TheClimateChanger

And the 18z run was back up to 90, with high humidity. Wonder what the 00z run will show?

The 18z GFS didn't look too bad. Monday looked like the day with the most widespread clouds and (thunder)showers, keeping temperatures in the mid 70s. Tuesday's activity looked less numerous, with temperatures climbing in to the mid 80s. The rest of the week just looks like typical dog days of summer stuff, with heat and humidity - upper 80s to near 90, and scattered thunderstorms around each and every day. Didn't look like any washouts over that period, just hit or miss activity... but of course there could be locally heavy rainfall with any thunderstorms.

A few other locations across central Pennsylvania came within a few degrees of record highs today... 83F in Bradford (record: 87F; in 1987); 92F in Williamsport (record: 95F; in 1911, 1922, and 1936); and 88F in Altoona (record: 90F, in 1952). Meanwhile, Johnstown fell 21F short of its record. Very difficult for Johnstown to ever set record highs in the summer since the old records were much lower in elevation and the airport is on a mountain.

000SXUS71 KPBZ 122122RERDUJRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA0521 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2022...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DUBOIS PA...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 89 WAS SET AT DUBOIS PA TODAY.THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 88 SET IN 2005.$$

90 at AGC, but only 86 at PIT.

Why does the GFS and its ensembles always show a warm tongue extending into western Pennsylvania? It doesn't look based in reality at all. I've never really taken a close look at the long range modeled temperatures, but almost invariably it shows Pittsburgh and southwest Pennsylvania warmer than locations that have warmer average high temperatures (in some cases, by several degrees). This image isn't cherrypicked - the warm tongue is present throughout the model run to varying degrees. But you see here it shows the 2PM temperature band (10-90th percentile) for July 27 to be 79-96 in Pittsburgh, but 75-91 in Columbus, 77-94 in Cincinnati, 76-94 in Indianapolis - yet these are all places that are about 2-4 degrees warmer on average. It even shows us warmer than the coastal plain (even DC/Baltimore area) which is a few to several degrees warmer. Chicago is always oddly cool, even though its actually 2 degrees warmer on average. Even Cleveland has an average high temperature one degree warmer, but invariably it shows Pittsburgh a couple to several degrees warmer. Has anyone ever noticed this phenomenon before?

000SXUS71 KPBZ 112129RERDUJRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA528 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2022...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DUBOIS PA...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 WAS SET AT DUBOIS PA TODAY.THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 86 SET IN 1987.$$

Backed off a bit on Wednesday, but still a pretty warm day (mid to upper 80s). And it does show near 90 this coming Saturday, with low 90s on Sunday. The extreme heat on the GFS begins a little after the end of the Euro run. Still looks like a very hot pattern overall on the Euro. Shows Thursday morning in the low 70s, with 19C H85 temperatures. Probably would see 90+ by Thursday in this regime.

Also looks quite dry. Well under an inch of rain over the entire 16-day run.

Yes, looks like it will be a toasty week. I guess it might depend on convection. Could see more rain chances as the ridge builds closer. On another note, actually surprised its 2.1 degrees above normal this month so far. Hasn't seemed too hot... I guess the lower humidity has helped. The mean temperature so far has been 75.0F, and that may come a bit if we do get some of the bigger heat next week. Still quite a bit milder than two years ago, when the mean temperature was 77.3F - which was the hottest July since records have been kept at the airport locations (station thread moved to AGC in July 1935 and PIT in September 1952) and the second hottest month at either airport site behind August 1995 (77.7F). It was the hottest July in the entire station thread since July 1934 (77.7F), when records were still kept at the weather service office in the city. I didn't realize that July 2020 was that anomalous.

Well, the 12z run has backed off the big heat locally. But still looks rather dry. In fact, looks fairly dry for much of the country with the exception of the Texas gulf coast and southeast. The Great Plains bakes though.

I don't know. If this were to come to fruition, I would think that, with the right weather pattern, there could be an all out inferno mid to late July.

06z GFS brings the drought and heat for the Keystone State. Less than a quarter inch of rain at PIT through the end of the run - almost all falling tomorrow night, then completely dry thereafter. Temperatures stay fairly seasonable through next Friday, but then start to heat up on Saturday the 16th through to the end of the run. Obviously still pretty far away, but shows a week or more of 90s, including a few days in the upper 90s and low 100s. I think I saw Providence, RI at 107F on one afternoon.

This doesn't look too promising. That rain over the southwest corner of the state is mostly in the first 36 hours of the run, and it appears to have overestimated last night's rainfall (showing 2 to 3 tenths of an inch overnight). 6z was slightly wetter, but still rather dry.

Indeed, although a little misleading since he only took measurements irregularly. The highest reading was 76 at 1:00 pm. Presumably this is local solar time, since not only did daylight saving time not exist then, it also predates standard time. So this would be about 2:05 pm EDT, or reasonably close to maximum heating. Interestingly, the modern normal high in Philly is in the upper 80s, but the highest temperatures observed by Ben that month were 84F at 5:20 pm LST on July 22; 83-1/2 F at 6 and 7 pm LST on July 27; 83-1/3 F at 1 pm on July 28; and 82-3/4 at 12 pm on July 28. Given the small ranges, it looks like the thermometer was probably in a sheltered window sill, so I don't now how much value this has from a climate standpoint.

Not sure we will. Most recent run of the HRRR only gets us to around 83F or 84F as it shows cloudiness lingering well into the afternoon. Earlier runs were showing upper 80s but had skies clearing sooner.

Wow, I didn't realize how dry it's been over such a large expanse. I was just looking at the numbers since around June 14/15, and parts of multiple states have seen essentially no rainfall over that period. Erie, PA (0.02"), several sites in Indiana with only a few hundredths of an inch, Detroit, MI (0.11"). Most sites under a quarter of an inch, with a few 1"+ but those were generally from one or two hit-or-miss events over that stretch. Even in eastern IA, it looks better with 2"+ generally but almost all of that from a single day. And other locations (i.e., Burlington) show little if any rain over that stretch (0.17"). The dryness extends all the way into western New York - Buffalo has had less than 1/3 of an inch since June 9.

No, the NWS website simply didn't report the 19:56 observation, which is the METAR in which the 6-hour maximum would have been reported. Here is the missing observation showing a high of 32.8C: KCXY 302356Z 00000KT 10SM CLR 31/12 A3012 RMK AO2 SLP197 T03110122 10328 20306 55003

Good post. Bradford reached 90 on June 16, and a whopping 93 on June 22. Also an 89 degree reading on June 21. Prior to this year, the warmest June reading dating back to 1958 (when observations began at the airport) was 89, set in 2021 (June 29), 1994 (June 15 & 17), and 1988 (June 25). Who would ever think that Bradford (at 2105' elevation) would have more 90+ days than Central Park in June, and a maximum monthly reading 3 degrees higher? Even the mean maximum is only 0.4F lower.

Wasn't too bad IMBY. The (empty) garbage cans did blow around a bit, but I didn’t see any tree limbs down or anything like. It did rain quite heavily for a time, which was somewhat needed as the heat and sun had dried things out a lot (and it looks like rain is going to be limited for the next week or so).

I don't know. It is a little weird. I saw Bradford (2106' feet near the NY border) was 93 degrees yesterday. That was the highest June temperature ever recorded at the airport, dating to 1958. Actually beat the record of 90 set just last by three degrees. Just goes to show how hot it was aloft yesterday. I saw some of the models had H85 temps up to 23C yesterday.

93 degrees at Bradford today (elevation: 2106'). That's the highest temperature ever recorded there in the month of June dating back to 1958. Surpassed the previous monthly record of 90 set one week ago today by a whopping three degrees! The table below hasn't been updated for today's reading, and shows the highest temp as 90F from earlier this month. Edit: Also ties 3 other dates for the 5th highest temperature of any month. Bradford reached 97 on July 22, 2011; 97 on July 16, 1988; 95 on July 21, 2011; 94 on July 8, 1988; 93 on July 7, 1988; 93 on July 6, 1988; and 93 on August 2, 1988. No other readings since 1958 have exceeded 92 degrees. 1 2022 90 9 2 2021 89 0 - 1994 89 0 - 1988 89 0 5 2020 88 0 - 2018 88 0 - 2012 88 0 - 2011 88 0 - 1991 88 0 - 1968 88 0 11 2017 87 0 - 2005 87 0 - 1993 87 0 - 1987 87 0 - 1969 87 0 - 1966 87 0 - 1964 87 0 - 1963 87 0 19 2013 86 0 - 2008 86 0 - 2007 86 0 - 2003 86 0 - 2001 86 0 - 1999 86 0 - 1998 86 0 - 1990 86 0 - 1975 86 0 - 1967 86 0 - 1959 86 0 30 2019 85 0 - 2006 85 0 - 2004 85 0 - 2002 85 0 - 1984 85 0 - 1981 85 0 - 1976 85 0 - 1973 85 0 38 2016 84 0 - 2015 84 0 - 2014 84 0 - 2010 84 0 - 2000 84 0 - 1997 84 0 - 1989 84 0 - 1986 84 0 - 1971 84 0 - 1965 84 0 48 2009 83 0 - 1980 83 0 - 1978 83 0 - 1974 83 0 - 1961 83 0 53 1992 82 0 - 1983 82 0 - 1979 82 0 - 1977 82 0 - 1970 82 0 - 1962 82 0 - 1958 82 0 60 1960 81 0 61 1972 80 0 62 1982 79 0 63 1985 77 0 1996 M 30 1995 M 30

High was 94 at 2:59, low was 71 exactly one hour later.

Well just outside the Midwest but within the Upper Ohio Valley, Beaver Falls, Pennsylvania reached a temperature of 98F. But that's an AWOS, so probably needs an asterisk: https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBVI.html Highest hourly heat index on any date in the month of June on record at the Youngstown-Warren Regional Airport (dating to 1947) of 105F at 3 PM today, breaking the record of 104F set just week ago.

I went to the website cited in that article and generated this for KPIT. It uses available hourly data for the temp and dew point to generate a heat index. Extends back to 1945. According to this, since 1945, the maximum hourly heat index at PIT was 106F observed at 2 PM on June 27, 1978. Last week's heat wave tied the highest recorded heat indices for any June day (dating to 1945) for the 8 PM hour (96F) and 10 PM hour (91F). Keep in mind since this is based solely on hourly data, there could be a higher intra-hour reading. Here's the link: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=PA_ASOS&zstation=PIT&month=jun&var=max_feel&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png