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SnowenOutThere

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  1. SnowenOutThere
    Tomorrow is gonna be elite. DP will be below 55 degrees for the first time in who knows how long.
  2. SnowenOutThere
    Got to my apartment today and it was a good storm. Not much wind but tons of good lightning and thunder.
  3. SnowenOutThere
    The models have always been inaccurate. They always will be too. In order to have a perfect forecast you need two things: 1. A perfect simulation of every thermodynamic/kinematic process down to the air molecule and 2. Input data of every air molecule and its relevant properties. Now, obviously we will never hit that lofty goal. However, the same principles apply to figuring out why models have improved or stalled/declined in skill. Considering that, and this is a hard fact of reality not up for debate, here is list of soundings ended due to both budget cuts and personal loss at NOAA post doge. Below is quoted from a brookings article. Weather balloon launches were suspendedin Albany, New York, and Gray, Maine. Weather balloon launches were ended in Kotzebue, Alaska. Balloon launches were suspended in Omaha, Nebraska, and Rapid City, South Dakota. Balloon launches were cut from twice daily to once daily in Aberdeen, South Dakota; Grand Junction, Colorado; Green Bay, Wisconsin; Gaylord, Michigan; North Platte, Nebraska; and Riverton, Wyoming. Nearly half of all weather offices are currently missing 20% of their staff. The New York Times reports that some of the weather service’s departments will no longer have weather forecasters working overnight If you cut input data you cut model accuracy. To reiterate, this is not up for debate but the reality we live in. Ask yourself if those actions were done by the “other” political party what would your reaction be? It’s alright to admit that these cuts are a price you paid due to aligning with the admin on its other policies, but it’s not alright to deny the truth of the matter. Final point here. For the 2027 fiscal budget the admin wants to cut NOAA spending another 17-25%. Imagine that. Our forecasters are already overworked, our data collection crumbling, and our main flagship models falling behind peer nations; and the solution is to cut funding. Own up to your politics. Sources: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-politics-is-weakening-americas-weather-service/ https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/18/trump-cuts-ai-weather-prediction-forecasts https://silencingscience.org/actions/noaa-budget-cuts-proposed-for-fy2027/
  4. SnowenOutThere
    First mid-lat bomb with snow on the GFS
  5. SnowenOutThere
    Impressive how organized the cells are. The one hitting me just popped up 30 minutes ago and was in the process of forming a shelf cloud. Some sculpting was evident with the mid level clouds being held behind the front and upper clouds. Lots of scud too indicating good inflow. This line won’t be bad till it moves off east, but concerning what it may do out near DC.
  6. SnowenOutThere
    I think the main round is initiating. The cells are already 20-30 kft cloud tops so the ML lapse rates aren’t killing their ability to blow up.
  7. SnowenOutThere
    That’s an impressive sounding for us. The low level directional shear is way better than I expected.
  8. SnowenOutThere
    I would be surprised if the bay bounties didn't get a TOR watch.
  9. SnowenOutThere
    My take on today. Made before the Dulles sounding, but I doubt that changes too much from the parameters shown on mesoanalysis.
  10. SnowenOutThere
    This is one of the best read ups I’ve read in a bit! We’ll have to see how the situation evolves with our cape ml lapse rates improving.
  11. SnowenOutThere
    I believe that these equations of ocean to atmosphere heat transfer are what’s taught at meteorology courses. I’m sure there’s a way to do this.
  12. SnowenOutThere
    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/18/climate/trump-ends-roadless-rule-forests.html?unlocked_article_code=1.6VA.m1Sl.hpiH3V8wmXUd&smid=url-share “After the proposal is published in the Federal Register, which is expected later this week, the Forest Service will accept public comments before making the rule final.” I’d implore everyone to let their voice be known as our administration plans to divide and then cut down our oldest forests; despite the fact that currently existing national forest roads are hemorrhaging money and resources.
  13. SnowenOutThere
    Severe storm just past Cvill is rotating anticyclonically
  14. SnowenOutThere
    Charlottesville gets hit with another severe storm. Sure that as soon as I arrive it’ll be the driest remainder of the year on record.
  15. SnowenOutThere
    Ended with 1.37 inches of rain throughout today. Watching an epic light show to the southeast of me from my deck. One of the best I’ve seen in years.
  16. SnowenOutThere
    2-3 inches of rain per hour rates right now with over .7 in the gauge.
  17. SnowenOutThere
    Some decent velocities showing up in the Stephen’s city line segment
  18. SnowenOutThere
    Not the thread for this question, but is the conversation for it. I understand turning the NAM off for convective season, however, I don’t understand turning it off for winter short term stuff. I would love to know why, I assume it’s something in how it handles thermodynamics and WAA, but the NAM is almost always the most correct model when it comes to refining the mixing line in synoptic scale winter storms. It just seems odd to turn off a model which has a very useful edge on all others, even if it sucks at a lot of other aspects; could at least compromise and run it before major storms on the east coast. Would love to know your thoughts on both why it surpasses the other mesoscale models in the mixing line placement and how to compensate for its disappearance come winter time.
  19. SnowenOutThere
    Seems that the MCS in Ohio is doing rather well with the 0z NAM initializing it correctly. Should roll through around mid-morning and bring some nice rainfall/storms with it. The soundings for the afternoon are impressive kinematically but lack instability despite our 70 degree dewpoints. I think it'll be a day where if a cell manages to pop ahead of the evening/nighttime line of storms it could produce a TOR. Only question is if/how many will happen.
  20. SnowenOutThere
    I’ll chime in to add my thoughts. They mirror everyone else’s but it probably will be below average LES. To get LES you need good deep cold air running over warm water with a westerly flow. Seems like a La Niña string of NS waves would be the best pattern for get that. Not to say you won’t get any, but you’ll be more reliant on hoping the southern stream can get storms far enough up the coast to so you can get into the westerly flow.
  21. SnowenOutThere
    I’m finally coming back from Madison WI tonight/tomorrow so excited to see how it plays out. I think tomorrow might be okay. Already earlier this week we say some strong supercells hit along I-64.
  22. SnowenOutThere
    I’m a mix of pop and folk songs personally, and my sister loves Taylor so as an extension I do too. Red and enchanted are great, but 1989 will always be a defining album of my teen years. Last year did a full song listen through and realized how good Folklore and Evermore are, though I prefer the crane wives for folk. Sad to see she’s highk fallen off since midnights but is what it is. As for why people hate her she is a very successful women who endorsed a 2024 presidential candidate and that, for some completely unknown and unguessable reason, annoys some people.
  23. SnowenOutThere
    That storm in cvill is tor warned and seemingly has a debris ball on radar.
  24. SnowenOutThere
    You don't need to worry about them. They'll be okay, and if they're driving distance or on an Amtrak line (Go Hoos!) then you can always be there if they need it. Besides, I've been told most people love college! I myself thought it wasn't quite worth the hype, but even then I'm doing well, and I'm not anything special so your kids will be fine too.
  25. SnowenOutThere
    My genuine advice is to leave twitter. I got a "brick", which is a horribly overpriced product that locks your phone from accessing apps/websites until you physically retap it, and I went from 15 hours a week on twitter to maybe an hour if a primary election is going on. The dramatic quality of life improvement I've seen is honestly sad. Everyone knows that social media abuses your worst insecurities, desires, and thoughts to keep you scrolling, but you don't realize just how much it effects you mentally. Think about it. After scrolling online how often are you happier for doing so? Imagine how much more time you have afterwards. I've read four books recently with my "new" time. As for the specific comments you've put forth I would argue that social media is not reality and these stories are generated as outrage bait. You will not find a healthy way to process things from social media, that is akin to asking a +NAO, -PNA, -PDO pattern to produce a snowstorm, it just won't happen.
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