SnowenOutThere

Not to preemptively call it but I don't think the GFS is going to be what we need it to be.

I think this is the bigger issue, we don't have the same cold press timing we had previously. Even on the amped runs its a lot more thread the needle cold. That said, its not worth throwing in the towel yet as I think some snow somewhere is likely unless it stays amped.

I think there's some interesting stuff going on up at the H5 levels that is leading to the surface differences between the Euro and GFS. If we look into the Euro's H5 it has a northern piece of energy which destructively interferes with the developing coastal as it seems to string it out. Meanwhile, the GFS firstly deemphasizes this piece of energy and secondly absorbs what's left of it into the system which obviously creates a more amplified storm. At this point who knows which ones is correct but I think is something to watch for

Euro looks weaker out west and slightly more confluence in the east.

I like how its a more traditional coastal look than just moisture flow from the gulf

We lost the 850s before the storm started so will be icy instead of snowy.

Wonder if the 5th has any potential as the GFS has another shortwave take a similar path but looks to get shredded

Ice wise for the southwestern areas it would be freezing rain in the upper 20s so may be legit enough to cause issues.

GFS looks to have a bit more confluence so may be a bit cooler

No matter what it was a fun 24 hours of serious tracking. That said, the confluence is just not timed with the storm anymore so it’s probably over.

Well the euro Ai is pretty much ots again

Wonder if the seasonal deamp trend will kick in soon or if this will be the storm to break it

Looks a tad bit deamped with maybe a bit more confluence which honestly may give us more breathing room

Yeah I think it just doesn’t show freezing rain for some reason

Oh Im at hour 144 and thought it might be a bit better

Damn I thought we were canceling December and winter as a whole 3 days ago

How much did uva get for that storm? Besides it’s not finals yet so who knows.

Would get me out of my chem exam the 3rd so I’m happy with it

Looks like 18z GFS while giving us a bit of ice with the system before the 3rd might shear out the 3rd system

Would start right before daylight with temps in the upper 20s so pretty legit

Lots of good confluence in the northeast too

Can’t believe it’s only a week out! Definitely our first realistic window with pattern support (and ofc the cmc is delayed)

Wonder if 18z gfs can do something. It’s a more progressive look out west so I doubt we get enough cold air push

Hell the 6Z GFS even has a December 5th reprise!

Seriously what the hell is wrong with everyone in this thread. It is November, we are tracking a pattern for a month from now, things will change, and either way it is for December.