TheClimateChanger

All this wintertime warmth at Dayton, and watch, you are probably going to be 89'd all summer long.

Would be funny if Harrisburg picked up a foot and had more snow than Erie on the season midway through February.

Brutal. At least the 3K still gives us a couple of inches.

Hmm, I'm taking the under here.

Well, I always get pushback when I use mean temperatures and the response is always high temperatures are more important. Applying that logic fairly, it was easily the warmest first 10 days of February:

Yes, this is what I was getting at it. Dayton only has 5 periods with two day totals of a foot or more dating back to the 19th century (ignoring the double counting of the 1978 blizzard).

18z GEFS is at a mean of 6.3” for the city, albeit assuming 10-1 ratio (which is probably too high).

This is true. When I noted we haven’t had a 12” calendar day since 1994, I was playing around on xMacis with other locations, and Dayton has only ever had one day with 12” or more (and only barely) in 1978. I think warning criteria might be 4” there, but they are even worse for big storm climatology. Same deal with Columbus where I think warning criteria is the same as Pittsburgh.

Looks like we’ve lost the HRRR. Too far south and east for most of us to get more than a couple of inches, using actual model ratios.

Is thundersnow possible with this system?

Impressive, and this 8.3” is with actual modeled ratios. This looks like it could be a big one.

Wouldn’t worry too much about the global models at this time frame. Lower resolution makes it harder to model this type of a dynamic system with marginal thermals.

Looks pretty solid to me, especially with 10:1 ratios.

Looks like a classic late spring snowstorm. Sort of reminiscent of that March 20-21, 2018 event, which brought up to 10.5” at the airport if I recall correctly. I think we were looking at 2-4” heading into that event. Only question is how far north this event tracks. Looks like somebody will have a nice accumulation. As is the case with spring snows, shouldn’t last too long as temperatures should be above freezing most days.

Crazy stuff. This must be a 1 in 1000-year winter heat wave up there, but barely registering with our derelict media these days. Minneapolis Green Bay Milwaukee

Blowing snow every chance you get and being situated on a north facing slope? Plus, many recent overnights have been below freezing, potentially allowing some or all of the snow melting during the day to be replaced. Humidity levels have also been low, which would limit melting. Boston Mills has a 36" base, despite 6" of snow on the season.

With numbers like these, Ohio might as well be the new Tennessee. Just across the river...

Don’t forget to share the bad news too.

Funny how it used to always be the Kuchera maps that were the clown maps, and now it's the 10:1 ratio maps.

In addition to xMacis missing several days of snowfall from that winter, including the 6.6" snowstorm on January 1st, there are several periods of observations that are physically impossible. Snow depth increases by 3.0" from 1-14 to 1-16, on 2.7" of new snowfall. Snowfall increases from 19.9" at 7 pm on 1/30 to 22.7" at 7 pm on 1/31 - an increase of 2.8" with a two-day total snowfall of 2.3". Meaning even if all of the snow on the 30th fell after 7 pm, depth increased by at least a half inch more than reported snowfall. And, of course, depth proceeds to increase by nearly nine inches between 1/31 and 2/1, with only another 0.9" of snow reported. As noted, the 4 days of 30"+ snow depth are more than all other years combined in the threaded record. Even in December 2017, when nearly 100" is alleged to have fallen, depth never exceeded 27". Look, nearly 43" over two days with a peak depth of 27". Compare that to these meticulous, uninflated numbers from 1944-45.

Sharing a post from @mitchnickin the Central PA forum showing the GEFS (see link above). Looks like a miss or minor event on the majority of ensemble members (although there are a couple/few big hits).

I will say the 24-hour period from 12z 12/13 to 12z 12/14 looks solid. 5.0" using Kuchera ratios, and 7.3" at 10:1 [probably too high with marginal temps], and this is only 5 days out [rather than some distant, remote possibility]. But other than that, not too many big threats.

Which run? I was unimpressed by the 12Z which had Pittsburgh at 6.7" and more like 5-6" at KPIT through the entire run. North Carolina gets dumped on though - 22" at Greensboro and a foot at Raleigh-Durham. Edit: Doesn't show the North Carolina event until the 19th-20th, and Pittsburgh is in the upper 30s for highs those days.