SnowenOutThere

The one thing that annoys me about the HRRR is how the best forcing arrives with the precip (which makes sense I suppose). However, according to the soundings we have an entrenched layer of dry air (someone pointed this out earlier) which would sublimate before it could be saturated. HRRR shows this taking a couple hours which would be painful (though another actually smart met will need to chime in on how much that matters in relation to its molded snowfall output or if its factored into it). The good news to my eyes is once the column does saturate its game on with a saturated DGZ and good lift aligned with it! I know @psuhoffman mentioned that strong winds in the DGZ can break apart crystals but from my (admittedly chatgpt) understanding this soundings seems fine in that regard.

To illustrate the 0z run has the higher heights in front (notice how there is less confluence in Maine compared to 18z) which helps the storm amplify. Secondly, the shortwave itself is a bit stronger and less stretched out as the NS "kicker" is further south which almost seems to help spike development in our shortwave (while having the benefit of kicking it east slower) 0z 18z

H5 looks better too with a stronger shortwave out West and less confluence allowing that push northward with the precip. Don't know if it'll actually translate to a huge change but encouraging regardless

I'm taking calc 2 next semester so I may be pinging you quite often for help (though seriously if you tutor people I'd be interested depending on how my first exam goes) Physics will be next year for me and I cannot say I'm looking forward to it.

Lowk aced that test now all that’s left to do is reel in this storm

Thank you! Honestly, it’s just dense concepts but once you understand them they connect pretty well to being applied. Unfortunately meteorology isnt the only class im in so imma need some prayers while i take my chem test in the next hour (which all of my posts over the past 3 days have been a form of procrastination for)

Hey we all make mistakes. Besides, you're a way better poster than I was in my early years of high school (as some on this forum no doubt remember).

I would encourage everyone to get into this side of reading storms as its way less frustrating than just tracking seemingly random movements on the surface as you can tell what a setups potential is more concretely.

I’m coming at this from the perspective of this setup was never really supposed to snow and it was only yesterday it even became a possibility due to out west trending better and emphasize shortwave 1, In a lot of ways it’s more practice than anything. Though I can’t lie and say my mood isn’t boosted by being 100 miles south of most posters.

Hopefully the GFS run stops the downers from taking over the thread

Hey I lived in Nova so I gotta cover the VA public schools as that’s where nearly every single one of them went. If you have a map that includes MD I’ll happy use that instead thougu!

First stab at a snowfall map (made for my instagram but might as well post it here). Since it's made for public consumption I always hedge my bets a bit so its a bit more conservative than my true thinking.

Euro has more confluence over the Northeast so its worse than its 6z run. That said, its so close to being something better as a more relaxed flow is only off by 24 hours.

Yes, but unfortunately that is around .1 of actual qdf! The general synoptic pattern is locked in so now we just get to see how exactly it plays out.

We are splitting hairs here man. 12z 6z

I think the 12z Euro should be pretty similar to its 6z run

In fairness I wouldn't lose sleep over this 1-3 inch snowstorm missing to the south if that happens. Now, if we get a December 2018 then its worth it.

FWIW the 12z CMC seems to have more interaction with the low I was talking about earlier and its to the shortwaves seeming determent as its unable to turn more neutral to negative as both runs fail to ingest the vorticity but 12z gets more interaction without phasing. Maybe there's a minimum in potential between either no interaction outwest and relying on just the NS diving and the other potential of a relatively complete and clean phase (which would have a higher upside) 12z last 12z

I haven't looked at the upper level progression yet today so I was going off of yesterday (which may have had that low more important who knows). I was treating the situation as if we can get more energy together earlier we have a better shot at running the gamut of confluence to our North (I am also 100 miles south so I care a little less about the confluence). That said, I definitely see overall how changing the NS wave would help us out more concretely than anything else as it is the direct inhibitor to strengthening.

BTW: CMC has a really nice mid-20s snowstorm the 12z that brings 6 inches from the MD/PA border to south of Richmond

Something I've been trying to watch with this storm is the initial energy phasing between the NS and the low off Mexico and how that impacts the ability for downstream cyclogenesis. Though being honest that analysis starts to stretch the limit of my understanding. Generally I've assumed we want the low off Mexico to be further North and East (and more energetic) in order to feed energy and get fully captured by the NS shortwave though I'd like to know your read on it as I could also see a possibility where that Mexican low destructively interferes by not getting cleanly absorbed eastward.

It was perfectly executed cause as much harm as possible by having the Saturday 12z GFS finally cave to a snowstorm so for exactly one run we had all models showing a major storm. Masterful ragebait I gotta hand it to the atmosphere on that one.

Do not invoke such a storm in this happy go lucky 12/5 thread

I like this bit from the NWS disco FWIW, snow and ice has trended up slightly over the past couple of runs. While amounts are forecast to generally be light (an inch or two, perhaps three should a higher end solution verify), the northward shift is notable. Looking at clusters featuring the greatest variance (EOF) regarding amplitude does suggest additional northward expansion is possible. Just something to keep in mind.

And the NAM is weird cause the wave itself is a bit more stretched but the vorticity behind it is a bit more N/S oriented so probably be somewhat close (maybe a bit worse if gun to my head) to 6z