SnowenOutThere

Night and day difference between GFS and Euro. The H5 map really shows all you need to see to why the GFS is an area wide all snow event.

Just doesn’t have that second NS lobe like the other models do. Gives me some hope that even if they meet in the middle we won’t see a super amped solution.

I think the 18z GFS will have even less NS interaction with our SW (aka more "suppressed")

I was in a class whats up. I will also be in another class for the next 50 minutes but then the synoptic analysis three will be worked on.

18z NAM near hour 50 showing more separation of the NS and SW hypothetically it should be useful during that time frame

But it ends after 96 hours. So technically I’m going to claim it’s 4 days out to perserve my pride

Finally I can freak the fuck out! I'm scared as hell about how this evolves. We are playing with the mix line 4-5 days out and just lost our suppressive TPV off East.

Done!

Get your memes, whining, and side tangents ready for the real banter thread! Please try to use this thread to keep the other one more readable.

Thats tonight! We aren't making a new thread within 12 hours of this one!

I think if there's a time to make a dedicated storm thread and a dedicated banter thread its now.

Interestingly NWS still has their forecast show an all snow storm for Cvill

Sure. 12z Yesterday 18z 0z (Biggest shift) 6z 12z

I mean its frankly a ridiculous setup. In any other world where we have a -2.5 sigma 500mb anomaly centered over north/south Dakota we would be looking at a cutter that puts us in a 70 degree warm sector. Instead we are still managing to get a snowstorm out of it!

Hate to ask a question fully motivated out of my personal interest but where do you think the northern extent of this ice storm (.25+) probabilities lie? Personally I can handle synoptic analysis but thermals hurts my brain.

Tallied up the amount of storms that are too north, too south, and misses (under 6in across NOVA). 0z 5 Maxes to the south 14 Maxes to the North 3 Misses North; 1 Miss South 12z 5 Maxes to the South 15 Maxes to the North 9 Misses North Unfortunately the data pretty strongly reflects the assumption that the probability decrease is caused by mixing concerns. Lets hope for future runs that 9 misses north comes down.

I think we'll know if the Chicago exaggeration has any legs (not saying they will get max but as in mixing bad along I-95) within the next 3 model cycles. As others have mentioned upper air data will be ingested sometime tonight (unclear if that's 0z or 6z) and I think that'll be the last real chance for this storm to completely change character like it did the past day. Past that we're just tracking the mesoscale interactions of where the mix line sets up.

Thinking that I may want to drive back up to NOVA for this one, though I probably would have some amount of difficultly getting back. That said, now that this is starting to be a coastal with the sleet/Freezing rain line setting up more SW-NE I wonder if I'd be fine. Agree that ultimately we need to wait and see what the CAMs show if the synoptic solution holds (which reasonably it will though details like level of confluence and phasing may favor a NW or SW shift).

One thing that (is expected with the more northern solutions) generally has decreased the likelyhood of 4+ inches over 24 hours from a near guarantee to a "mere" 80-90%

I think this storm is legitimately dangerous for our area now. Of course, 12-18inches of snow is dangerous in its own right but 12-16inches of snow plus .2 of freezing rain or an inch of sleet followed by extreme cold has the ability to kill people if the freezing rain threat materializes for places southeast of DC (baring no more NW shifts).

12z Euro is interesting when compared to its 0z run. On the H5 panels we get trends which cancel out. We have a messier phase out west as the wave spacing favors kicking the shortwave east. Compare it to 0z and that secondary Canadian shortwave helps it dig and amplify even more. Interestingly, this offsets that there is less confluence thanks to the PV scooting out even faster for our 12z run. However, the confluence that does exist appears better oriented (combined with the western wave spacing) to block its latitude gain. The result is a slightly less intense storm that travels about the same track.

So far things are a hair east with the western lobe of the NS on the Euro which shouldn't hurt

I mean it makes sense. That's the worst part. We are dealing with a completely different synoptic setup. For example we compare the 0z of today with yesterday's 0z and it shows the difference. Starting out at Friday 1pm we can already see the differences with how the old 0z has a more positively tilted SW and a further east NS lobe Compare that to 0z of today and the SW is more neg tilt, the NS is further west and importantly takes more energy from the parent lobe! So if we move this forward in time to Saturday afternoon we can see how much this changes our setup. Previously we are looking at a strong lobe over the northeast reducing the transient SE ridge and a messy phase happening out west between the NS and SW. Meanwhile today's 0z completely flips the script. It has the more consolidated phase out west AND because more of the NS broke west from the parent lobe we have less confluence out East. These two processes are NOT independent. I mean roll this forward and look at the consequences of these interlinked processes. Our confluence in the Northeast is gone. We have nothing to stop this thing from ramming the primary to Pittsburg if it wanted to. I mean for comparison again lets see the old 0z Despite still having that phase out west its fine as we have the confluence to block it. We need the models to rapidly switch course with how much of the NS lobe it chops to go phase out west if we want the ability to prevent this thing from cutting.

? Euro shows me getting a foot of snow and .4 of freezing rain which would be awesome in its own right but horrific from a management perspective. That combined with the UK and CMC switching all of us over to ice seems to be a pretty strong signal for a mix... and we still have 3-4 days of possible shifts and we are relying on confluence not being weaker than modeled.

Read my synoptic post from yesterday. It literally was the consensus of all models excluding suppression worries.