Jump to content

SnowenOutThere

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,724

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by SnowenOutThere

  1. SnowenOutThere
    A good period of upslope winds made some light rain sit over the area today and bring this event to around 1.3 inches total. Still on the low end, but better than where I was this morning. Regardless, I loved early fall rain and its ambiance, so I made sure to get some pictures while I was out and about. Might be my favorite type of weather behind snowfall. Pictures were taken by me, but some of them were edited by my boss.
  2. SnowenOutThere
    I think everyone knows where this winter stands. It'll be above average temperatures, especially in December and it is unlikely we get any real sustained periods of frigid temps, save our conception of how the atmosphere behaves in a strong el nino being wrong. It's also a good bet we will have favorable storm tracks and a very active subtropical jet stream to bring in above average precip. That is all we can really say. We can then formulate that this season will be a boom or bust depending on if we get lucky with a shot of cold air at the right time, but we can't speculate on any details of that responsibly. Anything else is extrapolating or doesn't have much climatological backing. That's it. We now just have to wait through at least October, if not November/December, to watch how the atmosphere couples with the oceans.
  3. SnowenOutThere
    .07 overnight with the next batch of rain looking like it slides east. Not done yet but storm total will probably be under .6 if I had to guess. Was really hoping for a nice soaking rain to go on a fun waterfall/river hike over the weekend. Might attempt some form of reanalysis to figure out what happened.
  4. SnowenOutThere
    Drizzled our way up another .1 to bring me to .4 total since Monday. Am very glad this isn’t winter as this was one of the worst model misses I can remember. Would be akin to if not worse than a Boxing Day rug pull if it was snow. Wonder what went wrong synoptically to cause such a miss.
  5. SnowenOutThere
    Around .3 in Charlottesville. Pretty bad model miss on the overnight-afternoon period today as most CAMs showed rotating bands of showers/storms embedded in a steady rain shield. Only drizzle since the overnight period, but they show overnight tonight as the new rainy period.
  6. SnowenOutThere
    Rain shield seems displaced north of Cvill. Sorta sucks for me but happy for the nova crew
  7. SnowenOutThere
    You think this storm system is a sign that we might be seeing the nino couple atmospherically? Looked briefly at the H5 maps and it seems to be almost miller-B ish though as most vorticity is coming from the north to the south (or is the subtropical jet still displaced north due to summer?)
  8. SnowenOutThere
    I'm most excited for the temps next week! Highs falling to near 60 degrees will be blissful. Some of my favorite weather is early fall rain as you get storm systems starting back up. It's humid but not the same oppressive 65 degree plus dewpoints. I've been so done with our extended summer.
  9. SnowenOutThere
    I mean when it comes to which models I want on my side that’s basically a list from “hell no” to “great to have”
  10. SnowenOutThere
    Wonder if there could be a flood threat about to unfold on the eastern foothills of the Shenandoahs down Charlottesville and south. Bunch of slow moving storms in an extremely moist airmass drifting towards an area that will provide orthographic lift.
  11. SnowenOutThere
    I am so tired of 65+ degree dewpoints. It seems that we can’t even catch a break outside of Monday for next week.
  12. SnowenOutThere
    Wonder if Charlottesville could do rather well with that sort of setup. I’m far enough west where I rely on a slightly more inland track for coastals than NOVA. As a side note, I think for my climatology class I’m going to be doing a semester research project on storm tracks based on El Niño vs La Niña and the different patterns you need to get snow in each. Will be done by December so might help with the upcoming season.
  13. SnowenOutThere
    Can see the cold front pushing south through the area defined by the line of showers on the radar. The SPC surface map shows the wind shift too!
  14. SnowenOutThere
    Definitionally anything generated by LLM is “ai slop”. AI models have no concern for the truth value of any generated output. They only care about predicting the next token/pixel/line no matter how right, wrong, pretty, or sloppy it looks. Furthermore, LLMs generally suck at broad tasks. They fake confidence and competence. Ask AI about your own special interest or hobby and you will find its output riddled with rather elementary errors in reasoning. Yes, sometimes it has the right “answer” but there is no process, the appearance of a process is just it predicting the actual process that would be there. Now, this only really applies to LLM models, as once you get into machine learning in general you can make it very good at these tasks. But, for what it’s worth, this is why LLMs should never be used in forecasting or forecasting graphic generation (ofc “AI” models are machine learning systems and have value”)
  15. SnowenOutThere
    UVA Sunset after a convective complex rolled through.
  16. SnowenOutThere
    DCAPE over me down at UVA is rather impressive. If the WV line holds together we could get some good wind damage.
  17. SnowenOutThere
    From my amateur SPC mesoanalysis skills I think that our region might get a bit screwed from the storm complex, at least when it comes to maximizing our severe threat. The best shear looks to be to the northeast of our area, alongside the best ML lapse rates. The instability gradient additionally rides right along Baltimore. Think that MD might be able to cash in but I'd be worried about the storms riding that gradient if I was in NOVA.
  18. SnowenOutThere
    3K NAM tracks a strong bowing segment through the area around 1am.
  19. SnowenOutThere
    I'm wondering how this winter might be different for myself down in Charlottesville. Obviously, I'm still in the hope for a big storm category but otherwise are there any meaningful differences?
  20. SnowenOutThere
    Ens are pretty rough. EPS goes cool for a bit around labor day before running back the heatwave we're in by late next week. CMCE keeps things cooler with more backdoor fronts. GEFS is a bit of a mix between the two that keeps us on the south side of any fronts, but has colder air up in PA.
  21. SnowenOutThere
    Think it looks pretty good to become a TS if it becomes strong enough. It has some surprisingly nice outflow to its south with a good level of anticyclonic spin aloft. Honestly, the limited convection makes it a good study of the cyclonic surface vs anticyclone aloft.
  22. SnowenOutThere
    Hoping Cvill can get in on the action once the ridge starts to break down towards the weekend.
  23. SnowenOutThere
    That’s why you gotta go out to them. It snows at the drop of a cold front out there. Last year I managed to sneak in an early November snow hike and a couple throughout January.
  24. SnowenOutThere
    @NorthArlington101Turns out UVA liked them too as I'm now a post on their Instagram. https://www.instagram.com/p/DclqopRDcKi/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsi=MzRlODBiNWFlZA%3D%3D
  25. SnowenOutThere
    Storms ruined my picnic plans last night, but once they moved out to the southeast they put on one of the most incredible lightning shows I've seen. One of those times were even other, presumably "normal" people stop to look up at the sky. Bolt after bolt ran along the clouds for hours. Had the privilege of walking down to watch it once with a friend and then later on with my camera. Won't be a night to forget.
×
×
  • Create New...