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SnowenOutThere

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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere

  1. SnowenOutThere
    I mean it won’t happen but those are (to my relatively novice eye) insane soundings. I mean what crazy low level shear both speed and directionally. Not to mention 7 c/km ML lapse rates and high cape. It won’t verify, but maybe we can at least snag a decent nighttime storm.
  2. SnowenOutThere
    Looks like I can check off getting inside the notch of a supercell from the bucket list.
  3. SnowenOutThere
    The southern boundary has just cleared my backyard and it’s legit. Good gusts and most impressively it’s not a one and done but sustained southerly winds for over 5 minutes now.
  4. SnowenOutThere
    Interesting boundary collision is gonna happen right west/east along the Dulles toll road.
  5. SnowenOutThere
    The boundary which is moving northward into NOVA seems to be popping a bunch of storms off it now. The main cell south of manassas looks rough with 70mph winds in its core. May angle to get me with a direct hit.
  6. SnowenOutThere
    I suppose memorable is a sliding scale. I didn’t mean to imply we’ll see a widespread tornado or severe outbreak, but I think it might be a day where we reference it by date in the future when discussing upcoming severe systems.
  7. SnowenOutThere
    I think we may be in the best severe setup of the year. We’re over 5000 CAPE, have 40 kt 0-6km shear, and okay enough ML lapse rates. There’s even 100+ surface helicity according to mesoanalysis! The smoke seems to also be inhibiting storm crowding by keeping or LL lapse rates down too. The storms now popping up on radar all have the bean look of supercellular development. We may be in for a memorable day. @vortex95 @high risk@WxUSAF@wxmeddler would love to hear your updated thoughts as storms begin firing! Also, just checked and our composite indices are crazy! We’re at 8 in Nova for supercells and 1 for sig tor (2 east of Baltimore)
  8. SnowenOutThere
    Storm near Madison VA is rotating. Has a well defined mesocyclone on radar, and it’s even further from the warm front than most of us.
  9. SnowenOutThere
    Can tell you the pool deck in chantilly suddenly got hot in the past 20 minutes as there’s a break in the clouds. Shot up from humid and cool to hot and extremely uncomfortable quick.
  10. SnowenOutThere
    Did the models account for this or are we failing as per usual?
  11. SnowenOutThere
    Our solar output is pretty abysmal right now. Between high alt clouds and the smoke we need something to change if we want severe to verify.
  12. SnowenOutThere
    I find the argument “I lived through worse AQI and we still had events” so weird. Back then, we didn’t how bad it was for you and it was normalized so of course you held events in air which damaged your lungs, you didn’t know better! Now we do, so correspondingly we cancel. It’s like complaining that people wash their hands because we learned germ theory!
  13. SnowenOutThere
    Looks like MD has the worst of the plume on vis sat.
  14. SnowenOutThere
    Looks like we get another round later today in the afternoon from our NW.
  15. SnowenOutThere
    Wanted to ask you or other Mets if the CSL (swim league) should consider moving divisionals, our league wide qualifying meet for all stars, to Sunday. Warmups start 6am and meet starts 8am, ends by 12pm. @NorthArlington101 if you have any thoughts lmk.
  16. SnowenOutThere
    Cancelled practice on deck. Seems to be a little bit better now as the ABL should keep rising.
  17. SnowenOutThere
    Our AQI is hitting into mid-high 300s right now, over 100 from what was forecasted. Wish I pushed to cancel practice.
  18. SnowenOutThere
    It’s nasty out there. Smell is worse than I remembered from a couple years ago. AQI is around 150 so we still aren’t in the worst of it.
  19. SnowenOutThere
    This is one of the more legitimate discussions we've gotten this year. Not too often large hail is mentioned so often for us. 3k NAM into the future has CAPE nearly reaching 5000 in ffx county as the first round of storms roll through. Has appreciable supercell/tor composite values thanks to the shear mentioned in the AFD and some turning with height alongside the directional stuff. As mentioned, even after it gets dark we stay with impressive CAPE values of 3000+! Question for our mets, but could the D-word get tossed around with that line of storms overnight?
  20. SnowenOutThere
    Isn't this blatantly wrong? It's the HRRR that always has the overmixing problem, just in the past couple setups the soundings from the Nam may show 3000 CAPE while HRRR is out with 1000 or less. This is a good reminder that AI is bullshit; as in it is extremely confident but has no actual checks on if it is true which is my personal definition of bullshit. It always sounds "correct" until it is your field of expertise you ask it on.
  21. SnowenOutThere
    It shunts the 200+ near surface smoke off to our east (Capeland) so we get values around 100. Talked to the team reps for my swim team and fought to get practices reduced from 1 hour to 45 minutes for age groups tomorrow. My atmosphere course last fall really emphasized how pm is not something you want to play around with when it comes to nearly any exposure. It's the day before divisionals so we're tapering anyways.
  22. SnowenOutThere
    I generally think he tends to be a jaded weenie where he predicts warmth but gets sucked into a snow threat when it appears. That said, he’s better than most online forecasters and does know his technical stuff. He’s a guy who I’d rather have on our side when forecasting a storm but he’s been wrong before too.
  23. SnowenOutThere
    Ten years ago was when the 2016 nino altered our base state to be warmer thanks to climate change. Since then we’ve dealt with that consequence by having often warm winters which lack in the snowfall department, so I’d imagine the base state change is probably a major player for the fires as well.
  24. SnowenOutThere
    Looks like Thursday morning will be rough according to the HRRR. Interestingly it keeps west of the blue ridge/shenandoah shielded from the near surface smoke.
  25. SnowenOutThere
    The bay/river boundary pushing across ffx county is desperately trying to get a storm going up over Reston. Have watched it grow for the past 10 minutes.
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