SnowenOutThere

They showed that Cvill got 22 inches of snow during Sunday. They literally lie about the past and future. I assumed it was just some random model output combination but I'm convinced it just randomly picks the highest possible output and runs with it. Even then I have no idea how it got a short term forecast so wrong when any model had half its amount. Maybe we as a forum should write them an email? Genuinely someone should do something about this

I think its an intriguing setup but not really one to get invested in at all. PSU's post about the western ridge axis pretty much sums up my thinking as of now. We also shouldn't be living or dying by the OP models quite yet, as even the GFS ENS have a decent signal. Instead I think its unlikely, though not quite a long shot, to get an appreciable storm into our area. Comparing this setup to last week at this time is a completely different ballgame as well. By this point last week we could say confidently that someone on the east coast would get a foot of snow, since this setup is more NS based I wouldn't feel comfortable saying that till Wednesday. Also want to watch the tilt of the western ridge. The 12 Euro has it more W-E which seems to hurt us.

Just submitted my application to intern at the NWS for summer 2026!

Dude look at the H5 vort map on the 18z Euro and see how perfect it all went. It's not impossible but I wouldn't call it likely. As a side note after this storm instead of seeing how storms might succeed my analysis is based on how they could fail as that grounds it better considering our reality.

I looked under the hood at the H5 vorticity maps and man this one will be hard to get right. Its a bunch of energy that retrogrades under the block in the NS that dives south while a piece of NS energy out of Canada dives south and picks up moisture. Personally, I think the odds of all of this happening is pretty low. I'll check out of this till Wednesday at least

Freezing rain has begun as the fire hose of a cold front chugs by

Ultimately I'm glad I stayed down here for the storm. Though I am jelous of the people (including my family) who got 5 inches of snow and then 2 inches of sleet instead of 2 inches of snow and 3-4 inches of sleet. Also I look to get dryslotted for a bit but the convective sleet showers beforehand mean business.

UVA in the sleet! Will be a memorable storm.

Considering its still sleeting heavily way down here I think that you'll be okay. I will be slightly disappointed if I get no freezing rain to make the trees pretty so hopefully I get the switch soon.

Looking like I'll get dryslotted in the next hour after heavy sleet showers. Measured 5in of snow/sleet. Wonder if I'll get any freezing rain.

Anyone know where the freezing rain line is?

Doesn’t matter so much for sleet/freezing rain. As long as the 850 down to surface is sub freezing we prob don’t have enough warmth in the atmosphere to get ice.

Lmk your storm total. Interested to see how it compares to mine The SPC meso analysis shows our 850 temps well into the negatives still so we’re probably safe for a while.

Yep. Just saw sheets of sleet. Wonder when we’ll flip to freezing rain

It’s not. Really fun burst of sleet though!

If it makes anyone feel better UVA general public is currently experiencing the heartbreak that we’ve been drip feed for a week all at once. Lots of posts of how could this happen and where’s my 15 inches.

Measured 4 inches of frozen OTG. Just pounding sleet out right now. Roughly 2 inches of sleet already with a ton more precip to go.

You wanna talk about a debacle? Western NC is getting dryslotted while they were forecasted a world altering ice storm. Ofc it’s good for them that happened but gonna be some unhappy people.

Correction for me it was 2 inches of snow and over a dozen hours analyzing the setup. I think I’ll disappear after this storm for a long time.

Can confirm. Switched to sleet/snow in the past 5 minutes. Successfully stayed up for the sleet line.

Burst of huge dendrites in the past couple minutes, which means I’m just miles away from sleet. Measured 2.0 on the dot so I did beat out the NAM by .1. I’ll see you all on the other side.

Hate to do this to you but those heavy returns are the mix line. Some good news is that the mix line itself has collapsed south a bit in the past 30 minutes!

Various pictures from my Jebwalk. I was initially to do another one right before the sleet would ovetake but it now seems that'll be sooner rather than later. Either way, extremely pretty snowfall and I'm glad I was able to see it!

I know, just thought it was somewhat funny. On the opposite end of the spectrum apparently freezing rain has advanced faster in NC than forecasted. Hate to see what that may mean for myself and the other central VA posters...

It looks like my old post is already inaccurate as it’s now jumping north far faster. I give myself maybe an hour or two max now. What a disappointment.