SnowenOutThere

When can we start the long range NAM checking?

And it’s all mainly falling in a 6 hour period

Nice snow coming down right now with some larger flakes mixing in.

Looks pretty good to me

Would be a fun couple hours of heavy frozen after the flip from rain.

Got my drone up as well, was just a little late to capture that show though. Also had the low cloud deck hanging in from the right.

Second best?

With how that look would progress according to this winter I will count myself lucky if it’s not in the mid 80s by then.

Can't wait till we get a nino that fails and we have to hear all about how ninos suck.

00z is the new happy hour according to the GFS

Always past day 9 though, at least swim season is getting closer now that high school swim ended.

From the NWS forecast discussion today, I think that it sums things up pretty well. With most guidance lifting the upper low through the carolinas, becoming more negatively tilted, this favors some precipitation in our area. The biggest issue for winter lovers, outside of the mountains, is the fact that this storm has trended so much slower. The air mass in place at the surface is far from what one would want to produce snowfall. This storm is going to get all of its cold air aloft from that strong cutoff upper low. A heavy band will setup somewhere northwest of the low pressure center, and this is where the best chance for snowfall would occur outside of the mountains. But even that may not be enough for areas along the I-95 corridor, as temperatures look to be well in the upper 30s to low 40s. The best chance for snowfall lies along and west of the Blue Ridge, especially at higher elevations. This matches the ensemble means at this point as well, which paint a solid stripe of accumulating snowfall in that area. Snowfall farther east can certainly not be ruled out though at this time, but probabilities just aren`t looking as promising. As always, consult weather.gov/lwx/winter for the latest winter weather forecast updates. This storm system, having trended slower in recent days, is still around 4 days out, so many things can change in that amount of time. As said in previous forecasts, cutoff upper lows are notoriously difficult to handle, and any small deviation in track/speed could spell big changes to the forecast.

Please don’t cancel those weekend plans and if anyone buys a shovel they need to be banned

Solid dusting watch for DC, its even more than the "snow" we got Wednesday.

Considering I've grown up during the past 7 years, I count pretty much anything as a win.

I'm still counting this as a win

If we keep up the current present upward trend in our temperatures for whatever reason moving to the NE will only get you so far for so long. We know why it’s warmer, unfortunately we can’t say why on this forum.

A whole win for the East coast, except Boston of course.

Here is a chart with a lot of information if you want it, https://xkcd.com/1732/

Is this chart better? Imo the medieval warm period still seems a little weak.

It was only a warm period in Europe and possibly North America, which is probably why the chart doesn't look that impressive, meanwhile the change we are currently undergoing is planet wide in nature.

Just in time to mess with swim regionals. Would be a worth it trade to see snow.

If there was only some scientifically agreed on opinion that could explain this unknown phenomenon.

I don't understand this argument, why say its natural cycles when this graph really tells you all you need to know, unless you are trying to work around not saying cc so you don't upset the people who upset the mods.