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SnowenOutThere

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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere

  1. SnowenOutThere
    Think I'll get to the herndon metro tower as my chase spot. Looks to get a good view as it comes in.
  2. SnowenOutThere
    PDS warning issued. When is the last time we've had that
  3. SnowenOutThere
    TDS on radar
  4. SnowenOutThere
    The stuff over WV has grown up enough to where it should be able to get some good rain for all of NOVA I think.
  5. SnowenOutThere
    I'm cautiously optimistic we might be able to get something later on today. Our kinematics get better into the evening/night and we should have a fine enough thermo environment to support storms. Once forcing/WV complex arrives may be able to have that serve as our forcing, but it may be too far south.
  6. SnowenOutThere
    If you look on RadarScope right now it seems to have a debris ball possibly? May just be wind kicking up leaves but I’m not sure. The cell isn’t even TOR warned though…
  7. SnowenOutThere
    We have a small Lee trough signature out along I-81 I think. It’s pretty weak though.
  8. SnowenOutThere
    The first part of this point is super important when it comes to our severe ability. Convective instability isn’t really because it’s hot out with some humidity, it’s a measure of how much energy a parcel can release as it traverses the atmosphere. Water carries a lot of heat with it, so despite us being clouded over since it’s so wet out we have 3000+ CAPE over the region. Additionally, airs ability to hold water increases exponentially, it’s why a dewpoint change from 40 -> 50 feels fine, but 60 -> 70 is rough. Hence, we have a ton of energy stored through all that extra water. The issue without heating is that you need forcing to cause storms as you don’t get natural convective currents to help out. I’m not qualified to know if our Lee trough will be enough to pop storms, but In some ways I wonder that a lack of heating could help our severe odds today. Since we don’t have a cap traditionally storm overcrowding could be a fail mode, but with poor level lapse rates maybe it will mitigate overcrowding.
  9. SnowenOutThere
    I haven’t looked a ton at the setup and won’t be able till past midday. It seems similar up Monday but with less CAPE traded for better shear both upper and lower levels. Considering we got some supercells then, I see no reason why we couldn’t get them today.
  10. SnowenOutThere
    I mean it won’t happen but those are (to my relatively novice eye) insane soundings. I mean what crazy low level shear both speed and directionally. Not to mention 7 c/km ML lapse rates and high cape. It won’t verify, but maybe we can at least snag a decent nighttime storm.
  11. SnowenOutThere
    Looks like I can check off getting inside the notch of a supercell from the bucket list.
  12. SnowenOutThere
    The southern boundary has just cleared my backyard and it’s legit. Good gusts and most impressively it’s not a one and done but sustained southerly winds for over 5 minutes now.
  13. SnowenOutThere
    Interesting boundary collision is gonna happen right west/east along the Dulles toll road.
  14. SnowenOutThere
    The boundary which is moving northward into NOVA seems to be popping a bunch of storms off it now. The main cell south of manassas looks rough with 70mph winds in its core. May angle to get me with a direct hit.
  15. SnowenOutThere
    I suppose memorable is a sliding scale. I didn’t mean to imply we’ll see a widespread tornado or severe outbreak, but I think it might be a day where we reference it by date in the future when discussing upcoming severe systems.
  16. SnowenOutThere
    I think we may be in the best severe setup of the year. We’re over 5000 CAPE, have 40 kt 0-6km shear, and okay enough ML lapse rates. There’s even 100+ surface helicity according to mesoanalysis! The smoke seems to also be inhibiting storm crowding by keeping or LL lapse rates down too. The storms now popping up on radar all have the bean look of supercellular development. We may be in for a memorable day. @vortex95 @high risk@WxUSAF@wxmeddler would love to hear your updated thoughts as storms begin firing! Also, just checked and our composite indices are crazy! We’re at 8 in Nova for supercells and 1 for sig tor (2 east of Baltimore)
  17. SnowenOutThere
    Storm near Madison VA is rotating. Has a well defined mesocyclone on radar, and it’s even further from the warm front than most of us.
  18. SnowenOutThere
    Can tell you the pool deck in chantilly suddenly got hot in the past 20 minutes as there’s a break in the clouds. Shot up from humid and cool to hot and extremely uncomfortable quick.
  19. SnowenOutThere
    Did the models account for this or are we failing as per usual?
  20. SnowenOutThere
    Our solar output is pretty abysmal right now. Between high alt clouds and the smoke we need something to change if we want severe to verify.
  21. SnowenOutThere
    I find the argument “I lived through worse AQI and we still had events” so weird. Back then, we didn’t how bad it was for you and it was normalized so of course you held events in air which damaged your lungs, you didn’t know better! Now we do, so correspondingly we cancel. It’s like complaining that people wash their hands because we learned germ theory!
  22. SnowenOutThere
    Looks like MD has the worst of the plume on vis sat.
  23. SnowenOutThere
    Looks like we get another round later today in the afternoon from our NW.
  24. SnowenOutThere
    Wanted to ask you or other Mets if the CSL (swim league) should consider moving divisionals, our league wide qualifying meet for all stars, to Sunday. Warmups start 6am and meet starts 8am, ends by 12pm. @NorthArlington101 if you have any thoughts lmk.
  25. SnowenOutThere
    Cancelled practice on deck. Seems to be a little bit better now as the ABL should keep rising.
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