SnowenOutThere

The fact we are comparing the hour 84 NAM to Icon really makes me think we’re insane

Wonder if it’s almost a case of too much of a good thing at h5 with the bombing out. Maybe with such an intense depression in the atmosphere it encourages surface cyclogensis to progress through its stages too rapidly. Subsequently it’s too late to actually develop a good moisture fetch as the moist air transport is cut by the occlusion. Though honestly I have no clue. Only other thing that I think lends credence to my theory is that the upper levels are so dominant it forces cyclogenesis over the middle of NC instead of the normal coastal temp gradient. Dunno how we actually improve this situation though (as in what to watch for)

I think it was still a minor improvement H5 level

I mean from what is advertised it makes sense but its just crazy to see the main vorticity go from central MN to central MO without moving any further east. An additional question I have is what makes some vorticity to be ropes vs lobes. I understand its a measure of small air parcels spinning counterclockwise which indicates diffusion in the atmosphere which is tied to upper level winds and temp advection but still cant quite grasp why it actually appears like it does.

I really doubt that surface low ends up being where it is considering it forms over central NC and not over the usual coastal boundary interaction. Verbatim is an interesting snow map

118 temps are iffy

Ironically I'm slightly concerned this may be too far west with a low over central NC

Neg tilt by hour 105

H5 pass will definitely be far to our south which is what @Terpeast has been hammering home as our ticket.

I mean the top is 0z and bottom is 18z. I find it hard to see this miss, just look at that lobe digging south.

The height lines seemed backed a smidge further west with more vorticity in the main lobe angled west. Additionally, the ribbon of vorticity running out ahead of the lobe (paving its path) seems to be a bit more intense and catching the southern energy better. So far I am hopeful.

Or hour 69

Correct me if I’m wrong but doesn’t this storm have some level of southern stream involvement? Obviously it’s mainly a miller B type storm but looking at the setup I thought it was at least sorta phased with southern energy which helped get the storm to pull south. The 250mb wind also shows the southern wind maximum getting absorbed.

Still snowing but between how the December storms shook out for me and how your storm is named maybe there's a bias in calling dibs on a storm.

Whole different look up top for the window after the 16th. Seems to work out for us (or at least CAPE) but is a different shortwave interaction that leads to it occurring. Def won't know what happens with this one for a bit.

So what I'm hearing is we start the thread now, watch the storm trend away from us, and then restart the thread at HRRR range and have the reverse bust of the century. On a serious note what is there to even look for on the map when its so chaotic. I feel like I can examine simple setup but no idea on how to even approach what factors cause a storm like this to amplify.

Looks far more consolidated out west so far. Just need it to not hold energy back and we might be looking at another hit.

What are your thoughts on when we might start seeing runs with actual importance (for lack of a better word) behind them? With this setup I personally am thinking itll be within cam range where we will actually get useful information on what may occur.

Heres a pretty map

I mean its hard to go completely wrong if you're managing to phase the NS and southern stream in mid January right off the east coast. Really think we just need to keep seeing the phasing happen.

Tbh there is so much interaction going on upstairs that I think the only thing we can look for is the setup staying relatively the same (and other models moving towards GFS) and then seeing which way it might actually go within 48 hours of the event as everything is in motion.

I def think this run will be "worse" (less deep trough and slightly more positive tilt) but grand scheme of things nothing major has changed. 18z 12z

And higher heights upstream as well

Don’t really know what you mean as that seems like a reasonable spread for a weekish out. Really just shows a good signal for a coastal