SnowenOutThere

Whole different look up top for the window after the 16th. Seems to work out for us (or at least CAPE) but is a different shortwave interaction that leads to it occurring. Def won't know what happens with this one for a bit.

So what I'm hearing is we start the thread now, watch the storm trend away from us, and then restart the thread at HRRR range and have the reverse bust of the century. On a serious note what is there to even look for on the map when its so chaotic. I feel like I can examine simple setup but no idea on how to even approach what factors cause a storm like this to amplify.

Looks far more consolidated out west so far. Just need it to not hold energy back and we might be looking at another hit.

What are your thoughts on when we might start seeing runs with actual importance (for lack of a better word) behind them? With this setup I personally am thinking itll be within cam range where we will actually get useful information on what may occur.

Heres a pretty map

I mean its hard to go completely wrong if you're managing to phase the NS and southern stream in mid January right off the east coast. Really think we just need to keep seeing the phasing happen.

Tbh there is so much interaction going on upstairs that I think the only thing we can look for is the setup staying relatively the same (and other models moving towards GFS) and then seeing which way it might actually go within 48 hours of the event as everything is in motion.

I def think this run will be "worse" (less deep trough and slightly more positive tilt) but grand scheme of things nothing major has changed. 18z 12z

And higher heights upstream as well

Don’t really know what you mean as that seems like a reasonable spread for a weekish out. Really just shows a good signal for a coastal

I think that the larger issue is the southern Canadian squasher which is messing up the ability for the southern part to really intensify. Gonna need to watch that feature

Hey if it wasn’t for those posters and all of their encouragement the other type wouldn’t exist at all

Would get some insane upslope worth a trip out to WV

Not gonna lie the past two days have been a nice reprise from our actually cold December and November. In a weird way my body feels like it’s late February because it’s been so long since December snow.

Nah you don’t understand the goal of being young on a forum of 30+ year olds and wanting to prove then that you can learn. Hes gonna be goated trust me

At this point I think the only real thing to note is that we have a deep trough over the eastern US and several shortwaves that appear poised to dive in over a west coast ridge which may (or may not) help amplify the broad trough into distinct storm systems. Otherwise we just have to wait and see because (and I may be wrong) I doubt this will be a great setup for models to get right with more than even 4 days in advance.

Decided to finally read up my Northeast Snowstorms book now that I have the tools to understand it. Will be taking some notes and sharing them here later to help in the future tracking.

Pretty amazing depiction to get snow down to the Gulf states all the way into the Canadian Maritimes. No matter what this upcoming time period looks loaded.

Also think that the CMC looks like it might get a hit at the end of its run.

Gotta love the GFS

Ngl I think it’s time for my break to end as I like what I’m seeing. Will dive into the meteorology some more this afternoon though I think we’re close to something (possibly major) for the 15-20 period.

Pretty sunset alert!

Holy fuck. The level that this thread has reached in the past couple days is abysmal and the worst I’ve seen since joining here in 2021. What I will say is I joined this forum in middle school and never felt the need to clog up these threads like some posters and frankly it is embarrassing for them. Additionally, for the posters whose lives seem to revolve around snow we live a mere 2-3 hours away from towns which average 170 inches of snow a year with 8in+ OTG right now! If you must see snow that desperately you have options other than complaining! Personally, I’ll be taking a step back for a bit for at least a week as 1. I recognize I can’t add value to long range forecasting 2. I like tracking discrete threats 3. It’s not worth reading aside from a few great posters. I implore those who need to see snow to go out to WV, and for everyone else to enjoy the hopefully brief period of milder weather as there’s more the outdoors than just snow.

Pictures from out in WV today. Could really see the rime icing at higher altitudes, was a whole different microclimate then even 20 miles eastward over the ridge.

Plan to head out to backwater falls tomorrow with my dad!