SnowenOutThere

I like our position after the morning runs significantly more than before them last night. Seeing the Euro and Euro Ai together with positive steps from the CMC and GFS is very good.

Personally, I think that as this storm gets to within hour 120 (tomorrow 18z to 0z maybe 12z) that's when we all got to lock in. I look forward to making a long winded analysis once that happens but until then its not worth it (personally)... yet.

From my own experience of learning to drive in the snow over the past year I can attest there is nothing more that I hate than driving on "wet" mountain roads with temperatures in the 20s. Feels like a ticking time bomb. Driving in the snow is fine as long as you take it slow and learn to tap the breaks but slush/ice is a complete gamble.

I’m sure Ji will find a way to see it on radar regardless. Edit: damn it got ninjaed on a 1 minute reply

Thank you! I try to repay for my sins of earlier posting for those who remember it.

Yeah you're already far ahead of where I was back in 9th grade. I was too busy arguing on the now defunct political subforum of AMWX to lock in on the weather side till more recently.

Agreed. We have seen storms with seemingly great support fall apart inside day 5. As Eskimo Joe says we should all wait till Thursday to really get invested. As of now these runs are fun to think about but don't tell us anything other than the potential being there. I'm not trying to debbie down but just prevent the hype train from completely crashing and derailing the thread if an AI model pulls out (which could be temporary we still have 7 days!). FYI I am extremely proud of the derailing pun

If this fails it will do so differently (though not completely so) than last Feb. Last Feb was a classic coastal look that ended up getting squashed to hell by the PV coming in overtop instead of phasing with it. @psuhoffman I believe ended up making a great breakdown of that scenario where you either get a phase and it mixes or you get squashed and it is suppressed. This is not that. This is instead a the question of if vorticity can eject from out west and not get squashed by a strong cold push. We need to watch for 1. the vorticity to actually eject 2. for the cold push to not kill it. IMO its a wait and see game but I don't particularly love relying on vorticity to eject and beat fresh cold air. That said we got plenty of time to see how it shakes out.

We should really keep letting me start the threads, trust me I am completely unbiased.

Solid coating on everything with paved surfaces caved. Radar shows the upslope enhancement super well right now. Been dumping huge dendrites for a bit too.

Man this has been awesome. It’s stuff like this that got me into meteorology where for some reason it just starts doing something outside. Looking at radar standardsville and the eastern slopes of the Shenandoah may be a fun hike tomorrow. Must be some localized upslope from the wind direction.

I guess it’s just crazy I can barely see the rotunda from old cabel hall

Roads and pavement are caving. Really goes to show the power of creating the thread.

Genuinely the heaviest show I’ve gotten all year what the hell.

Legit heavy snow in Cvill with the grass now throughly dusted. What a nice surprise!

Yep snowing in Cvill

Euro was actually extremely close to a complete big dog but unfortunately got squashed by a fast moving lobe in the NS. If that was even 12 hours delayed we would be in business. Good to see though.

It has temps in the mid teens throughout the event so we would definitely be getting some help from ratios.

I may be misremembering but didn't they do quite poorly with today's event though?

If it makes you feel better it's all just aloft west of the bay.

Wait have people been treating the GFS/Euro OP play by plays for a storm over a week out as actual forecasting? I thought we were all doing it as a fun bit of entertainment/learning opportunity. Everybody here should know that the OPs are effectively useless 7+ days out and only become moderately (still defer to ens) from 7-5 days out before taking over within 4 days of the storm.

With the current placement of confluence it simply won’t hit us. However that might move east and let the sw vort eventually move moisture into our area.

Dude it’s a holiday weekend please go out to WV and hike in the snow

Cow pasture trail in cranberry wilderness WV. Absolutely beautiful country out there. Took 64 westbound on the way there and then punched through the mountains on the way back both took a little over 2 hours and 30 minutes. I think it might be one of my favorite spots as the trail I did was in a frost hollow which gave the lower parts/marsh a near tundra feel which is reflected in its vegetation. I plan to return there to hike some other trails hopefully this winter though no matter what I plan to revisit the trail I did in all 4 seasons. I also ran into a nice local feller who showed me the secrets of “trees on stilts” in the woods with his two huskies trailing as companions. Also had the luxury of sun which was unexpected but welcome! Not sure which tools to use to forecast for that microclimate of the ridge-line because they all seem to be consistently wrong. Frankly the whole microclimate astounds me as even 6 miles out from the trailhead it’ll be spotty snow otg before climbing into 3-4+ inches while even hiking another 3 miles into the woods you reach 6+! I’ll post some more pictures tomorrow.

So what did I miss today?