SnowenOutThere

When I crashed out for the 0z Wednesday runs I went to sleep without looking at the Euro and swore off looking at any models till past 12z the next day. I ended having vivid dreams about seeing the mixing line jump north on all the models… huh… maybe I dreamed the future.

I’ll make a video hopefully tonight. I’ll steal one of the lecture halls and use some chalk.

Yep, the Euro is now by far the high end event for me. It even beats out the GFS. Mainly it just has an insanely favorable front end thump and QDF before switching over. Also to the point about some people have been pointing out about ptype maps; I've dug into the Euro a bit and it would have a longer period of snow and then sleet before icing. Though, it still manages to give me some legit freezing rain soundings by the end. Would probably be near the absolute worst case impacts wise. Oh and one last thing, my friend in HS wants our input (he follows the board because of me) as to IAD's total snowfall to win a free lunch. I'm thinking maybe 9.8?

Just a sounding which helps my fears over a massive ice event. This is the sounding a model has for Cvill near the end of its storm I'd love it for a met to confirm this but the sub melt layer is around 3000ft which according to my research would basically mean anything that falls would be sleet no matter how warm the mid levels are.

For me 6z was the first real improvement runs. Unfortunately we are at odds with where we each want the initial thump. I liked how the 6z favored areas south of NOVA more while the 12z shifted it a bit north. Still got time to go, hopefully we can all win with a larger QDF field in general.

My bigger issue with the NAM runs is how dry they are. They don't even get me over 1 qdf while every other model is going 1.5-2in. I think that is a failing of the NAM and not everyone else, the thermals could be related to that with evap cooling. As of now I'm more inclined to believe the HRRR output as it seems more in line with other guidance.

Had my crashout and subsequent mental break the past two days I'm locked in and ready to sleet now! Only conditional is that I cannot for the life of me have a dry slot as that is unequivocal existence that God exists and is evil.

This is rather concerning. I really thought a low end forecast would be roughly 4 inches of sleet/snow for Nova down along the wedge to Cvill. We need the NAM to fold, and for every run where it doesn't it gets more and more worrying.

Don’t worry sometime when every single model from day 7 out shows only us getting 2+ ft with zero deviations we’ll get over a foot of snow again. A bit more seriously is there a reason why anytime we start a trend in the wrong direction it just seems to never flip back? It can’t just be bad luck can it?

Where is your planned hike? I probably will be out and about those same hours taking pictures.

Good to see some positive trends with the 6z suite. Let’s hope they continue for 12z!

Also hey everyone please be mindful of our snow removal/city planning thread. Make sure all relevant storm discussion stays out of here.

Ah I was in NYC for the Boxing Day storm this year and wondered why there was so little salt compared to our roads down here. I do think the less salt and more focus on clearing is the better way for a city and it’s more environmentally friendly.

Love to see that spread east with the initial thump of precip being heavier and snow. I think at this point we want a more amped up storm and just bank on that as our floor and ceiling.

I wonder if you could do a whole case study on events like that. It’s something I’ll think about as I progress through my college courses and humanities writings.

Dang DC’s mayor forecast gotta include rain in germantown, 0 inches at DCA and then 12 inches in NW DC. Tough world out there for mayors tweeting about snow.

I was about to comment that. Basically always trust the GFS 270 hours out.

I said I didn’t want to get political in my post discussing the initial claim of the NYC mayors tweet, that post on the other hand is a political statement yes. I mean we’ve butt heads on this stuff way back when so ofc I know we have our biases.

Man I’m not sure what would you want him to say? Forecasting is tricky, I myself put out a roughly 4-14 inch prediction for Nova because I can’t say with confidence where in that range we will lie.

DC south is sleet at this point

I mean the GFS is a bit faster with the sleet line but also has more QDF falling.

Btw NWS not backing down with their snowfall maps

Yeah it actually gets the coastal going.