SnowenOutThere

Now it’s a true 2016 redux with an event the days before

In a tech free classroom from now till 10:50 good luck to everyone tracking! Someone dm me what the gfs does

Eh not much to doom on yet. I’d be the first to point it out but so far we’re good.

Cap for this storm if everything pans out is probably a bit above the 12z Ukmet. Now, of course, I don't think thats the likely cap but it is probably near the theoretical cap. Likely cap is probably something like the 6z Euro with a foot and a half area wide plus area wide. The reason the euro is less snowy is the interaction with the NS goes differently than the Ukmet. On the Ukmet it actually stretches the vorticity out while still helping the eastern part of it generate a strong low pressure. This is why the Ukmet is pretty far south with its mixing line. However, it manages to also have insane moisture transport from this whole stretching business. I mean lmao it has the jet streak start over the Pacific and a secondary right entrance quadrant over us. Couldn't ask for much better. Meanwhile the 6z Euro actually has a cleaner phase out west. Eventually it all wraps up in one big vorticity ball and comes east. This is what allows it to climb the coast and make people like @brooklynwx99 very happy. However, for us it's "worse" because 1. mixing line is further north and 2. for us it technically doesn't have quite the same moisture fetch from the Pacific and the double left exit region/rear entrance region lift combo. Overall I think that sums up the differences pretty well. They key reason for all this btw is that the Ukmet is faster with the SW which allows it to have that messy NS interaction. It also means our storm starts and ends before the Euro does the same. Ultimately I think both solutions are great though ofc I would prefer the Ukmet (and to some extent think a messy phasing thing out west is more likely). I'll make a more in depth post after the 12z runs come it.

Yep. Let’s just get the models to show the same thing they have been for today.

No, it petty much is. Though arguably it’s a mix of that and a colder/better oriented scenario 5.

I’m not going to lie I love where we are at. I’m a little nervous about mixing down at UVA but as long as we don’t see any crazy north shifts today everyone should be fine for a (primarily) cold smoke. All the models have pretty much trended exactly how we want them too as well. Only thing is id love it if we don’t keep pushing this storm back!

The Euro is doing exactly what we wanted it to with my breakdown yesterday. It’s managing to get help with the NS and have a legit HECS on the table.

We’re starting to converge on a solution for part one. That was up until 0z a point of contention with the SW coming east. Now that’s more or less settled (hopefully) and we get to see what type of storm rolls east. We still got a couple days to go before we get to the solution with that one

I think you’re right on this one. We’re past where Feb 20th failed

That was the Ukmet scenario of 12z which it did hold. Tbh everything I’ve seen for 0z runs has moved in that direction (minus the ai gfs slightly)

Thank you, it’s all in good fun and it’s an amazing reaction image

Hey aren’t you mister “I only chase big dogs!” When are we getting your long post analyzing this thing! Your posts are half the reason I started doing my whole big ass analysis posts.

1.4-1.8 QDF area wide on Ukmet

It’s all you man, I’m on my phone and PW doesn’t allow copy paste on mobile

PW refuses to load the snowfall total map for me lmao

Looks like a slightly less intense counterpart to its 12z cycle

Crazy Ukmet probably won’t hit its 12z peak but it’s looking good for a solid slam dunk area wide

I have vol 1 at uva with me but left vol 2 at home

I’m at UVA and more worried about mixing than suppression though I still think it’s a long shot to get a run like the CMC. It requires both the initial phase and subsequent phase to go perfectly. The op euro or other models that have messy both constructive and destructive stream interactions seem more likely to me which keeps us all snow.

So we know who to blame if this all goes south (pun intended) from here

Get out.

Nah that’s leftover from what should’ve phased in and given us an even larger storm… I’m joking but it’s not technically impossible

Starting to think it’s finally time I read the Northeast Snowstorms book this week.