SnowenOutThere

My view as I study for finals before going out to downtown later today to get snow pictures.

Alright lets clear the air of this thread with an actual meteorological post! Looking forward to next Friday and our first potential northern crew non-skunk storm. As we know the NS is an absolute hot mess this week with vorticity flying around everywhere so the forecast is nowhere near set in stone. However, we can still try to pick out what to watch for! So lets start off with what goes right on the Euro which manages to snow over some of us. We can see our embedded vorticity max diving south over the central plains. The first thing that would help us out is a more pumped PNA ridge in order to have it become more amplified and further south (this is more important for me than most posters). However, we can also see that amplifying our vorticity in any way will help out! Compare this to the GFS Our shortwave never had a real chance. Look at that line of vorticity over NoVa and the bigger lobe above our shortwave acting as a squashing force due to its W-E orientation vs the Euros N-S. So, we should look for that line of vorticity to appear like the Euro as weaker and more out of the way. Additionally, we should look for a stronger shortwave with the lobe above it interacting positively via a N-S orientation. TDLR: We need less confluence ahead of the wave and good orientation of the lobe above the wave. Though, considering the amount of interactions no idea what will actually happen!

Anyone know how accurate the 15 minute HRRR is? It shows a really nice blossoming of the precip shield around 1pm which would be awesome.

Legitimate heavy snow as more bands push northward.

You’re in a great spot looking at radar. UVA got luckily with some good banding Friday so I doubt we reach those totals but either way I’ll enjoy today!

At UVA and we have solid moderate heavy snow with nice medium sized dendrites. They canceled class all day too!

Hey last thread I made turned out pretty well!

18z Euro really moistened the storm up for the southern crew

No one does northern crew ragebait quite like the prime time GFS

I haven't even considered doing that tomorrow. Its an hour and 15 drive and I have class at 1pm so maybe mid morning would work. That said, its finals week so I may just stay local to conserve my energy. Will you be going back there though?

I started a thread for future analysis of the storm as you guys have a better shot than the main focus of our subforum

Howdy! I started a main thread for this storm as it also impacts some posters out in Central/Western VA if you want to post there as well.

This is also a great test case on if starting a thread ruins an event as if this manages to completely fall apart within 12 hours of the start time the curse may be real.

Done, please pin it!

As @WxUSAF pointed out this is now a legitimate enough event for the southern folks to start a thread specifically for it! Let's try to will this thing a little bit further north to get it to everyone.

GFS lowk joined the party with its 18z run

Hey, we will always have women's swimming at least.

I did later check that and the 850mb lift is pretty crazy. Though I guess it could be onto something with the cold air press from the north? I don't quite have enough skill to understand it yet though. Either way the soundings for Cville as it snows has a pretty large and 90% RH DGZ layer with lift so I should see some nice flakes. Though lmao

What the hell is the 12k 18z NAM on because if I get even half this total I will follow @Terpeast and eat a shoe

Had to make a forecast for my friends so I had to take a stab at a snowfall map and came back with this.

Yeah I think a chase should be reserved for either 4+ inches or a weekend day. Not to mention how bad the traffic is getting into Cvill from the 14 lane stroad on route 29. I hope its able to bump its way a little bit further north for you guys as well! So far our seasonal trend appears to be last minute favorable north shifts so its possible!

This wasn't even really on my radar till you mentioned it still Friday night. Now I need to make a last second insta forecast for my friends at UVA Tech and W&M lmao

Euro with a bit of a jump north

I tried analyzing how those like 15 NS interactions would impact a downstream storm and all I could gleam was this:

While the ridge is a bit diminished I think its more so the NS is just completely different around hours 105 which I don't think helps us out.