TheClimateChanger

Not sure if the RAP is tracking the same storm as the other models, or if a weenie took over the controls?

Is the RAP even tracking the same storm as the other models?

Gotta love the RAP.

Not bad. Full run says a foot at 10:1 ratio.

Note that neither of these maps would include any accumulated sleet that occurs. Also, they are Kuchera maps but they are almost identical (or even lower) for our region than the 10:1 maps, since the Kuchera ratio for this event would generally be around 10:1 due to the warm nose aloft.

The HRRR is also bringing decent totals in the northwest of the city:

RAP looks like a big hit. Looks like the short, range rapid refresh models have done a 180 on the storm.

I don't know. The GFS moved north a bit, but the European moved south. They actually seem quite similar now, although the European is drier in general. Here was the GFS 10:1 map for reference:

Not too bad. I mean not a lot, but it has Pittsburgh getting nearly as much as Cleveland, especially at the PIT airport which is depicted to get between 6 and 7 inches. Actually has a relative maxima through northern Beaver and Butler Counties. But overall the Euro is not impressed at all.

Yeah, you are right. And it's not exactly dry. Still shows 2" of total precipitation nosing into western Allegheny, with a widespread 1.3-1.8" for all of northern Ohio. I'm actually a little bit surprised the snow map is as paltry as it is for those areas (even at 10:1). Must be a bit more mixed precipitation up that way versus the GFS solution.

This one's coming south, gentlemen. Looks good.

By the time it trends here, might be under 6" everywhere.

Our south ticks are killing the storm. Now looks like a rather pedestrian snow event (7-10 inches) for most of northern Ohio and western New York. Maybe a few lollipops up to a foot in the favored areas with a bit of lake/orographic enhancement.

I'd say a bit more than a slight tick. Now gets heavier snows (6, 7 inches) into parts of Beaver and Butler Counties. Not quite up to the GFS's totals of around a foot. But certainly increases likelihood of a decent snowfall (5"+) for north and west of the city.

Baby steps on the Euro:

Unfortunately, the short-term Canadian model still wants to send this storm up to, well, Canada:

I don't know, guys. This pesky GFS just doesn't want to budge. Looks like it's going to just keep holding pat until all the other models converge onto its idea.

If the sleet were to somehow fall as snow:

Not bad. Very subtle slight south shift in highest snow totals. Now brings a foot to most of Beaver and Butler Counties, as well as NW Allegheny.

I think we legitimately could get 2-4 inches of sleet, maybe 5 in spots, if these models are correct (probably with some snow mixed in too).

Posting this not as a snowfall map, but to show just how much sleet would be possible on the NAM. This map shows all precipitation falling as sleet and snow as 10:1, so that means about 1.8" of precipitation is to fall as snow or sleet - almost all of which falls as sleet. Using a more realistic 3:1 or 4:1 ratio for sleet would mean 5.4-7.2" of sleet...

Yeah, sleet is like 3:1, maybe 4:1. Would take a full inch of precipitation to lay down 3" of sleet. I will say normally when we get sleet, there is at least some mangled snowflakes mixed in. And perhaps the occasional changeover to heavy, wet snow with dynamic cooling of the column during periods of heavier precipitation. So we could get a bit more accumulation than the models are showing. It seems the Pivotal algorithms are set up to completely discard mixed precipitation as snowfall, which is why it keeps showing the razor sharp cutoff from 12+ to little or nothing.

Sorry, I edited my reply. I was still viewing the old map. Refreshed to the new one when I posted. My edit: Actually they just changed it. I was wrong. Now they show generally less than a tenth of inch of icing. I had to refresh my browser for the new map.