SnowenOutThere

Euro was actually extremely close to a complete big dog but unfortunately got squashed by a fast moving lobe in the NS. If that was even 12 hours delayed we would be in business. Good to see though.

It has temps in the mid teens throughout the event so we would definitely be getting some help from ratios.

I may be misremembering but didn't they do quite poorly with today's event though?

If it makes you feel better it's all just aloft west of the bay.

Wait have people been treating the GFS/Euro OP play by plays for a storm over a week out as actual forecasting? I thought we were all doing it as a fun bit of entertainment/learning opportunity. Everybody here should know that the OPs are effectively useless 7+ days out and only become moderately (still defer to ens) from 7-5 days out before taking over within 4 days of the storm.

With the current placement of confluence it simply won’t hit us. However that might move east and let the sw vort eventually move moisture into our area.

Dude it’s a holiday weekend please go out to WV and hike in the snow

Cow pasture trail in cranberry wilderness WV. Absolutely beautiful country out there. Took 64 westbound on the way there and then punched through the mountains on the way back both took a little over 2 hours and 30 minutes. I think it might be one of my favorite spots as the trail I did was in a frost hollow which gave the lower parts/marsh a near tundra feel which is reflected in its vegetation. I plan to return there to hike some other trails hopefully this winter though no matter what I plan to revisit the trail I did in all 4 seasons. I also ran into a nice local feller who showed me the secrets of “trees on stilts” in the woods with his two huskies trailing as companions. Also had the luxury of sun which was unexpected but welcome! Not sure which tools to use to forecast for that microclimate of the ridge-line because they all seem to be consistently wrong. Frankly the whole microclimate astounds me as even 6 miles out from the trailhead it’ll be spotty snow otg before climbing into 3-4+ inches while even hiking another 3 miles into the woods you reach 6+! I’ll post some more pictures tomorrow.

So what did I miss today?

Rare pictures of me hiking with sun shining!

Really tried to switch to nice big flakes but clearly some warm air aloft was making it mostly sleety snow. I could tell as my bike ride to the car consisted of getting sandblasted by sleet.

That was always part of the plan don’t worry about it. Also some snow and sleet mixing in

Further inspection revealed some sorta white material on mulch. Looks like the creator of the thread wins again

Rain in Cvill… about to start driving west to WV

Hey imma be heading out to WV tomorrow! Further south in Cranberry Wilderness but excited to see snow again!

This is ragebait. Don't make me delete the appreciating posters thread.

I’m out in ellinwood white land so I would disagree

Both the Euro and GFS showing potential in the longer range is exciting. Nice to have a good chance from a distance that we don't need to reel in.

God I love this panel. Look at that literal textbook depiction of warm occlusion with the rain surrounded by intense snowfall. Just a wonder meteorologically.

Snow map is actually more impressive than I expected

Not bad

I think so far the GFS looks mildly improved with higher heights out front and a bit further west shortwave. "Kicker"/trailing wave is a bit less consolidated but still crushing enough to probably limit a major storm/huge improvement.

Never forget Jan 6th (2024) and an inch of rain from a juiced up southern disturbance that was just a bit too warm. Just didn’t have any good cold air.

I'm not quite to where you are yet but I have definitely transitioned from an optimistic outlook on our storms to a pessimistic view. I think the real test of can we get a good rest of winter is does the current 25-28th window pans out. Honestly, we just need it to show a real major storm that gives us precip and develops well, if it ends up being a bit too warm then I think we'll be okay if the pattern persists. Yet, if instead we get some fail to develop nonsense then it is time to probably drop any high or medium-high expectations. Just tired of tracking all these low chance setups that have obvious flaws which make getting snow (or even a storm) unlikely. I enjoyed the December storms because they were just that: a simple snowstorm which even at range wasn't some phase/negative tilt longshot. TLDR: Please for the love of god just have moisture transport into cold air.

Lowkirkenuinely we've been edging for way too long with these chopped ass delulu setups, feeling like we sisyphus fr; we need the Euro to lock in and start looksmaxxing to reach its Lowkirkentologicalockedinflowstate and show a NS that finally rizzes up some gul moisture and show a storm so we can finally get return to our goon caves and end this snow edging streak. 67 Don't bring this bullshit into our forum me and @bncho could ruin every thread here if we wanted to. This is your warning.