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SnowenOutThere

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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere

  1. SnowenOutThere
  2. SnowenOutThere
    Went into DC on a rainy day adventure to see the tidal basin. DC really does the imperial city vibes well in the rain.
  3. SnowenOutThere
    I chose to take a rain swim, then head into DC for my activities. Got to see the reflection pool in person… lots of national guard people.
  4. SnowenOutThere
    At least to myself the velocity scans look rather unimpressive.
  5. SnowenOutThere
    No visible rotation from my vantage point. Massive downdraft/microburst visible though.
  6. SnowenOutThere
    Looks like the hooks reformed over GMU. Saw two bolts from the blue hit right over there
  7. SnowenOutThere
    It’s combined with the cell that popped up over 66 (I was driving west to get the culpeper cell) and it was nasty. Some of the heaviest rainfall you can get. The gust front is hitting me from the cell complex. I’m at the Herndon metro garage if anyone is interested in where my reports are from. They have a 6 story roof.
  8. SnowenOutThere
    Going for my Herndon metro intercept point
  9. SnowenOutThere
    DCA radar shows it well
  10. SnowenOutThere
    Cell south of dc has a weak mesocyclone
  11. SnowenOutThere
    Debating if I want to drive out on a local chase. Would set up east of Culpepper.
  12. SnowenOutThere
    I’m sorta feeling today. At the bare minimum we’re over 1000 SCAPE right now so I think we will at least get some storms this evening.
  13. SnowenOutThere
    Shear looks better than forecasted last night. Surface winds are nearly due south instead of the more westerly direction shown by the models.
  14. SnowenOutThere
    3k NAM looked better too. Though severe wise the hodographs look less impressive than this morning. Generally the surface winds are more westerly instead of southern on the latest runs so you don’t get the same amount of directional shear
  15. SnowenOutThere
    It mixes tomorrow into the upper 50s for dewpoints, NAM stays in the mid to upper 60s.
  16. SnowenOutThere
    Its the RRFS but man those are some nasty updraft helicity tracks. Most I've seen for this area on any model.
  17. SnowenOutThere
    Beautiful sunset! NAM sounding expertly shows the distribution of the mid/high level clouds needed to make this sunset work
  18. SnowenOutThere
    Hyped to coach a rain practice today, I always loved them when I swam outside.
  19. SnowenOutThere
    Went on a morning hike of Harper’s Ferry MD side. Beautiful, got there at 6:30am and avoided the crowds.
  20. SnowenOutThere
    Hell of a Tornado outbreak looks to be occurring in PA. 7 active warnings right now
  21. SnowenOutThere
    Stormy, sometimes you really need to realize you’re not the expert in the room. The SPC/drought monitor people/WPC all are smarter than you in their subject matter. So much ignorance of people about how much skill it takes to be an expert in a field. It’s a plague onto our society. From vaccine “skeptics” who believe they know better, to election deniers “who know the truth, to you sitting here spouting the same rhetoric. Listen more, post less.
  22. SnowenOutThere
    Thanks for responding/correcting me. I suppose my main take was based on assuming the storm initiation method would be the same. To my knowledge Friday and Thursday had storms due to the Lee trough and intense heating generating cape and basically hitting convective temp around 3pm. I didn’t realize today was more synoptic based for storm development. I suppose I haven’t had practice with these yet. Though, I never thought that if storms popped they wouldn’t be nasty with the increased, especially considering WxUSF mentioning we are now 2000+ CAPE.
  23. SnowenOutThere
    You got a link to that? Preferably the height temp dep point sheet. I still have some full page skew-T sheets I took from my lab at UVA and would love to do a hand written analysis
  24. SnowenOutThere
    Hmm, took a look at the mesoanalysis page and I’m still on the train of storms today could be nasty, but I have some concerns about initiation. I did a hand analysis of the SPC page and evidently the pre frontal axis is located along route 15. Meanwhile, the pre frontal trough associated with a low level wind shift from south to south west is draped across the Allegheny front. I’m just not sure we have the juice to kick off storms. My dew point is in the upper 60s, but our cape west of the beltway remains stubbornly in the 500-1000 range. This isn’t like last Friday where we had 3000+ Cape and near conditionally unstable LL lapse rates. Additionally, the RH between the LCL and LFC is 30-50% across where the trough would cause storms to form. Just seems we got a good bit stacked against us thermodynamically. That said, this is all beginner analysis so the Mets probably see reasons that storms will pop that I don’t.
  25. SnowenOutThere
    Interesting how tight the gradient is between Louden county and the DC border. Do you think it’ll fill in west or no? Visual sat shows some clearing.
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