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SnowenOutThere

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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere

  1. SnowenOutThere
    Do you think part of the issue with why we couldn't get any storms to really build was that second area of CIN? Seems like we managed to get storms to begin development but struggle to get past the shower stage so maybe that's the reason why.
  2. SnowenOutThere
    Yeah, when you see the sounding from Monday without any of the wind profiles it becomes painfully clear that we were cooked with our thermal profile if we wanted severe. Had two different CIN areas and horrific lapse rates with next to no CAPE. Also hope this pen-paper diagram brought back some memories for our mets.
  3. SnowenOutThere
    In my Atmo/Weather lab we're analyizing the soundings from this monday and making a scew T chart.
  4. SnowenOutThere
  5. SnowenOutThere
    I think this is a fair take for nova and areas that got the final line. However, I’m in central VA and that second line had nothing to work with so for areas around where I was it really was a slight risk in practice. I do think the core of this issue might be the new system. When the SPC issues a 4/5 risk for wind I think it should call for something more than what occurred Monday. While it was a legitimate severe day for parts of the region, I wonder what happens if we get a storm that fulfills a slightly higher risk? Do we say it’s a 5/5 risk? That seems unfair when I think a true 5/5 risk should be a plains deracho with swaths of 90+ mph winds. These 4/5 and 5/5 events should feel rare and exceptional and are labeled as such to spur the public to action.
  6. SnowenOutThere
    Love the SPC, but wondering how many of those reports occurred with the ending squall line which went through after they dropped percentages. I think they were completely justified in their 4/5 risk (and twitter/public mets retroactively throwing them under the bus suck) but its also fair to say that while justified the forecast failed. A failed forecast is not necessarily a bad one though. You have to warn for the high end in case it happens, hopefully people don't think next time its a boy cry wolf situation.
  7. SnowenOutThere
    Anyone else tracking the potential snow showers this afternoon? HRRR seems insistent some make it over the mountains
  8. SnowenOutThere
    Don't know if this is the appropriate place but some snow squalls making it over the mountains looks possible tomorrow. Anyways, if someone gets caught in one it might put down a quick coating based on the soundings
  9. SnowenOutThere
    Results from my first ever (severe) storm chase! Good learning experience even if I didn't get to see anything warned (tornado or thunderstorm). Was some low level rotation but fell apart quickly and clearly had no momentum to do anything. Though, the flowers were pretty, and VA pediment is beautiful as always.
  10. SnowenOutThere
    All I remember about tornado warnings in schools is that I would try to tell the teachers they were wrong.
  11. SnowenOutThere
    We had more than enough spin for a tornado to occur. I mean every single shower showed a couplet of some intensity. Just couldn’t ever get anything to take advantage of it. Wasn’t cape either for a bit. The initial stuff had surface cape of 500+, just never built up into the upper atmosphere.
  12. SnowenOutThere
    Dropped the warning for the line I was setup for. Don’t even know if I’ll get a shelf
  13. SnowenOutThere
    Out in front of the line that passed through Lynchburg. So far nothing standing out to reposition.
  14. SnowenOutThere
    Hey, I’m at uva and planning to chase. What would the best location to target be? I’m thinking near Amelia court house but curious to know your thoughts
  15. SnowenOutThere
    Targeting Amelia court house as my chasing destination.
  16. SnowenOutThere
    Severe warned aimed at NOVA
  17. SnowenOutThere
    UVA canceled classes after 11am. Time to start deciding if I’m chasing.
  18. SnowenOutThere
    If anything the radar seems encouraging. Lots of the showers/storms, even while weak, are attempting to spin. We just have to see if a storm gets strong enough to take advantage.
  19. SnowenOutThere
    Storm to the SW of Cvill seems to have some decent rotation signature.
  20. SnowenOutThere
    SPC mesoanalysis already shows 500 surface based cape in the watch zones with 250 stretching to Cvill and parts northward.
  21. SnowenOutThere
    Cod nexrad already has some sun filtering through past the line of storms near Roanoke. Wonder if they’re actually working to mix out the low level clouds.
  22. SnowenOutThere
    Feels like the floor of today (assuming we get socked in with crapvection) still feels significant.
  23. SnowenOutThere
    Drove back to uva this morning. Really has that high end potential feel in those showers I drove through. Pouring rain. Anywho, during some time on route 29 could see the cloud deck breaking up with sky above. Now at uva and can just see the low level clouds racing by.
  24. SnowenOutThere
    Hm. Current radar shows the line over Charleston WV. Doing some math based on its 40mph speed it’d hit Cvill at 10am. Wonder if the HRRR 0z will be right
  25. SnowenOutThere
    Quick question for the both of you. When browsing the SPC mesoanalysis page tomorrow what should I be looking for to see if the event is on track? Just wondering what values of CAPE or other parameters I should be using as a guideline for forecasting out to my peeps if things are looking better/worse than anticipated.
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