChanger
  16. TheClimateChanger
    Why are they so different? I think it was hour 72 or somewhere around there... the NAM had Charleston, WV at 55, and the GFS at 32?
  17. TheClimateChanger
    10:1 Ratio:
  18. TheClimateChanger
    0z GFS (Kuchera ratio):
  19. TheClimateChanger
    The 0z GFS still looks like a decent hit.
  20. TheClimateChanger
    Well, alrighty then, better get the generator ready…
  21. TheClimateChanger
    Here's the updated map through Friday morning. Looks reasonable, except there's a strange band across the SE portion where snowfall suddenly jumps 2+" across no more than like 5 miles.
  22. TheClimateChanger
    Not much snow on the NAM, but it does seem to be trending towards a pretty substantial mixed precipitation event. Shows about 1-2" of sleet or sleet/snow mix in the north, with a band of up to an inch of freezing rain through the metro area.
  23. TheClimateChanger
    Here's the official NWS forecast through Thursday at 7 PM:
  24. TheClimateChanger
  25. TheClimateChanger
    Well, it's supposed to account for melting and other effects. But it's only showing a couple inches of change between now and Thursday evening. It does seem to keep temperatures mostly below 40.
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