TheClimateChanger

000SXUS71 KPBZ 142151RERDUJRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA0549 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2024...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DUBOIS PA...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES WAS SET AT DUBOIS PA TODAY.THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 82 DEGREES SET IN 2005.$$MILCAREK

000SXUS71 KPBZ 142151RERDUJRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA0549 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2024...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DUBOIS PA...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES WAS SET AT DUBOIS PA TODAY.THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 82 DEGREES SET IN 2005.$$MILCAREK

The 1971-2000 normal and 1981-2010 normal for BWI for the month of December was 36.7F. The mean for those periods was 37.7F and 37.3F, respectively, but the normal appears to have been adjusted downward to account for changes in equipment. 2016 2008 2007 2004

2004, 2007, 2008, and 2016 were all warmer than normal based on the normals in place at the time [some by fairly substantial margins]. They jacked up what's considered "normal" at BWI in December by nearly 2F in 2021.

PIT is 1.6F below normal through the 12th, but the next several days should get us back to normal [or above]. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks from yesterday look like an inferno for most of the eastern US, so we should be well-positioned for another warmer than normal month.

I'm just repeating what others have told me about only the maximum temperatures counting. Take it up with them.

I was told only daytime maxima count in the warm season here, and those are currently 3F below normal, and should come in above normal for the next several days at a minimum. By contrast, lows are nearly 7F below normal. The drought and unusually low humidity is clearly enhancing the negative departures through anomalous diurnal ranges.

Summer 2024 finished in fourth place nationally behind 1936, 2021 & 2022.

I mean just compare the last two decades of U.S. CRN data and/or US48 satellite derived data (you can even use the latter back to 1979) - neither of which is subject to any TOBs adjustment - to Martz's "raw" data. It's nonsense.

I don't even believe Martz's graphic is accurate. There's no way even the raw data would show 2019 as one of the coldest years. A so-called meteorology student really wants to claim 2019 was colder than the late 70s or some of the other historically cold years in the 19th century and early 20th century. Where was the feet of snow, days and days of below zero weather, etc.? What a joke! I don't even need a thermometer to tell me that's a load of bullcrap. 2019 wasn't even close to the coldest of that decade - years like 2014 & 2015 were obviously colder, which is what the actual data shows. Moreover, deniers used to say in the 1990s and early 2000s, that we were in a warm cycle comparable to the 1930s to 1950s, and it would soon start cooling. Obviously, it has instead continued to warm. But what even was the point of that discussion if that era was actually not warm and instead about the same as the so-called "cold cycle" in the late 1950s to 1980 era? It's laughably stupid. I suspect there's something else going on in that chart - not just TOBs. Like not factoring in station changes [location, elevation, makeup] and/or not properly gridding the data, but instead just taking a mean of whatever station data is available.

Martz has previously said the observers were "smart off" to reset the high temperature on the following day. But apparently they weren't smart enough to follow instructions and conform to the observational standards that were in place at the time.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but unless current warming is outside of the range of modeled projections, there's no need to consider any of these other factors and the warming can be fully explained by greenhouse gas emissions [and other factors already considered in the modeling].

Probably the only thing stopping a third consecutive year of record low gauge heights on the lower Mississippi. Currently forecast to approach -9 feet at Memphis (which is where the data below is from).

Using 0C/32F, the only areas from 1991-2020 that would qualify as subtropical would be the Philadelphia metro area. Minimum monthly average is 34.0F at PHL and 33.4F at PNE. Also, some areas right along the Mason-Dixon line would qualify marginally. At HGR [Hagerstown, Md.], minimum average monthly temperature is 32.0F and at MGW [Morgantown, W. Va.] 32.1F. Using data from the past 15 years, however, additional areas would qualify, including parts of the Harrisburg area. Average monthly minimum (2010-2024) is 31.5F at MDT, but 32.3F at CXY. So right on the border of continental and subtropical climates, as defined by Koppen, in parts of the Susquehanna Valley over the past 15 years.

Only if you use the traditional -3C isotherm for the coldest month as the boundary between subtropical & continental. Typically, 0C is used, especially in North America.

Latest drought monitor from this morning shows continued expansion of drought conditions across the Ohio Valley. Zanesville has had just 0.88" since July 17, with 0.58" of that falling on July 29. Really only one legitimate chance for rain over the next 10 days there.

Looks like the cold front moving across the region today and tomorrow should push all of the smoke away for awhile. Perhaps a short window behind the cold front where some smoke can mix down to the surface even across Iowa and Illinois, although concentrations look to stay fairly low so the impact to air quality should be fairly small.

If you look carefully at the above graphic, you will notice more warming has occurred from the 1990s to today than had occurred from the 1860s to 2000 [or at least a similar degree of warming].

For the youngsters today, don't let Dr. Spencer gaslight you into believing the 1990s were unusually cold. The 1990s were the hottest decade of all time at that point in history. Even Dr. Spencer used to argue it was part of some cylical warming trend. He is the most wrong "scientist" of all time. This is how the 1990s used to be displayed when I was growing up: Source: The 1990s was the warmest decade ever recorded instrumentally. The last... | Download Scientific Diagram (researchgate.net)

So surreal to see the "warmest decade of all time" [the 1990s - which many of y'all on Wright Weather and later on EasternUsWx.com incorrectly suggested was a "warm cycle" but which I, as a young child, I might add, correctly indicated would be the coldest decade of the rest of your lives] - now appear as frigid cold. I mean it looks colder than the 1800s looked back in the 1990s. Unreal.

After reviewing the first several posts of the Fall 2023 thread, I can say we are off to a much more fall-like start to September than last year.

Figured I'd get a fall thread going, now that it's September.

Maybe someone needs to get an autumn/fall thread going, now that we are into the month of September?

Some high-altitude wildfire smoke pinwheeling through today.