SnowenOutThere
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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere
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CMC is teeing up as well
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Nearly finished snowfall map as light snow exits
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Furthest north the mix line gets btw
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Its going to be a Euro style FOLKS event. The beat just dropped on the music I was listening to and that sums up what this GFS run is.
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A bit stronger and west SW is fine as long as we have the increased NS energy to compensate. Which oddly has been happening for every run.
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Icon has the crazy lift in the DGZ during the coastal takeover.
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Do you think we can get any thundersnow with this setup? No idea how dynamics work behind it or what to look for in general.
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Icon clearly has a better setup for NS and SW phase interaction 0z 18z
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Icon through hour 60 has a more tilted N-S for the NS that opens up the SW and leads to it progressing east than its 18z run. 0z on top 18z below
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God they are setting up some poor weather kid in NC to get bullied when they tell their friends to expect 2ft of snow.
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I guess, though that supposes that this phase goes off cleanly which I doubt at this time period.
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No, no lets not reshuffle like that. Genuine question is where do you see the north shift coming from? Synoptically I have a hard time seeing how much further it can go north with a solution like the 18z Euro as it has a perfect phase.
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How it works when you’re dealing with a phase of a monster SW and NS
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Will point out no matter what youre not getting slop. You'll be getting Ice.
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I'm honestly not sure how much further this can come north from a phase alone (famous last words). The Euro is the highest latitude it can reach bar confluence retreat (which is a possibility). Realistically I think we see a slightly messier phase so we don't need to worry that much even if the confluence is a bit overdone.
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Someone with actual meteorology training should tell us if thundersnow is a possibility with this thing. I assume less so than you'd expect as its overrunning.
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Appreciating Each Other/Poster Compliments
SnowenOutThere replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
Thanks! I partly make stuff like that and my past analyses cause of your encouragement so thank you. That said, don't ever feel shy about telling me I'm wrong. -
As much as we all want Blizzard warnings the wind speeds just aren't there. Will sadly need to take a winter storm warning for 16-20 inches instead.
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Just saw what you did. Thanks! In the future I'll try to post it during the off run (I guess either 5-6 or 7-10ish) but I was rushing to try to get it out before the 18z Euro messed with it (and I wanted to get food). See I'd be a lot more partial to that if I was a met otherwise I'm just another poster here. Though I suppose an argument could be made for starting a separate storm banter thread and storm mode thread in the future if it holds together.
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I know, just sucks.
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I dunno just sucks to put in over an hour on a post to watch it get buried to the previous page when its a full breakdown of our storm.
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Crazy how it manages to get that snowfall max in the South Central VA while having us mix with freezing rain. Would be a nightmare scenario for well... everyone who has a life they need to do things in.
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Ngl pisses me off to delete enough posts to move my whole synopsis to the bottom of the previous page! I understand you guys gotta do it but cmon.
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It does exactly what I wanted it to do in my analysis: "In order to reach our theoretical limit we want to see 1. All of the SW energy comes east 2. A sharper and further west NS trough 3. A more south NS trough to capture the surface low and prevent mixing."
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God damn it I'm going to have to rewrite part of my analysis cause this is just a full on max run. Expect an edit shortly
