SnowenOutThere

You wanna talk about a debacle? Western NC is getting dryslotted while they were forecasted a world altering ice storm. Ofc it’s good for them that happened but gonna be some unhappy people.

Correction for me it was 2 inches of snow and over a dozen hours analyzing the setup. I think I’ll disappear after this storm for a long time.

Can confirm. Switched to sleet/snow in the past 5 minutes. Successfully stayed up for the sleet line.

Burst of huge dendrites in the past couple minutes, which means I’m just miles away from sleet. Measured 2.0 on the dot so I did beat out the NAM by .1. I’ll see you all on the other side.

Hate to do this to you but those heavy returns are the mix line. Some good news is that the mix line itself has collapsed south a bit in the past 30 minutes!

Various pictures from my Jebwalk. I was initially to do another one right before the sleet would ovetake but it now seems that'll be sooner rather than later. Either way, extremely pretty snowfall and I'm glad I was able to see it!

I know, just thought it was somewhat funny. On the opposite end of the spectrum apparently freezing rain has advanced faster in NC than forecasted. Hate to see what that may mean for myself and the other central VA posters...

It looks like my old post is already inaccurate as it’s now jumping north far faster. I give myself maybe an hour or two max now. What a disappointment.

Did the math and the mixing line is moving north at 20 miles an hour which gives me 2-3 hours before the flip. My goal is to make it to 4 inches of snow.

Psu man I love ya but posting a forecast when Im already at 1.7 of my 2-4 inch total is a pretty late call.

1.6 OTG with the mix line 50 miles south of me. It’s an extraordinary pretty snow but makes me wish we could’ve gotten more. That said, I think the nams may verify as they kept me from 1-3 of snow and I doubt I can pickup over 2 inches before I get sleeted.

What type of snow do you have now? Hopefully something bit better

Doing my first jebwalk rn to get pictures. Any Mets or psu want to weigh in on when to set my alarm overnight to make sure I get up and have an hour before the sleet line?

Very interesting snow conditions. Air is full of flakes that aren’t quite pixie dust but also aren’t dendrites or anything. Piling up like sand might.

Sounds like middle earth

Light snow in Cvill very small flakes and a dusting. Planning to play a game in my lecture hall I’ve stolen before maybe going outside

Alright, I've checked out from the model runs its time to watch it snow. I think while I wait for the returns overhead to translate to the surface I'll go and watch a movie in a lecture hall. If anyone has any suggestions lmk!

Seems that the precip shield is ahead of schedule? SW Va appears to be getting ready to snow soon as precip is visible on 511 cams near Wytheville

Oops! Always good to have a second set of eyes. Thank you!

It wasn't the nina. It took cosmically bad luck to ruin this setup. A stronger NS would've been fine if it wasn't for the Baja low becoming a neg tilt monster that trended north, I mean it was such an insane set of circumstances it cannot be blamed on Nina. Instead I think the only explanation is that we've been cursed by a witch or some sort of supernatural being.

Oh completely. I mentioned it a couple days ago but with a triple phase happening out west it is such an incredible feat that its not a cutter that is even screwing over Chicago and running a 70 degree warm sector across our region. So, it could always have been worse. Our setup we saw on Tuesday has trended worse in every possible way (ofc not for the suppression fear). We lost the PV to the east, had a weaker 50/50 low, lost confluence to a different wave setup in the northeast, had a stronger SW Baja vort, had a second NS vort max appear and phase fully, had the initial NS vort max amplify and move further west. Every. Single. Thing. Went. Wrong. For 3 days of model runs! So, in a way look to this as the best possible outcome considering our new synoptic setup.

Finally made my snowfall slides for my Instagram post. Might as well share them here!

RRFS has had a horrific trend for central VA since its 0z runs, really concerned I may fully bust this storm.

Look at where I live. Though, it also is lower for NOVA just as a value of having so little precip compared to everything else.

Its precip total for me is under half of the other models so I think I'm tossing it due to its bias of overdoing upslope and down slopping features