SnowenOutThere

Hey imma be heading out to WV tomorrow! Further south in Cranberry Wilderness but excited to see snow again!

This is ragebait. Don't make me delete the appreciating posters thread.

I’m out in ellinwood white land so I would disagree

Both the Euro and GFS showing potential in the longer range is exciting. Nice to have a good chance from a distance that we don't need to reel in.

God I love this panel. Look at that literal textbook depiction of warm occlusion with the rain surrounded by intense snowfall. Just a wonder meteorologically.

Snow map is actually more impressive than I expected

Not bad

I think so far the GFS looks mildly improved with higher heights out front and a bit further west shortwave. "Kicker"/trailing wave is a bit less consolidated but still crushing enough to probably limit a major storm/huge improvement.

Never forget Jan 6th (2024) and an inch of rain from a juiced up southern disturbance that was just a bit too warm. Just didn’t have any good cold air.

I'm not quite to where you are yet but I have definitely transitioned from an optimistic outlook on our storms to a pessimistic view. I think the real test of can we get a good rest of winter is does the current 25-28th window pans out. Honestly, we just need it to show a real major storm that gives us precip and develops well, if it ends up being a bit too warm then I think we'll be okay if the pattern persists. Yet, if instead we get some fail to develop nonsense then it is time to probably drop any high or medium-high expectations. Just tired of tracking all these low chance setups that have obvious flaws which make getting snow (or even a storm) unlikely. I enjoyed the December storms because they were just that: a simple snowstorm which even at range wasn't some phase/negative tilt longshot. TLDR: Please for the love of god just have moisture transport into cold air.

Lowkirkenuinely we've been edging for way too long with these chopped ass delulu setups, feeling like we sisyphus fr; we need the Euro to lock in and start looksmaxxing to reach its Lowkirkentologicalockedinflowstate and show a NS that finally rizzes up some gul moisture and show a storm so we can finally get return to our goon caves and end this snow edging streak. 67 Don't bring this bullshit into our forum me and @bncho could ruin every thread here if we wanted to. This is your warning.

Long range Euro showing potential. Gets a nice area wide win which is desperately needed. Not shown on the map is .1-.3 inches of freezing rain between the two parts of the storm

Doesn't matter we get the vortmax to setup across the upper ohio valley which ruins any chance to get neg tilt and a strong wave coming in behind it which limits how much time it would've had anyways.

Euro appears to be a bit more west so far.

My bad I misinterpreted the maps. Frankly I thought that with the CMC consolidating a vort max north of where we would prefer it would kill the storm and crush it. Instead of just sorta didn’t matter too much. Either way I believe there’s a lot of potential left on the table with its run. I do apologize though.

I’ll disagree with you here. This is a traditional low out of the gulf setup (despite literally featuring one) that has the bias to slip north in accordance with a temp gradient. Instead it’s a trough going negative at the right time for someone to get snow. Of course, it could be this happens 100s of miles earlier and the northwest crew wins but I don’t see that anymore likely than a shift the other direction.

CMC looks like it’ll be improved some but def not enough to give anyone a storm imo outside maybe Carolinas

I mean there’s the pretty obvious wave spacing issues with the non integrated vorticity in the gulf states which broadens the trough alongside the double whammy of the NS barging in. Either one could improve to help us out

I think this depiction (unlike 12z’s weirder progression) is a good reasonable hope for what we can get. Ofc, more shifts are possible but as of now I like this as a sort of high water benchmark until the Euro shows snow over us… if that happens it’s game on

Was about to say it’s going to be good, the wave spacing is far better (though completely different than how 12z worked out for us with constructive interference) as it just holds the vorticity behind it back

So far I’m willing to say I think it’ll be better than 18z and possibly even than 12z at least with the first wave (ignoring potential spacing issues which may be worse to my eyes but I can’t tell)

Little bit more of the vorticity south which might help pull it further south.

Believe the NAM might be better than its 18z counterpart for Saturday

Always knew making this thread would pay off for Charlottesville. Part of the master plan.

UKMET probably going to be worse than its really good 0z run as there more energy left in the northern part of the trough so it can't neg tilt as well.