SnowenOutThere
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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere
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I’ll take the CMC and Ukmet runs as an off ramp for myself to block amwx and all model sites so I can get work done tomorrow. I’ll be back sometime around 18z or later.
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I think I've just been saying what the models have been showing. We still have 4 days to go and the Ukmet gets quite close to a really concerning solution where we get into a dryslot if the models shift as far north as they have today over the next four days. This isn't a chance I want to be taking.
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It looks to be more amped than even the CMC
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Ukmet will at the very least be a rather large step towards the amplification/over amped camp.
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I mean do you see the low pressures out west? The reason the CMC run irks me so much is that it checks out. If we get that strong of a NS with that strong of a SW and the timing right we will mix.
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I SWEAR I forecast a floor of 4-8 with a potential max of 12-18! Praying the Ukmet holds!
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huh lmao
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There is a difference between mixing with sleet during a lull and pounding sleet during the WAA. CMC pounds sleet. That's not a hallmark of greatness.
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Absolute huge changes were made out west to get the CMC to where it is. Will need to monitor if its real
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No it is not. Frankly its a ridiculous statement. In order to get the goods we don't need a huge ass full phase out west. Remember, the Ukmet has shown its HECS in part because the phase is so messy which leads to better moisture transport. We want to see less NS interaction going into the 6z suite for some of the models now.
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Congrats to @brooklynwx99 on his CMC run! This run officially makes suppression no longer my biggest concern if we're going to have this much energy out west.
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CMC will be a sleet bomb. Shows the danger of having a complete NS phase in
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Might have a generational run depending on that NS vort
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CMC is teeing up as well
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Nearly finished snowfall map as light snow exits
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Furthest north the mix line gets btw
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Its going to be a Euro style FOLKS event. The beat just dropped on the music I was listening to and that sums up what this GFS run is.
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A bit stronger and west SW is fine as long as we have the increased NS energy to compensate. Which oddly has been happening for every run.
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Icon has the crazy lift in the DGZ during the coastal takeover.
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Do you think we can get any thundersnow with this setup? No idea how dynamics work behind it or what to look for in general.
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Icon clearly has a better setup for NS and SW phase interaction 0z 18z
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Icon through hour 60 has a more tilted N-S for the NS that opens up the SW and leads to it progressing east than its 18z run. 0z on top 18z below
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God they are setting up some poor weather kid in NC to get bullied when they tell their friends to expect 2ft of snow.
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I guess, though that supposes that this phase goes off cleanly which I doubt at this time period.
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No, no lets not reshuffle like that. Genuine question is where do you see the north shift coming from? Synoptically I have a hard time seeing how much further it can go north with a solution like the 18z Euro as it has a perfect phase.
