MJO812

For now the models lost it but the pattern does support it.

Earthlight "The threat for a significant storm along the East Coast from 10/25 - 10/30 can be traced back to the larger scale pattern evolution in the North Pacific Ocean. A jet extension and poleward amplification of a ridge into British Columbia jump starts the pattern change."

55 right now in Brooklyn

18z gfs shows a strong coastal rainstorm for the area

Agree with snow possible in New England

Big storm is quite possible with the pattern depicted.

Big storm is quite possible with the pattern depicted.

Euro crushes new england at 240

Larry Cogrove "The turn to colder air over much of the U.S. in this past week is really only the start of some major weather changes. Because as we approach Halloween, the threat for a large scale major storm and follow-up cold spell will be increasing. A prominent Kelvin wave is solidifying over the westernmost Pacific Ocean above Indonesia. As the Madden-Julian Oscillation is expanding eastward, this impulse may link with the polar westerlies (see shortwaves in the PRC and east of Japan), and start the process of amplifying the jet stream with a ridge over Alaska and western/northern Canada. That action would force digging of a 500MB shortwave into the lower Great Plains around Oct 25. Now this is the important part! At the same time that cold air drainage and central U.S. disturbance is taking shape, the tropical Atlantic Basin may supply a warm-core impulse or moisture fetch into the Gulf of Mexico. There are two viable candidates for warm-core cyclogenesis (Caribbean Sea and Lesser Antilles), and one or both of these systems could get drawn into the deepening extratropical storm as it approaches Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard Oct 27-29."

Euro is also gearing up for the big storm at the end

Maybe Strong signal for a big storm for the end of the month.

49 here right now

Storm signal at the end of this month?

Holy! Did you see the new UKMET? It shows the most anomalously cold air on the planet located over the eastern USA during winter 2018-19, a big time trend compared to the previous run. Ben Noll Every model is pointing to a cold and snowy winter for the east. Hopefully it stays like that.

Beautiful outside

Gefs has a big cooldown towards later October

Hwrf is still showing lot of rain later for the NJ coast and NYC/ LI.

12z Nam Looks like NJ and LI will get alot of rain.

Agree Some areas will pick up a quick 1-3 inches from that.

We have thrown out the hurricane models once before and got burned for it. We will see what happens later.

Hurricane models still show alot of rain for the area while the other models don't show alot.

Hmon is also very close to the area

Models are slightly more northwest with the remnants of Michael for our area. We will still see some rain but the question is how much ?

Legit possibility if it phases with the trough

The last hurricane to hit the Panhandle was Opal. We all know how that following winter was . JB "Years with tropical cyclones coming up into the gulf in October and having impact are signal for cold December in many cases. Why? MJO phases that help with tropical cyclones can show up again in December and they are cold phases for US at that time of the year "