SnowenOutThere

The time of needing a stronger S/w is over, we no longer have the fear of this shredding or going too far south. For a while yesterday the trend of a stronger S/w helped us but now it’s the opposite

How maybe closed counters there are around the low on the vort or h5 map. More closed conters is stronger

Confluence is technically slightly further north east but only maybe half an asshairs (approximately one county further north)

A note to snow total maps from this run of the GFS is that it gives a small blob around DC an inch of snow from Fridays squall event so make sure to keep that in mind!

Well yeah, I make one forecast when a storm is 6 days out at the start of the medium range with a general overview that goes over potential setups. Then I made one today for 4 days out at the end of the medium range that goes over distinct possibilities from the setup that the models agreed upon and then I’ll make one Sunday morning with accumulation maps and stuff as itll be in the short range then.

Sorry man next time when I make a forecast a week out for an exact amount of snow I’ll make sure they know I did it so they would think I’m a “real forecaster”. Guess those people over at the NWS are also just posers with their fancy percentage based maps till a storms inside day 3.

Thanks for the clarification, I just always see north of I-66 and go “well I’m technically part of that group” when in reality it’s always more of a battle. Glad to know it’ll mostly be snow (for the parts that matter most anyways), either way I’m mainly in it to make sure I get Monday off school and my forecast of 40% chance of 4-8 30% chance 8+ and 20% 1-4 isn’t horribly off.

Not to “how much for my backyard” too much but I’ve seen a couple knowledgeable posters talk about how I-66 should be a decent dividing line between the heavier mixing risk to the south and a more snowy solution to the north, which sorta puts me in a rough spot because I live maybe 5 miles north of 66 (out near Reston) so I’m a little uncertain which group I fall. Anyways, it would be nice to know mentally how to interpret the I-66 stuff.

It just needs to not hold onto its huge jump north. If I remember correctly it did some weird stuff yesterday at 18z before coming back into agreement with the other (better) models by 0z

Almost as notorious as the HRRR’s 48 hour one

Would also want to enjoy the day sledding with my friends and stuff. If I do go do you have any recs on where to take pics?

Capital Weather Gang article mentions the possibility of frontal enhancement in its latest article as "There are also some indications that the jet stream pattern and localized fronts may help intensify snow over our region". Has 35% of 3-6 for DC, 35% 6+ for DC, 20% 1-4 because mixing issues, and 10% chance of 1-4 for DC due to missing to the south. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/01/02/dc-region-snow-storm-forecast-ice-winter-weather/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_weather

The metro should be a lifesaver for anyone who needs to be out and about Monday. Might be fun to head into DC on the silver line and take some pictures

I would be upset at the return of the infamous DC claw but hard to complain about only getting 8-10 instead of 10+

Do not need to worry about QDF on that run, would be a fun winters morning even if it gets a bit icy

CMC looks decent according to this site https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html, though does have IAD and DCA mix for a time before flipping to heavy snow.

You were just a little premature in posting that

Has a little bit of backend snow at hour 108, and honestly (though a met may want to chime in) seems somewhat close atmospherically to having a more prolonged period of coastal enhancement.

Pivotal has a weird brief period of mixing hit DC around hour 93 before heavier precip switches it back to snow but with this sounding it may just be snow.

Seems like it should be at the very least a decent run for us, definitely not a shift to the Euro though.

Yeah it was mainly just an exercise in having too much time on my hands, besides we all know the only model to really take seriously is the CFS

While we're between run I looked at the NAM and FWIW at the end of its run looks to have more confluence further southwest than the 6z GFS while also having a slightly stronger southwest. I assume this would turn out well for us but I'm also by far not the best person here to analyze it.

I volunteer to start the second thread to bring the storm back if this happens

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1874606351701475799?t=Si4ZRrKNNJ68cDEWkY2Row&s=19 Post over at twitter seemed informative in the two ways this might go a little too far north for our liking @OSUmetstud mentioned he believed that the second way outlined in the post seems more likely than the first FWIW and in the second outcome it would most likely just help the coastal get going so we wouldn't necessarily lose out on snow from it.

Oh wow, I was expecting maybe a tenth of an inch or something. Even if just half (or frankly a quarter) of that was legit freezing rain that could accrete it definitely could help in giving me an extra long winter break.