SnowenOutThere

It must be as weatherbell shows both sleet and snow accumulating for me during the mid-late morning.

Wait does anyone know why on the past runs the HRRR continues to accumulate snow past the mixing line moving north? Does it see it as a snow/sleet mix or as the ratio for sleet? I don't think any other model includes sleet calculations with their snowfall output so that seems weird.

Looks to be maybe an hour or so faster moving the mix line north so far, though its also wetter.

Anyone see the 6z HRRR? I think it is by far its best run yet for us and now the best model output of everything I've seen recently. Will see if its 12z comes back to reality.

So we can probably discount the NAMs? I know they handle warm air aloft better than the other models and I would assume that is due to a better ability to know the wind field aloft so why in this case would we trust a global over them?

Got my d850 ready. Will clear my memory cards and charge my spare batteries today.

Yep, that’s what I’ve been watching for the past two days to know if a model will be north or south. That said, doesn’t really help us pick out what is more likely!

Seems like multiple studies disagree with each other. One I read/skimmed said that if we have a freezing layer of 3000+ feet below the elevated warm layer it’ll refreeze to sleet regardless. Just such an extreme setup to where it all breaks down.

Im thinking about my own forecast for Sunday and man im just hoping the NAM caves because otherwise I don’t know how I even make one. I say oh yeah could have an inch or 10 inches of snow and sleet depending on which model handles the warm nose.

Curious how bad do you think Icing will be on that map? In particular near Cvill as I’ve decided if over .4 is likely I’m driving to nova to avoid power outages

NAM gives me under 2 inches of snow lmao. I love that the other guidance is holding but as we get further into the NAM's useful range we gotta see it start caving.

I'll be the poster up next after you (if I don't go back to NOVA). My guess is 5-9" of snow 1-3" sleet and 0-.3" freezing rain. Considering driving back up but man I have no idea when the roads will be decent besides I think my home up there has a forecast of 7-11" snow 1-2" sleet and maybe a bit of freezing rain which isn't a huge difference.

Cool to see how it exactly follows the thermal gradient.

I'm more partial to the GSL MPAS-G which is still finishing its 12z run

@bncho @Maestrobjwa @baltosquid @flanvil Hi guys! I made a video going over some basic atmospheric principles from Atmospheric thickness/geopotential height to divergence/convergence aloft based on super/sub geostrophic wind balance. Hopefully it can help out some people trying to learn more about this storm/atmospheric setups! I do apologize as I haven't done anything like this before so its a bit rough but hopefully helpful regardless. Let me know if anyone wants a video applying these topics to a real world example.

Hey thats my goal down here! Its still one of the best snowstorms I've seen

I mean its still so far out. Do the ens and upper levels support it?

Hmmm need that southern cutoff to be 50 miles further south and then I'll trade it in for the Euro.

I think we’re okay for now with the NAM. It seems to be motivated by synoptic stuff imo which seems unlikely for the NAM to lead the way on.

Icon for some reason is way way warmer in the mid levels than everyone else. I assume it’s just a thing it does? Even in Cvill most soundings show sleet besides it. CMC and RGEM have lead the way with this storm since Monday. We all laughed at the CMC mixing back then but lo and behold it was right!

Would love to see a picture of that when its occuring

NGL its a pretty big step north with its totals.

I think we should feel better knowing this was a synoptic scale shift instead of a thermal driven one. Less likely it seems for a dynamics model to beat out the Euro and Gfs on the large scale picture.

Alright sounds good! I’ll go over the weather unit I look as part of my class last fall. Before that though I’m watching the princess bride

I mean it has the FGEN but only bothers to bring it north after we all are sleeting. The HRRR has FGEN more spread out which makes sense imo with this setup and then its real band is right on the snow/sleet line