SnowenOutThere

This wasn't even really on my radar till you mentioned it still Friday night. Now I need to make a last second insta forecast for my friends at UVA Tech and W&M lmao

Euro with a bit of a jump north

I tried analyzing how those like 15 NS interactions would impact a downstream storm and all I could gleam was this:

While the ridge is a bit diminished I think its more so the NS is just completely different around hours 105 which I don't think helps us out.

So what I'm hearing is that I'm the Curry of HRRR extrapolations? Should put that on the wall and in my signature tbh

3k NAM is going to make a significant jump north based on the confluence at hour 30. That said, it was a southern outlier at the 18z run but should help @Ephesians2 out

I mean assuming I got the positive changes from 18z to 0z right at hour 15 (also couldve been an unrelated factor) that is technically the HRRR's wheelhouse? Or am I insane?

Zoomed in map with pretty much all snow done at this point

18z

Thank you! To be entirely honest knowing which model solution is correct goes beyond my forecasting ability as I don't know enough about the synoptics behind storm formation yet (though I am trying to learn). However, I am generally able to identify which runs are better and why in relation to synoptics. I think the main way that the Euro develops the storm to be weaker lies in it having less favorable interactions with the low pressure up north. Looking just at the GFS to Euro we can see the GFS gets the ULL out of the northeast slightly faster so there is less connection between the waves. The Euro on the other hand keeps it a little slower with the northern ULL so there is more suppression and reduction in actual ability to form a low. Though as I said before this is getting to the end of my knowledge so take it with a grain of salt.

Just now realizing how delusional it is to truly be trying to extrap the hour 15 of the HRRR its like this

So far (and this is borderline delusional to say) I like the changes that the HRRR has made through the grad total of hour... 15.

With the 0z HRRR running for the Monday storm I'm going to do a quick breakdown of what we want it to show (as its 18z run was by far the best we've seen for us). I will be comparing it to the 18z Euro. So starting out early in the run the first appreciable difference is that the more northern parts of the shortwave (plus the northern crusher) are weaker compared to the Euro. This helps our system out by allowing it to consolidate a bit more rapidly in the plains which in turn allows for an earlier amplification period. However, the real difference is in the confluence up north. The Euro has this running across our northeastern states. The HRRR on the other hand has it around 50 plus miles further north keeping the confluence located more in Canada and less across upstate New York. This obviously gives our storm a bit more room to breathe. So as the 0z runs its going to be important to see if it maintains these positive aspects. Additionally, it gives us a reference for how the setup would need to look in order to get snow into the subforum proper.

Euro has a light clipper next Friday but the H5 is such a mess I doubt its going to be even close to what we end up with as we have 5 different H5 vorticity max areas all interacting with each other. Sorta reminds me of this with how it plays out

I also think I win when it comes to my setup for analyzing the various potential storms we got on our radars. Its a bit of a weather nerds dream to have a whole projector to yourself.

You can see another area of vorticity just barely escape out ahead of our wave. I mean this is the GFS at hour 147 and just look at how close our waves are to creating something truly special Instead it escapes and its all the NS doing work Ngl for whatever reason I'm feeling this one. We got all the stuff setup at the H5 level and just need something to combine together.

One of the funnier discussions I’ve seen. Don’t blame that at all though!

Reviewing my event snowfall forecast and I think I did pretty well. Only real miss was underestimating how far east the northern extent of the 2-4 would reach as it ended up getting close to Cville itself.

Ah, I've considered if its worth upgrading to that one. I didn't know Farmville had a bridge like that but its only an hour and a half from where I'm at currently so next event I might need to make the trek down there. Once again though those pictures are just amazing.

Final shots of the snow (heavily compressed if anyone knows how to seamlessly link to an actual image hosting site please let me know!) before I'm forced to lock myself in a windowless room for finals studying. I've loved getting to track this storm from the synoptic stuff down to radar nowcasting and then getting to enjoy it while it snowed. Thank you to everyone who posted in this thread!

Amazing pictures! What did you use to shoot them (especially the drone shots as they seem far nicer than what I can get with my mini 2). As others said that bridge shot is something special.

BTW @NorthArlington101 Euro has the Monday storm with a significant jump northward to get snow flurries close to the DC metro area. The 12z CMC also had a more consolidated precap field as well FWIW.

Looking at the bottom image (and from talking to @brooklynwx99 earlier) we need to have that low of Alaska to retrograde off the coast more (which it has been doing in more recent runs) in order to pump up the PNA and get more amplitude for our shortwave(s). Would be fun to have a rather strong storm pop into existence within a couple days of the event which isn't impossible given how the right pieces are all there.