SnowenOutThere

Euro has more confluence over the Northeast so its worse than its 6z run. That said, its so close to being something better as a more relaxed flow is only off by 24 hours.

Yes, but unfortunately that is around .1 of actual qdf! The general synoptic pattern is locked in so now we just get to see how exactly it plays out.

We are splitting hairs here man. 12z 6z

I think the 12z Euro should be pretty similar to its 6z run

In fairness I wouldn't lose sleep over this 1-3 inch snowstorm missing to the south if that happens. Now, if we get a December 2018 then its worth it.

FWIW the 12z CMC seems to have more interaction with the low I was talking about earlier and its to the shortwaves seeming determent as its unable to turn more neutral to negative as both runs fail to ingest the vorticity but 12z gets more interaction without phasing. Maybe there's a minimum in potential between either no interaction outwest and relying on just the NS diving and the other potential of a relatively complete and clean phase (which would have a higher upside) 12z last 12z

I haven't looked at the upper level progression yet today so I was going off of yesterday (which may have had that low more important who knows). I was treating the situation as if we can get more energy together earlier we have a better shot at running the gamut of confluence to our North (I am also 100 miles south so I care a little less about the confluence). That said, I definitely see overall how changing the NS wave would help us out more concretely than anything else as it is the direct inhibitor to strengthening.

BTW: CMC has a really nice mid-20s snowstorm the 12z that brings 6 inches from the MD/PA border to south of Richmond

Something I've been trying to watch with this storm is the initial energy phasing between the NS and the low off Mexico and how that impacts the ability for downstream cyclogenesis. Though being honest that analysis starts to stretch the limit of my understanding. Generally I've assumed we want the low off Mexico to be further North and East (and more energetic) in order to feed energy and get fully captured by the NS shortwave though I'd like to know your read on it as I could also see a possibility where that Mexican low destructively interferes by not getting cleanly absorbed eastward.

It was perfectly executed cause as much harm as possible by having the Saturday 12z GFS finally cave to a snowstorm so for exactly one run we had all models showing a major storm. Masterful ragebait I gotta hand it to the atmosphere on that one.

Do not invoke such a storm in this happy go lucky 12/5 thread

I like this bit from the NWS disco FWIW, snow and ice has trended up slightly over the past couple of runs. While amounts are forecast to generally be light (an inch or two, perhaps three should a higher end solution verify), the northward shift is notable. Looking at clusters featuring the greatest variance (EOF) regarding amplitude does suggest additional northward expansion is possible. Just something to keep in mind.

And the NAM is weird cause the wave itself is a bit more stretched but the vorticity behind it is a bit more N/S oriented so probably be somewhat close (maybe a bit worse if gun to my head) to 6z

I did NOT make 4+ analysis posts for the show hole to be squarely over Charlottesville imma need that to change to some rando place like 50 miles east. That said, seems like positive trends so I’ll take a look at them later

Minus the Nams the 0z cycle has pretty much been exclusively positive for Friday. Lets hope the Euro does its job and holds

I think this would be a pretty good ending considering what we've got to work with

Lmao it's more fun when its all mixed together anyways

Remember when this thread was made to separate out the two threats. Pepperidge farm remembers

I mean its an obvious show to what happened if you look towards new England between the 0z and old 12z run. On our 0z run we just have a wall of confluence over New England which obviously is not gonna help our case in getting to move the storm north 12z for comparison has that same confluence just a causal couple hundred miles to the North (and even that suppresses the storm a bit too far south for some in our area). The other things that may help us is the confluence moving out of the area fast enough to not matter as 0z seems to have sped it up.

Step in the right direction

Looks like the main PBP is going on in the 12/5 thread, which ironically enough was made to separate the discussions lmao

If we’re talking Mondays threat it’s over here. Though I agree so far that it looks like mix between 12 and 18z

Looking closely it appears the reason its better is a slightly (and I mean slightly) better configuration of the NS up around the Great Lakes as being a little more North/South orientated and slightly less connected to the fastest flow. steps are in the right direction but they are baby steps.

ICON completely whiffs even getting close Monday as it has the energy off Mexico retrograde further southwest.

RDPS is significantly improved too (though not enough to help NOVA but Short Pump makes out like a bandit). It generally follows the positive aspect I've been highlighting which is the secondary bands of NS energy being modestly further west