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SnowenOutThere

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  1. SnowenOutThere
    Quick question for the meteorologists, but after this round initiates will there be back built development? In charge of practice and trying to figure out if I should cancel for the whole day (till 6:15)
  2. SnowenOutThere
    Noticing a tall CU cloud shooting up near Dulles. Seems to have hit the LFC and keeps rising.
  3. SnowenOutThere
    Thanks to everyone for responding! Adding to this discussion with the echo tops and visible sat estimated from the KIAD radar. Seems to support the general idea of a low topped environment. Can see that one cell southwest of DC trying to reach upward, but the real visible edge of the storms as the low level outflow induced shelf clouds. What an interesting storm system; had low topped storms in a high CAPE environment and despite that had significant wind with it. Always interests me why a certain storm is a particular way. Also helped show me CAPE isn't everything I thought it is.
  4. SnowenOutThere
    From my 3000 course Atmosphere and Weather the only thing that fully stands out is the slight rightward nudge between 500mb and 300mb. Seems odd that’d prevent a mature thunderhead considering the abundant cape still present. Maybe the other piece is the hodograph which only has unidirectional shear up to sounding point 2? Will page some of our smarter friends to help out @high risk @CAPE @MillvilleWx
  5. SnowenOutThere
    The lack of lightning does indicate how these storms were relatively low topped. Just seems odd as forecasted soundings showed a high enough EL point and we had big CAPE throughout the layer. I’m sure something caused it though.
  6. SnowenOutThere
    Sorta weird how these storms didn’t have the sky filling effect they sometimes do. Had a good shelf and then some smooth bands but didn’t build up as a thunderhead and barely had cirrus. Made me seem insane when I kept telling my coaches a storm was coming in. Any met want to take a stab at why these looked atypical?
  7. SnowenOutThere
    Had the craziest drive from Braddock to west ox via ffx county parkway. Left right as the shelf was coming overhead and made it home right before the rain wall. Gust front was legit, lots of airborne leaves and whatnot. Even managed to buffet my relatively small crv back and forth some.
  8. SnowenOutThere
    Still seem to have a bit of a lee trough if I'm not mistaken as well. I guess we're just missing shear and a forcing mechanism. Storms seem to be popping out near Pittsburgh as well. Quick question, and I know its not fully understood, but what conditions should we look for to get prolific lightning producers? Since the storms are coming in during the night I might try to get to do some lightning photography if I can assuming they hold together as the latest NAM suggests.
  9. SnowenOutThere
    Got bullseyed for just under an inch of rain yesterday. Picked up .4 with the morning round and .55 with the evening storms.
  10. SnowenOutThere
    Feels properly like a wet blanket out there.
  11. SnowenOutThere
    Will that help with severe chances today or just help convection start? Seems we have Cape and not much else to work with today (bad shear, bad ML lapse rates, okay surface lapse rates). Either way how likely do you think it is we get some thunder today? I’m head coach for a swim team from 3:45 to 6:15pm so I gotta monitor the situation.
  12. SnowenOutThere
    Wait. You're the capital weather gang Ian right? I want you all at capital weather gang to know you're a large part of how I've learned meteorology. I remember my 5th grade teacher let me read the articles from her laptop and that being my first exposure to real forecasting (outside of books I managed to find). I can recall how I'd wait for the updates before each snowstorm and trying to figure out the storm breakdowns based on the guides about Miller A vs B vs inland track storms CWG published. It was comments on those articles which was how I even found this forum (which I've mentioned before as invaluable and some place I love). Now I'm now majoring in Environmental Science and plan to take every atmospheric science course I can (already took the base one and one about microclimatology); I've even managed to learn the processes behind some of the articles the team has published, but I will always be your teams debt. Thank you both for the important forecasting/media outreach you all do to keep people safe, and for making science interesting.
  13. SnowenOutThere
    Funny how much it looks like a winter storm advisory with how its all displaced northwest.
  14. SnowenOutThere
    Also PDS severe T-storm warning just north of Cumberland across the PA line.
  15. SnowenOutThere
    SPC mesoanalysis shows 500+ (and increasing) CAPE, okay enough ML lapse rates, better LL lapse rates, and 30kt effective shear 0-6km all in the NOVA area. With a forward motion towards the metro of 35ish MPH and it being 100 miles away it should approach us by sundown. I think we could at least get a decent line of showers and storms with much needed rainfall. Maybe Harper's ferry and MD will get some nasty severe weather too.
  16. SnowenOutThere
    I saw that but I think it’s unlikely. G3 would require dark sky and a good camera even if it had the right parameters. Currently the particle density is rather pitiful and the bz is positive which is bad as well.
  17. SnowenOutThere
    That's a question for @WxUSAF or @MillvilleWx as they understand how atmospheric forcing causes pattern changes. I am at the point where I can tell you the pattern to look for and if models show it.
  18. SnowenOutThere
    Tried to look at the 500mb to get a better answer. As others in this thread have said the basic issue is we are stuck in a NW flow pattern. The maps (one from our rainy week a couple weeks ago and one from a day ago) show the difference This one clearly shows a southeast ridge with a ULL in the plains which helps transport moisture up the east coast and wring it out. Clearly, this is the pattern we need to get some rain. Notice the wind barbs out of the southeast from the Gulf. Meanwhile, this is the pattern we get. Beautiful weather but no moisture to be found in the upper air (unless you're hoping the Great Lakes save us). You can see the ULL over Maine with a ridge over the center of the country. Now, the question is will things actually change? Using the EPS to look forward and its not great. The forecast through at least next week is paltry with the upper air moisture transport as a ridge intensifies to our north. However, by mid month the pattern starts to breakdown and we see a more favorable setup return. The GEFS suggests a similar reshuffling that helps us out as well. In the meantime, we're sorta cooked.
  19. SnowenOutThere
    In the nicest way this is the mid atl forum, so I’m sure south central PA has a different weather experience the past few months. For 90% of us we have not had such luck.
  20. SnowenOutThere
    4.1 inches of rain since Wednesday. Went on a walk yesterday and all the rivers were flowing and the ponds/lakes were full with some minor flooding.
  21. SnowenOutThere
    Great Falls was pretty nice today. Full but not overflowing and the trees/plants all looked happy.
  22. SnowenOutThere
    Looks like all the models give us another .5-2 inches of rain beyond this current system. CMC and GFS have it mainly fall on Monday-Tuesday with it's specific disturbance while Euro focuses it more with Thursday.
  23. SnowenOutThere
    If your argument is that its not dry this year then I got a bridge to sell you over the Potomac.
  24. SnowenOutThere
    For the record it does seem like we keep a wet pattern about here through Wednesday.
  25. SnowenOutThere
    I’ll happily be enjoying my 30 degrees with ripping snow on the trails of WV.
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