SnowenOutThere

I wonder if you could do a whole case study on events like that. It’s something I’ll think about as I progress through my college courses and humanities writings.

Dang DC’s mayor forecast gotta include rain in germantown, 0 inches at DCA and then 12 inches in NW DC. Tough world out there for mayors tweeting about snow.

I was about to comment that. Basically always trust the GFS 270 hours out.

I said I didn’t want to get political in my post discussing the initial claim of the NYC mayors tweet, that post on the other hand is a political statement yes. I mean we’ve butt heads on this stuff way back when so ofc I know we have our biases.

Man I’m not sure what would you want him to say? Forecasting is tricky, I myself put out a roughly 4-14 inch prediction for Nova because I can’t say with confidence where in that range we will lie.

DC south is sleet at this point

I mean the GFS is a bit faster with the sleet line but also has more QDF falling.

Btw NWS not backing down with their snowfall maps

Yeah it actually gets the coastal going.

Its trying its best to miss the SW phase. I assume this means drier first part but still amped second part.

I think both? Also has less 850mb winds from the south so far so it'll be colder too

Further east NS and further S SW. Seems to want to stick to its guns.

Ready for the GFS

Ah my bad, guess the map just showed freezing rain for funsies. Though with a layer that warm I'd think freezing rain isn't unlikely?

Honestly, I think next snowstorm I should block all weather sites and just let it ride till two days beforehand. The 0z runs Wednesday ruined me a bit and I forced myself to not look till 12z which helped me accept that its sleet town. I just wish that when I saw a singular model run that was bad for us it wasn't a death sentence. It's like we need every single run to show the jackpot and any deviation becomes our reality.

Find an old one from a previous storm and rage bait people with it.

Sorry after this week I want that snow stripe over Bermuda right now. At day five Bahamas are a good target and at day 1 I want the storm over east NC.

No, Freezing rain. Was saying that the other globals with their sleet solutions are wrong according to this high res model.

If the NAM replacement has any clue about the thermal profiles the sleet bomb for Central VA is going to be legit freezing rain.

I know but man I don't remember a single storm over a foot well. So to me we're using a one in ten year setup and it failed because... too much phasing. What the fuck. Since I've started this hobby we couldn't buy phasing to save my life when we needed it. Look at it from my or @bncho's perspective. We have tracked storms for years now and never once have we gotten trends that don't hurt us from day five in. We've seen now two extremely good chances of a major snowstorm within day five fall apart (ofc this year's example is less extreme, though it had an even better signal). It sucks, living through this back to back years makes me want to force myself to change hobbies because it just isn't worth any time investment. It sucks man and though I'll take a dynamic sleety mess cause its cool I'll be honest if my whole time tracking is anything to go by the worst outcome will happen and it'll some NAM outrunning situation. I mean why is it that when watching a major storm and something goes the wrong way (0z run Wednesday) we just aren't ever able to recover even incrementally. Sorry for the rant but man I'm just tired of always watching things fall apart.

ICON clearly has the same dual precip swath structure as the NAM/GFS

This is my worry as well. I think the bigger issue that just hasnt stopped going the wrong way for two days at this point is that we cannot for the life of us buy back any of the confluence we lost at the 0z Wednesday runs. If we are relying on solely a less developed wave without more confluence then we are subsequently relying on a far less powerful wave and hoping the GFS is fully right. I think that is what is so devastating to me from a what could've been perspective. If we had the confluence we were modeled to a couple days ago we wouldn't care too much about an overamped storm because it would've been a HECS before we flip.

I do agree the difference between a sub 9inch or so storm and a major 10+ snowstorm goes from an every (should be) two years or so to a real event.