SnowenOutThere

I mean the timing is just extremely unfortunate for schools so they made the right call. Anyways can't wait for my 15 minute walk to my 8am class tomorrow!

Back edging a storm with its precip shield 100s of miles to our West is PEAK AMWX content thank you.

What was it like back then?

Technically I will be getting a BS in env. sci. with a concentration in atmospheric studies as UVA doesn't offer a strict meteorology major so I'm not quite sure if it counts. Though a bonus is that I'm not required to know the actual math behind the forecasts so no extremely high level math or physics for me!

Yep! Graduation out of the Oakton area last year and honestly you can't beat UVA for the in-state price. Though, luckily I have both Amtrak and a car for my traveling needs if Nova can finally reel in the big one someday. I'm also an env sci major and am taking their Atmosphere and Weather class (which usurpingly I've quite enjoyed and will be taking Synoptic meteorology in the 2027 when it is offered) which has helped me construct the far longer (and hopefully useful) posts I've been able to make in the long range threads. Its always been awesome having Mets like you post the dynamics behind storms so as I try to learn actual meteorology please let me know if I'm on the right track with my analyses.

Well, it was better as in it has precip reach into central VA but it is all rain so its a wash (literally). Though the next wave for the 8th does look much improved and more like the Euro.

Clouds are on the Southwestern horizon in Cville so I doubt I get much radiational cooling. That said, this was always going to be an ice and not snow "threat" for me.

Too early to tell but I think the GFS might be a little bit closer (still probably nothing) for Friday as it has the NS detach a little more through out 96

Adding onto my post from last night but man this window is just a mess of energy out west. The first image taken at hour 60 on the latest Euro seemingly shows a simple setup as we have a nice bowling ball of energy out west and suppressed heights for it to follow east. Great! What could go wrong? Ironically enough, the storm we are tracking isn't even this initial vorticity out west! As out of this seemingly simple setup we have two things that completely ruin this initial ball of vorticity's chances. 1. The press of vortex over southern central Canada prevents any real chance for it to meaningly amplify. 2. The weird lump of low pressure off the Mexican coast which stretches it out the other way. Additionally looking up to the 200mb wind the whole western US is in the exit region of the jet from the western US which just further suppresses cyclogenesis So now what? Well by 24 hours later the energy out west has become completely shredded as it attempts to move east. Unfortunately, this isn't exactly conducive to a storm forming as we have the energy basically being squashed and pulled apart so piece one of energy fails completely at producing any storm. However, we now have shortwave 3 entering the picture diving into the high plains which interacts with the remaining mess of vorticity to spin up some actual precipitation. So by 24 hours later we arrive at this. As we can shortwave one really just died out completely, but its leftover energy out west combined with shortwave 3 to create an extremely positively tilted axis (thanks to our friend shortwave 2). However, we manage to snag some precipitation thanks to the now favorable jet position over the southeastern US. Though the reason why it's ice is rooted in the initial problem; that being we have two different shortwaves! By hour 87 we are already under return flow at the low levels (through 850mb) by the first shortwave and we still have another day+ till precipitation even becomes a possibility! Unfortunately, I don't think this setup really works out for us in its current form. What we can mainly hope for is a better oriented shortwave 3. Additionally, maybe a better positioned (further east?) shortwave 2 could transfer more energy into the system? Luckily, with such a complicated forecast synoptically it is quite possible this solution is far from the actual one which does give me a bit of hope. Either way I can't really say I'm too optimistic on this one. TDLR: I don't think its going to snow Friday-Saturday outside maybe an extremely light event, and even then we will probably have thermal problems. However, the forecast is so uncertain with 3 pieces of energy that it can't quite be completely dead as interactions out West could change.

Sounding from Cville is juiced with saturation past 400mb and well through the DGZ. Also has strong frontogenesis through the 850-700mb layer before LFC would take over above the inversion. Would be a fun evening!

BWI: 19.8 DCA: 12.9 IAD: 18.6 RIC: 9.0 ——————— SBY: 8.9

Well the latest GFS run opted for shredding the southern shortwave entirely by moving it out as the northern bowling ball crushed it. So making this an addendum to the og post but it appears that instead we need to have constructive interactions between the northern and southern energy to get a storm. So really I think watching for a stronger piece of energy out of the south which would help pull the northern stream energy souther is needed. Additionally, a stronger but further south piece of the NS diving in would be beneficial. Either way I just don't see a great likely way all of this breaks our way as we have to contend with a southern energy split, northern stream interaction, and trying to keep the 50/50 in a better position.

Here's my quick breakdown as a bit of practice for my upcoming atmosphere and weather test. I am going to start with the negatives before ending with the path to victory I can imagine. I think the more notable issue is that the high appears to go from helping to hurting before the event even starts. By Friday midday the main surface high pressure is off the coast which promotes flow in from the Atlantic (which as a reminder it is still early December). Additionally, we have no real mechanism for keeping any cold air in place for the layers below 700mb as the surface high is unhelpful. The upper level low and surface low are both in a position to eat away at the remaining cold wedge before precipitation even comes close to our area. Just take a look at this 925mb map. The flow is completely out of the south 12 hours before the event even begins. It should be noted our saving grace here is that the storm is weak so the winds are minimal. The better news is that the 850+ level is less affected by the surface high and general weak low that is "attacking" from the south. This means that the flow is firstly, not that strong; secondly, out of the southwest/westsouthwest. Once you get above 850mb the flow largely veers to be out of the west as there just isn't enough cyclogenesis to really distort the westerly flow. All of this said, I think that ultimately with currently modeling the event this Friday is not in a good spot. I believe this as in order to get a real plowable snowstorm we need two things to go right. 1. A stronger low pressure center in order to actually get lift into the area 2. A correspondingly stronger/more stubborn high. If we get 1. and not 2. all of the thermal issues I highlighted goes from bad to worse as the southern flow just becomes stronger. Meanwhile, if we get 2. but not 1. then we probably end up suppressing this storm. In the end it seems like another thread the needle event that just seems unlikely to get more than 1-3 inches. Disclaimer is that ofc I would be happy with 1-3 inches but this analysis is from a "how could we get a plowable storm" perspective. That said, I think there is room for hope as it is not impossible we get 1. and 2. to align. The 5h pattern isn't horrible after all. There is clearly a path here. Though as it stands everything is slightly off. We have a some semblance of a 50/50, though we need it to be further southwest if we want to trap the surface high pressure in. Additionally, the shortwave out west isn't in a horrible spot. However, as it stands it seemingly gets both weakened and pulled north by the larger low pressure center over central Canada. I think the path to victory here is quite simply that the low out west doesn't get stuck. Currently, the energy enters the southwest around hour 60 then languishes there through 110 before a secondary shot of energy pulls it along. I think if we're able to have the first ball of energy keep its form and progress eastwards and the second shot of energy enters faster its honestly quite possible we manage to get a stronger, more consolidated, and further south system without as much northern stream interference. Additionally, the 50/50 would naturally be in a better spot which would help offset the WAA from a stronger storm. Thank you for listening to my Ted-Talk and if any met read this through let me know if I am gonna fail my test. TDLR: As it stands I don't think Friday looks good for anything more than 1-3 inches, however, I think the path to victory for a bigger storm is still there if the energy out west is more progressive

I mean this sounding from the Catoctins really says it all. Though, it appears if you're able to keep the column cool it will be dumping with a saturated atmosphere up to 500mb and good lift in the DGZ

If you're also trying to just sit down and relax a bit instead of hiking the whole time then that trail isn't super great as theres no campsites or anything off it. Instead I would recommend https://www.alltrails.com/explore/recording/afternoon-hike-at-black-rock-via-the-appalachian-trail-7f8dfc1 (Black Rock Via Appalachian trail) as its both right off route 70 which is nice and the Annapolis rock outlook has picnic tables nearby (additionally Black rock outlook has a overhang you can stay under which is sheltered).

Before I forgot I wanted to upload some pictures I got of DC a couple days ago as a sendoff to November

This setup reminds me a bit of a hike I went on in the Catoctins last November around this time. Here is a link to the hike I went on which tried to maximize the amount of time I would stay at high elevation while reducing the amount of high elevation road I had to travel up. There's a very long stretch of +1500 feet and you get to start down at 800ft and hike up into it which was awesome. Let me know if you want more details and the link to the hike is here: https://www.alltrails.com/explore/recording/afternoon-hike-at-cat-rock-yellow-trail-to-catoctin-blue-trail-7b13b22?u=i&sh=vrjjqd

True, but if this storm was a couple degrees colder it’s quite possible we’d be looking at least a slop storm to an actual snowstorm.

Just checked radar and wow! Is anything even close to reaching the surface?

Not to preemptively call it but I don't think the GFS is going to be what we need it to be.

I think this is the bigger issue, we don't have the same cold press timing we had previously. Even on the amped runs its a lot more thread the needle cold. That said, its not worth throwing in the towel yet as I think some snow somewhere is likely unless it stays amped.

I think there's some interesting stuff going on up at the H5 levels that is leading to the surface differences between the Euro and GFS. If we look into the Euro's H5 it has a northern piece of energy which destructively interferes with the developing coastal as it seems to string it out. Meanwhile, the GFS firstly deemphasizes this piece of energy and secondly absorbs what's left of it into the system which obviously creates a more amplified storm. At this point who knows which ones is correct but I think is something to watch for

Euro looks weaker out west and slightly more confluence in the east.