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SnowenOutThere

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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere

  1. SnowenOutThere
    From my amateur SPC mesoanalysis skills I think that our region might get a bit screwed from the storm complex, at least when it comes to maximizing our severe threat. The best shear looks to be to the northeast of our area, alongside the best ML lapse rates. The instability gradient additionally rides right along Baltimore. Think that MD might be able to cash in but I'd be worried about the storms riding that gradient if I was in NOVA.
  2. SnowenOutThere
    3K NAM tracks a strong bowing segment through the area around 1am.
  3. SnowenOutThere
    I'm wondering how this winter might be different for myself down in Charlottesville. Obviously, I'm still in the hope for a big storm category but otherwise are there any meaningful differences?
  4. SnowenOutThere
    Ens are pretty rough. EPS goes cool for a bit around labor day before running back the heatwave we're in by late next week. CMCE keeps things cooler with more backdoor fronts. GEFS is a bit of a mix between the two that keeps us on the south side of any fronts, but has colder air up in PA.
  5. SnowenOutThere
    Think it looks pretty good to become a TS if it becomes strong enough. It has some surprisingly nice outflow to its south with a good level of anticyclonic spin aloft. Honestly, the limited convection makes it a good study of the cyclonic surface vs anticyclone aloft.
  6. SnowenOutThere
    Hoping Cvill can get in on the action once the ridge starts to break down towards the weekend.
  7. SnowenOutThere
    That’s why you gotta go out to them. It snows at the drop of a cold front out there. Last year I managed to sneak in an early November snow hike and a couple throughout January.
  8. SnowenOutThere
    @NorthArlington101Turns out UVA liked them too as I'm now a post on their Instagram. https://www.instagram.com/p/DclqopRDcKi/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsi=MzRlODBiNWFlZA%3D%3D
  9. SnowenOutThere
    Storms ruined my picnic plans last night, but once they moved out to the southeast they put on one of the most incredible lightning shows I've seen. One of those times were even other, presumably "normal" people stop to look up at the sky. Bolt after bolt ran along the clouds for hours. Had the privilege of walking down to watch it once with a friend and then later on with my camera. Won't be a night to forget.
  10. SnowenOutThere
    Tomorrow is gonna be elite. DP will be below 55 degrees for the first time in who knows how long.
  11. SnowenOutThere
    Got to my apartment today and it was a good storm. Not much wind but tons of good lightning and thunder.
  12. SnowenOutThere
    The models have always been inaccurate. They always will be too. In order to have a perfect forecast you need two things: 1. A perfect simulation of every thermodynamic/kinematic process down to the air molecule and 2. Input data of every air molecule and its relevant properties. Now, obviously we will never hit that lofty goal. However, the same principles apply to figuring out why models have improved or stalled/declined in skill. Considering that, and this is a hard fact of reality not up for debate, here is list of soundings ended due to both budget cuts and personal loss at NOAA post doge. Below is quoted from a brookings article. Weather balloon launches were suspendedin Albany, New York, and Gray, Maine. Weather balloon launches were ended in Kotzebue, Alaska. Balloon launches were suspended in Omaha, Nebraska, and Rapid City, South Dakota. Balloon launches were cut from twice daily to once daily in Aberdeen, South Dakota; Grand Junction, Colorado; Green Bay, Wisconsin; Gaylord, Michigan; North Platte, Nebraska; and Riverton, Wyoming. Nearly half of all weather offices are currently missing 20% of their staff. The New York Times reports that some of the weather service’s departments will no longer have weather forecasters working overnight If you cut input data you cut model accuracy. To reiterate, this is not up for debate but the reality we live in. Ask yourself if those actions were done by the “other” political party what would your reaction be? It’s alright to admit that these cuts are a price you paid due to aligning with the admin on its other policies, but it’s not alright to deny the truth of the matter. Final point here. For the 2027 fiscal budget the admin wants to cut NOAA spending another 17-25%. Imagine that. Our forecasters are already overworked, our data collection crumbling, and our main flagship models falling behind peer nations; and the solution is to cut funding. Own up to your politics. Sources: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-politics-is-weakening-americas-weather-service/ https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/18/trump-cuts-ai-weather-prediction-forecasts https://silencingscience.org/actions/noaa-budget-cuts-proposed-for-fy2027/
  13. SnowenOutThere
    First mid-lat bomb with snow on the GFS
  14. SnowenOutThere
    Impressive how organized the cells are. The one hitting me just popped up 30 minutes ago and was in the process of forming a shelf cloud. Some sculpting was evident with the mid level clouds being held behind the front and upper clouds. Lots of scud too indicating good inflow. This line won’t be bad till it moves off east, but concerning what it may do out near DC.
  15. SnowenOutThere
    I think the main round is initiating. The cells are already 20-30 kft cloud tops so the ML lapse rates aren’t killing their ability to blow up.
  16. SnowenOutThere
    That’s an impressive sounding for us. The low level directional shear is way better than I expected.
  17. SnowenOutThere
    I would be surprised if the bay bounties didn't get a TOR watch.
  18. SnowenOutThere
    My take on today. Made before the Dulles sounding, but I doubt that changes too much from the parameters shown on mesoanalysis.
  19. SnowenOutThere
    This is one of the best read ups I’ve read in a bit! We’ll have to see how the situation evolves with our cape ml lapse rates improving.
  20. SnowenOutThere
    I believe that these equations of ocean to atmosphere heat transfer are what’s taught at meteorology courses. I’m sure there’s a way to do this.
  21. SnowenOutThere
    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/18/climate/trump-ends-roadless-rule-forests.html?unlocked_article_code=1.6VA.m1Sl.hpiH3V8wmXUd&smid=url-share “After the proposal is published in the Federal Register, which is expected later this week, the Forest Service will accept public comments before making the rule final.” I’d implore everyone to let their voice be known as our administration plans to divide and then cut down our oldest forests; despite the fact that currently existing national forest roads are hemorrhaging money and resources.
  22. SnowenOutThere
    Severe storm just past Cvill is rotating anticyclonically
  23. SnowenOutThere
    Charlottesville gets hit with another severe storm. Sure that as soon as I arrive it’ll be the driest remainder of the year on record.
  24. SnowenOutThere
    Ended with 1.37 inches of rain throughout today. Watching an epic light show to the southeast of me from my deck. One of the best I’ve seen in years.
  25. SnowenOutThere
    2-3 inches of rain per hour rates right now with over .7 in the gauge.
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