SnowenOutThere
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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere
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I’m not going to lie I love where we are at. I’m a little nervous about mixing down at UVA but as long as we don’t see any crazy north shifts today everyone should be fine for a (primarily) cold smoke. All the models have pretty much trended exactly how we want them too as well. Only thing is id love it if we don’t keep pushing this storm back!
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The Euro is doing exactly what we wanted it to with my breakdown yesterday. It’s managing to get help with the NS and have a legit HECS on the table.
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We’re starting to converge on a solution for part one. That was up until 0z a point of contention with the SW coming east. Now that’s more or less settled (hopefully) and we get to see what type of storm rolls east. We still got a couple days to go before we get to the solution with that one
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I think you’re right on this one. We’re past where Feb 20th failed
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That was the Ukmet scenario of 12z which it did hold. Tbh everything I’ve seen for 0z runs has moved in that direction (minus the ai gfs slightly)
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Thank you, it’s all in good fun and it’s an amazing reaction image
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Hey aren’t you mister “I only chase big dogs!” When are we getting your long post analyzing this thing! Your posts are half the reason I started doing my whole big ass analysis posts.
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1.4-1.8 QDF area wide on Ukmet
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It’s all you man, I’m on my phone and PW doesn’t allow copy paste on mobile
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PW refuses to load the snowfall total map for me lmao
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Looks like a slightly less intense counterpart to its 12z cycle
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Crazy Ukmet probably won’t hit its 12z peak but it’s looking good for a solid slam dunk area wide
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I have vol 1 at uva with me but left vol 2 at home
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I’m at UVA and more worried about mixing than suppression though I still think it’s a long shot to get a run like the CMC. It requires both the initial phase and subsequent phase to go perfectly. The op euro or other models that have messy both constructive and destructive stream interactions seem more likely to me which keeps us all snow.
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So we know who to blame if this all goes south (pun intended) from here
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Get out.
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Nah that’s leftover from what should’ve phased in and given us an even larger storm… I’m joking but it’s not technically impossible
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Starting to think it’s finally time I read the Northeast Snowstorms book this week.
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CMC has an extremely heavy thump of snow before mixing to sleet along DC in an axis SW to NE as if climbs the coast
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It was solidly too amped for my liking at 12z so it makes sense it stays on the northern edge of guidance.
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Battle of the century going on with the CMC between a near 1050 high and gulf moisture.
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Technically it’s 4 distinct pieces of energy that roll into one block but I feel like a quad phaser is clickbait
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I don’t want to alarm anyone but the CMC is going for a triple phase out west.
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FWIW if you alter the NS some you’re really close to an even better solution. Either way this run pretty much negates my main fear of the SW getting completely left behind and us striking out
