SnowenOutThere

Man I've wanted to make a breakdown post of my thoughts on this winter but I'm not sure I'll ever get around to it. I'm torn between giving this winter a harsh C- grade based on missing three HECS - one of which should've been a slam dunk to the point we had to be unlucky to miss - and the fact that the snowcrete sucked ass for all the activities I enjoy doing outside. I could characterize this winter as one that fell short in nearly every event outside of the December ones. On the other hand, this winter could be an A grade. We had 2 early December snowfalls! I went out to WV for a good snowstorm the 10th of November, and then again for two beautiful hikes in early January. The Jan 25th storm was a very cool experience - though flawed - it is one I will remember. Then we got a surprise snow burst at UVA in Feb (and one later in March with flowers out which was amazing). I got to travel up to NOVA for the missed late Feb HECS and got to enjoy a period of really heavy snow. I really think how you grade this winter comes down to what you value and what you're able to put aside. If you put aside the what ifs? Or the expectations of what it could've been - or should've been in case of Jan 25th - you get a winter that was extremely memorable, cold, had plenty of decent snow events (and some fun surprise ones!). Yet, I don't think its entirely fair to isolate it from that expectation. We rarely get chances like this winter and they did fall short. We did miss a HECS because literally everything that could go wrong from five days out did go wrong! We missed two more in less abnormal or rare ways, but we still did ultimately barely miss them. On a personal note, it is also the winter where I first really understood the mechanics of synoptics for the first time. This was both a blessing and a curse. It's amazing to be able to talk with some of the posters I've looked up to for years on some, though of course unequal, level. It's so cool to see how the jet interacts with synoptics to produce lift and cyclogenesis. It is an amazing feeling to be able to forecast based not off any surface map and then get it right and watch it snow (see the December storms)! It, however, also means it sucks to watch a setup that should, and was so close to, producing big simply fail to come together right. There is an acute awareness of exactly what went wrong (850 low in Ohio valley) and what is it doing, but you are just a spectator. Its a weird dynamic and one I need to learn better (probably involves only allowing myself to read models/post between 1pm and 7pm or something). Since I probably won't get around to a storm by storm breakdown I'll give my final grade here: B+. I can't quite go higher considering the snowcrete really messed up my ability to do anything fun outside for a month, alongside the mentioned close calls; but, going any lower is disrespecting what this winter actually was. Finally, I have kept an achieve of google docs with all my synoptic breakdowns throughout the winter. If anyone has interest in revisiting them/the storms let me know and I can clean them up and make a post with the links.

Speak for yourself. I'm up past 60 degrees at UVA. Beautiful spring day with a nice breeze.

One benefit of the warm weather is that my plan to wake up and take pictures of the sunrise is a lot less chilly for tomorrow. Otherwise, its been a dry heat which is better than a humid one... though, any temperatures above 80 this time of year aren't ideal.

I would recommend using Tropical tidbits with the NAM model selected. (Here is a link https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2026040712&fh=0) It will show the same thing as the previous tool. Of course, you could also change models to some other ones to help as well.

Wedge had been gone since 9am in Charlottesville.

Hmmm, some boundaries appear to be draped W-E across Reston. Other boundaries are from the Potomac moving west. Could see something interesting things happen.

Severe warned storms down around Roanoke. Seems more active than forecasted so far.

Nope, mind posting?

Highly recommend going out and doing this at least once in your life. While I think the cherry blossoms are otherwise overhyped and overdone; if you manage to get there early in the morning to watch deep night fade into morning's glow it is a magical experience.

Went on an adventure to see the cherry blossoms last weekend in DC. Started by waking up at 3am to get there early enough to get shots of the moon sinking over the horizon, of which, I couldn't be happier with. By 5am first light started to appear and with it the crowds. Pulses of people streamed onto the walkways. I went around the loop for sunrise. Got some shots along the way, and arguably my best ones of the day. Finally, the sun began to breach the DC skyline. At the end I was out of DC by 8am. Great experience, and huge thanks to my Dad for driving me in and finding parking.

Start. The. Bus. Up.

Don't know how long its been like this but we hit 1 million posts in our forum!

Could tomorrow be a possible severe weather day? We have strong low level lapse rates, good CAPE and some turning of winds with height - though next to no increase with height. Seems like some sort of thunderstorms should be likely along anything that could trigger forcing.

75 degrees and partly sunny with wind.

Oh I got an idea. So do most climate scientists

START THE BUS BACK UP BABY. MARCH SNOW ON SNOW IS INBOUND!!!

Do you think part of the issue with why we couldn't get any storms to really build was that second area of CIN? Seems like we managed to get storms to begin development but struggle to get past the shower stage so maybe that's the reason why.

Yeah, when you see the sounding from Monday without any of the wind profiles it becomes painfully clear that we were cooked with our thermal profile if we wanted severe. Had two different CIN areas and horrific lapse rates with next to no CAPE. Also hope this pen-paper diagram brought back some memories for our mets.

In my Atmo/Weather lab we're analyizing the soundings from this monday and making a scew T chart.

I think this is a fair take for nova and areas that got the final line. However, I’m in central VA and that second line had nothing to work with so for areas around where I was it really was a slight risk in practice. I do think the core of this issue might be the new system. When the SPC issues a 4/5 risk for wind I think it should call for something more than what occurred Monday. While it was a legitimate severe day for parts of the region, I wonder what happens if we get a storm that fulfills a slightly higher risk? Do we say it’s a 5/5 risk? That seems unfair when I think a true 5/5 risk should be a plains deracho with swaths of 90+ mph winds. These 4/5 and 5/5 events should feel rare and exceptional and are labeled as such to spur the public to action.

Love the SPC, but wondering how many of those reports occurred with the ending squall line which went through after they dropped percentages. I think they were completely justified in their 4/5 risk (and twitter/public mets retroactively throwing them under the bus suck) but its also fair to say that while justified the forecast failed. A failed forecast is not necessarily a bad one though. You have to warn for the high end in case it happens, hopefully people don't think next time its a boy cry wolf situation.

Anyone else tracking the potential snow showers this afternoon? HRRR seems insistent some make it over the mountains

Don't know if this is the appropriate place but some snow squalls making it over the mountains looks possible tomorrow. Anyways, if someone gets caught in one it might put down a quick coating based on the soundings

Results from my first ever (severe) storm chase! Good learning experience even if I didn't get to see anything warned (tornado or thunderstorm). Was some low level rotation but fell apart quickly and clearly had no momentum to do anything. Though, the flowers were pretty, and VA pediment is beautiful as always.