SnowenOutThere

That was a more unique experience than I expected. Whipping wind the whole time with grapuel snow mix pelting me.

Waiting for the squall to hit in like 10 minutes.

0z Euro is worse. NS completely crushes instead of partial phase for Jan 4th. Happy 2026

Seriously looking at this possibility we need the NS to slow down in relation to the southern shortwave as right now it is outrunning our southern piece by a solid 12-24 hours. While obviously this would be a major change its not altogether impossible if pieces start moving this way by tomorrow morning. Additionally, our southern shortwave moving further north (which is the trend considering our block failing to form) would help in this process. Another thing to note is a small piece of energy detached from our shortwave out west which seems to help move it push the precip north and constructively interact with the NS. Looking at the recent Euro run (top) vs old run (bottom) this is quite clear to see. Now that previous discussion was focused on salvaging this into a decent snowstorm. If instead we set our sights on a far more reasonable coating to 1inch storm we just need the Euro as it is to be right. Though, an interesting solution is the NAM. The NAM opts to have no NS interaction and instead brings a stronger southern vort north on its own. While this has the thermals shot (partially due to no cold push I assume) it manages to get a solid quarter inch of ice in the area. As for now all we can do is see which way the models evolve. Though, it wouldn't surprise me to see this creep north as @Terpeast mentioned with the blocking up north failing to materialize.

Watch this be a reverse Feb 20 type bust where we manage to get a phase of the NS and southern energy within 5 days of the event.

The 5h trend is impressive. Going from a complete wall to a nice gap that could allow amplification is nice. TBH I was ignoring this one but will be paying attention now on out.

You can't cliff jump if nobody is there.

Sleep lmao

I plan to hike Dolly Sods or Blackwater falls the 2nd of Jan. Does anyone know the best (aka most plowed) way to get into those areas? I have a 2011 Honda CRV which has good all wheel drive but low clearance (7in) so I probably shouldn't try driving it on 10 inches of fresh snow.

Euro brings us a small hit tonight

I’m down with running back January 3rd of last year. Sorta funny how that squall kicked off an active period too!

We may have different definitions of "teeing up a hit". The h5 is way too large and not amplified.

Cmon Ji think about it this way, we just gained over an inch of rain in one run!

People sleeping on the 240 hour CMC. Would be an absolute smackdown

Was gonna comment on it but damn its a crazy H5 look yet we lose thermals before the precip enters southern VA

I agree. I would definitely be more excited for this one if I was in Cvill or down where you are as it stands its far enough out to see a shift that ends up favoring us. The individual ens low pressures really just need a couple hundred mile shift and we'd be in business.

The issue isn't that the pattern isn't blocky as shown by this ridiculous 500mb map But instead that the southern shortwave which delivers our storm is just barely captured and amplified by the northern ULL. We are genuinely like 12 hours away from a complete nuclear capture scenario with the displaced ULL and the southern energy fully phasing instead of just helping it gain latitude. I mean just look at how close we get to greatness. Though arguably the best part about the Euro run is that even after this storm we are still in a great pattern. We lose the Atlantic a bit but still have a great EPO and PNA with an active southern stream. Would be a fun time and great to see the pattern reflected in the OPs.

Damn you just beat me too it. I was too busy looking at the 500mb and surface maps to guess how much we'd get. Tbh I expected a bit more with such a textbook look but the storm moves quick

As mentioned by other posters the time period after this particular storm signal look to be more promising but I really cant help but like this depiction for the 4th. We have a good amount of vorticity to our south, a block to our north, and surface low pressure across Georgia in a position to bring in both gulf and Atlantic moisture. Of course, as depicted the bowling ball to our north would suppress the storm but for a week out I really can't hate it. We just need to see the trends but as it currently stands it is more than trackable.

Managing to snow again here. One great thing about this storm has been good snowflake growth and size. If only we managed to get the qdf or avoid the warm air aloft

That said I think that the current band orientation may save myself and nyc from a proper all out failure of less than 3in to hitting the extreme low end range of conservative forecasters.

Looks like we finally got some bands of precip to fill in. Though it’s still weirdly convective like with narrow bands. Wonder if the lake effect may help lower Manhattan and Long Island not bust as horribly as upper manhattan.

Storm looks to be over and the grand total is possibly an optimistic 1-2 inches thanks to a flip back to snow for a bit… I would not envy the email addresses of any meteorologist in NYC right now

The areas riding the mixing line are gonna make out like bandits considering the forcing and huge flakes

It’s a bit of a yikes to cut amounts in half and those still be optimistic. It’s not the Mets fault because anywhere north of where the mix line set up would cash in but man there will be some angry people tomorrow