SnowenOutThere

So far things are a hair east with the western lobe of the NS on the Euro which shouldn't hurt

I mean it makes sense. That's the worst part. We are dealing with a completely different synoptic setup. For example we compare the 0z of today with yesterday's 0z and it shows the difference. Starting out at Friday 1pm we can already see the differences with how the old 0z has a more positively tilted SW and a further east NS lobe Compare that to 0z of today and the SW is more neg tilt, the NS is further west and importantly takes more energy from the parent lobe! So if we move this forward in time to Saturday afternoon we can see how much this changes our setup. Previously we are looking at a strong lobe over the northeast reducing the transient SE ridge and a messy phase happening out west between the NS and SW. Meanwhile today's 0z completely flips the script. It has the more consolidated phase out west AND because more of the NS broke west from the parent lobe we have less confluence out East. These two processes are NOT independent. I mean roll this forward and look at the consequences of these interlinked processes. Our confluence in the Northeast is gone. We have nothing to stop this thing from ramming the primary to Pittsburg if it wanted to. I mean for comparison again lets see the old 0z Despite still having that phase out west its fine as we have the confluence to block it. We need the models to rapidly switch course with how much of the NS lobe it chops to go phase out west if we want the ability to prevent this thing from cutting.

? Euro shows me getting a foot of snow and .4 of freezing rain which would be awesome in its own right but horrific from a management perspective. That combined with the UK and CMC switching all of us over to ice seems to be a pretty strong signal for a mix... and we still have 3-4 days of possible shifts and we are relying on confluence not being weaker than modeled.

Read my synoptic post from yesterday. It literally was the consensus of all models excluding suppression worries.

So hows our 18-24 inches of cold powder looking with no mixing issues?

I’ll take the CMC and Ukmet runs as an off ramp for myself to block amwx and all model sites so I can get work done tomorrow. I’ll be back sometime around 18z or later.

I think I've just been saying what the models have been showing. We still have 4 days to go and the Ukmet gets quite close to a really concerning solution where we get into a dryslot if the models shift as far north as they have today over the next four days. This isn't a chance I want to be taking.

It looks to be more amped than even the CMC

Ukmet will at the very least be a rather large step towards the amplification/over amped camp.

I mean do you see the low pressures out west? The reason the CMC run irks me so much is that it checks out. If we get that strong of a NS with that strong of a SW and the timing right we will mix.

I SWEAR I forecast a floor of 4-8 with a potential max of 12-18! Praying the Ukmet holds!

huh lmao

There is a difference between mixing with sleet during a lull and pounding sleet during the WAA. CMC pounds sleet. That's not a hallmark of greatness.

Absolute huge changes were made out west to get the CMC to where it is. Will need to monitor if its real

No it is not. Frankly its a ridiculous statement. In order to get the goods we don't need a huge ass full phase out west. Remember, the Ukmet has shown its HECS in part because the phase is so messy which leads to better moisture transport. We want to see less NS interaction going into the 6z suite for some of the models now.

Congrats to @brooklynwx99 on his CMC run! This run officially makes suppression no longer my biggest concern if we're going to have this much energy out west.

CMC will be a sleet bomb. Shows the danger of having a complete NS phase in

Might have a generational run depending on that NS vort

CMC is teeing up as well

Nearly finished snowfall map as light snow exits

Furthest north the mix line gets btw

Its going to be a Euro style FOLKS event. The beat just dropped on the music I was listening to and that sums up what this GFS run is.

A bit stronger and west SW is fine as long as we have the increased NS energy to compensate. Which oddly has been happening for every run.

Icon has the crazy lift in the DGZ during the coastal takeover.

Do you think we can get any thundersnow with this setup? No idea how dynamics work behind it or what to look for in general.