SnowenOutThere

As for when the NS is sampled I don’t know but @MillvilleWx probably does. As for needing it sampled to know what happens that’s true. We need the whole picture not one half.

https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/2014175039457829228 Probably should be in banter but Fox model is my new friend.

Thank you guys.

Genuinely do not know your issue with me man. You’ve been on my ass when you yourself offer no commentary on our setups and haven’t been on the forum in years. It’s bullshit. As for the CMC point go back to model runs Monday and tell me which one is the closest to our current runs. It is the CMC as by and far it involved the cleanest phase out west and includes the NS lobe which the others didn’t even have at that point. Either way, you gotta chill out man; as it turns out I’ve changed since you last checked the forum and actually know what I’m talking about now. If you’d like to contest that please refer to the top 2 most popular posts in the old thread and tell me the synoptic faults I made as I am more than willing to concede I’m not perfect.

Oh I agree its a 90% plus likelihood but I think a pathway exists when we have such complex interactions for the models to shift some more. Once again I think all synoptic stuff is settled by tomorrow 12z (which is why I'll make my final analysis then)

Yeah, it won with this storm. It has consistently been the most amped and saw the second NS phase before any other model did. My post way back on Monday analyzing this storm put the CMC in its separate category where I bemoaned how if it pulled of this phase we'd mix. Well, it was right.

Hypothetically we still could avoid it. Would require dramatic shifts by 12z tomorrow (and even worse the GFS to be mostly right) but theres enough weirdness in the NS where I wouldn't write it off completely.

CMC so far looking more eastward with its phasing of the NS and SW. Otherwise similar.

For those wondering how the GFS did it. The GFS had better confluence, a low that ejected a bit further south and resisted the phase, a less powerful NS, and a more eastern NS. If the Euro shows any one of these things we should hopefully get a further south solution.

For now assume all my posts are made with me being at UVA

Storm exiting

QDF bomb

Snow total though hour 93 (which is when I mix)

Its quite the front end thump though the second part of the storm is going to mix hard imo

If I had to bet I'd say the GFS will be a mix between its 18z run and the Euro's depiction

Gotta love it just spawning in the second NS vort.

Listen man I'd hope its south considering this is its 18z run that ends with the sleet line through NOVA

RGEM for whoever cares looks to probably shift everything a bit East out west so far. While I'm looking at worthless things the FV3 looks more suppressed than everything else

I don't think so? That said if it shows a better run yes it absolutely does don't worry about it.

Super early on but it has a similar change to the NAM's 18z to 0z with the SW being the ever bit more held back and the NS stuff in the Pac NW being at a slightly less advantageous angle for a phase.

Oh I fully agree its better, I'm just saying its not quite gonna save us. One or two more bumps that direction though and its game on even for me.

Yeah man, you guys are probably cooked when it comes to getting an all snow event. I guess a legendary ice storm is a consolation prize . Though I'm at UVA so I'm next to fall.

Unfortunately damage is probably done when it comes to mixing. I mean we have a closed 700mb low over Oklahoma! Though it is better than its 18z run no matter what.

Yep. Just wish we could get the less amped STJ wave without losing a bit of confluence which so far all runs have had happen at the same time. Either way Nam would be a sleet bomb and not a freezing rain bomb (for VA) which is good.

Biggest difference is that it still has two closed isobars on the vort map compared to 18z being a completely open wave