SnowenOutThere

Under the stratiform rain coming off the cells in southern Fairfax and still get .2+ inch per hour rates.

I think a fun bit of micro climatology played a part in that storm complex. Looking back at radar shows the storm popped up right over Dulles airport around 9pm. In college I learned that the delayed heat release of pavement peaks ~2 hours after the inversion layer sets. Definitely think that the local heat island of Dulles helped make a convective current that finally broke into our high CAPE environment. Now we get to watch the storm spread out through boundaries. Really goes to show how human made heat islands impact the whole area around them.

Was coaching for the IM-meet which is a mile from Dulles and that storm is a crazy lightning producer. Tons of CG strikes with loud thunder.

Agree that it could’ve been supercellular. The interesting thing I saw with the hodographs for yesterday is how the low level winds did show some shear, while of course there was no upper level support. Would make sense you get storms that rotate a bit at the low level then build up and fall down once they reach the high level without any wind shear.

You know I’ve been out hiking in all sorts of weather but I absolutely refuse to hike in either heat or storms. Heat just seems miserable and a bad idea. Storms are nightmarish to me. Was rain hiking Shenandoah white oak canyon last May when a convective cell hit. Being on the side of a mountain covered in trees with the forest floor as one stream of water and lightning going off made for a terrifying experience. Luckily it quickly moved on but I realized without radar or anything I have no clue if a storm pops up and becomes a prolific lightning producer until it’s too late to do anything. That said, rain hiking is awesome when it’s a downpour event and seeing the whole mountain running with water. However, I can’t recommend it unless 1. It’s a synoptic event that relies on upslope for its totals 2. Has no CAPE or convective energy 3. Temperatures are above 50 at lowest (ideally 55-60) and below 70ish degrees 4. Must hike from top to bottom, no parking in river valleys 5. Adding to 1, but upslope is key as it means you don’t need to drive in pouring rain and prevents a wider flood threat 6. I have my rain pants and rain jacket with a towel and change of clothes in the car 7. Bonus, but using soundings to see if peaks/valleys of your hikes are cloud covered or not is fun. Unfortunately, those days are rare. We get maybe 2-4 in spring for Shenandoah (at least the past couple years) and they disappear for summer.

Went through my area beforehand. Seems like it maxed out right over you guys though. Had intense lightning and good winds with it.

Picked up .4 in 10 minutes. Some small branches came down with the wind and now it’s raining with the sun out. Rainbows out too.

Microburst occurring under Fairfax cell. Right on the edge of it.

The outflow boundary from the south that went by Reston had legit convection associated with it. One of the stronger outflow wind gusts with it too.

2000 CAPE and a nearly saturated atmosphere at every level is pretty impressive. Not terrible lapse rates should support development too. There’s even some amount of shear, if weak. Also, would this be an event where warm rain processes matter? I know that we have abnormally warm temps in the lower-mid levels so was wondering.

I want to clarify, it’s not that parameters are even bad. It’s more so a “meh” environment compared to the powderkeg yesterday was. Do agree that outflow boundaries could help out too.

Meh. The parameters are pretty much all worse than yesterday. Should still have the potential for microbursts or storm complexes.

Looks like a boundary collision is about to take place across louden and Fairfax county.

The contrails will cause the storms. Trust the process, the patriots are in control.

My PWS in the backyard has been unable to reach 100 everyday but today.

I’m included even in northern PA!

I think heat lightning rolls off the tongue better than lightning from a distant thunderstorm.

Comparing the soundings from yesterday to today and the whole temperature axis is shifted a bit cooler. On a different note, what a thermodynamic environment for severe weather today. We have 1500 SBCAPE at 6am which is... pretty good. Sadly, like our of all severe weather potential our ML lapse rates probably suck with a value of *checks notes* 9.3 C/km? If we get storms they will have no issue growing up to the tropopause and then crashing back down. I'm up in northern PA so I'll miss out on the fun, but yesterday night had some of the best lightning storms I've had in years. Pouring rain, loud strikes, and constant heat lightning beforehand.

I’ll move our conversation over to banter. I fundamentally agree with you on the doom narrative of climate change or that the environment collapsing is bad. It sets people up to no longer believe in those crisises when the world doesn’t end. Nihilism doesn’t really promote people taking action to cause change. However, I think it’s important to recognize that we both know, you as an expert and myself as a student, that 1.5+ degree C change will be bad. There is no arguing that it is warmer than before the Industrial Revolution. Additionally, there is no arguing that greenhouse gases are responsible for the majority of this increase. Finally, there is no arguing that this increase has, and will continue, to exacerbate increasingly damaging events. The last four sentences aren’t a political narrative, they’re just our scientific understanding of the atmosphere as a fluid body. I recognize that you know more about it than me, so if my logic there was wrong please let me know. The scientific part said, it is frustrating to have people come up to me and say “oh it’s hot because of climate change”. I get that. We need better communication on what it is - an exellerant to extreme patterns - and what it is not - the sole cause of all weather. My last point I want to emphasize as someone who wants to go into environment policy: the ozone hole or acid rain “scares” were extremely detrimental. It is only because of that fear and the groundbreaking legislative effort, both abroad and at home, that we live in a timeline where the ozone hole is a little known fact and confined to the poles. It is because of that effort that acid rain is nonexistent in the US. It is because of that effort and clean air act that our AQI has been in the green despite being trapped under summer ridging. I’ve never known the world my grandparents describe where in summer the sun was dim with smog. It’s important to remember that these are policies that if removed, or gutted, we can and will go back to a more polluted and less healthy planet.

It’s been hot and humid in northern PA. Had storms move through near midnight that were prolific lightning producers. Good old fashioned storm borne of heat and humidity. You could tell the whole atmosphere was ready to go and has reset back to being unstable overnight.

I guess my question for you is who even has climate change as the preferred narrative anymore? The White House thinks it’s a hoax, all of “mainstream media” have had their owners replaced with people who are at the bare minimum sympathetic to climate denialism, and in general the political zeitgeist has moved on. If anything, the current political climate has denialism as the ideology it would push. Of course, I agree that there are social media accounts trying to hype up all of us dying but they are doing that for their own fame and any commentary on climate change is secondary to their own profit.

I think that swim meet I coached from 7-10am might’ve been the most miserable weather one I’ve attended. Coaches area had the sun in the face and reflected off water. The insane dew points next to the pool just suck so bad. Now traveled up to Tionesta PA for Saturday and the cabin doesn’t have any ac… gonna be a long and hot night.

So thats who runs that weather station I kept seeing on Spruce Knob. Love that I get this data now when I'm wondering what its like up there. Currently they just hit 80 degrees.

If you really want to escape the heat you've got to head up to the mountains of WV. For example, Spruce Knob, the highest point in WV, at 4800ft is experiencing a pleasant week of weather with no highs reaching above the mid-80s and dews stuck at 60 degrees. Lapse rate is around 1 degree C 100 meters so the temperature difference follows. Though, that elevation is a double-edged sword as I've gone there a couple times in the past year for hiking and stargazing and seen snow over in late April. The whole peaks of WV are an entirely different world with their geography and climatology! Wish I could head out there again but am tied up coaching. Hope these pictures from my latest visit in Mid-May to both the summit (top picture) and its nearby lake encourage someone to go out there!

Meet tonight was rough. Had a fan, mister, and cooler to keep it tolerable. Despite drinking plenty of fluids still got a nasty headache to deal with for hours after. Morning practice is looking good be annoying with such high dew points and my costume of George Washington to get kids excited for our A-meet Friday.