SnowenOutThere

I think the main divergence is in if we can get the coastal to help us out. The 18z Euro shows a solution where we get pretty much no help from the coastal besides aiding in some moisture fetch and instead rely on the H5 dynamics to get any sort of snowfall. Meanwhile, the other camp of the GFS and CMC instead have the coastal prominently help out the H5 max through aiding in lift, moisture transport, and even cold air through the CCB. Is a bit of a egg and chicken game too where a stronger H5 vortmax is more likely to capture/induce a more favorable surface low position.

Big jump in number of members with at least an inch of snow. Up from 30-40% to 60-70%

An underrated aspect of the high end scenario runs is how this type of storm would go a decent way in starting to alleviate the drought our area is experiencing. Additionally, I feel that its been a while since we've seen a true photogenic paste bomb storm which sticks to everything. Hopefully this can be the one.

This is completely true but with that sound snow would be coming down. Look at that lift in the DGZ and it saturated. Agree that accumulation will be hurt but it wouldn't have any problem sticking to grass.

Beautiful occlusion as the low moves out to sea

Snow ending for all but Delmarva.

Can see the dipole low form in response to the best H5 diffluence being over the coast.

Placed right under the left exit quadrant of the jet streak

Quite the nice H5 and surface low panel

No matter what it is a hit. Now its time to see the upside.

H5 vort at hour 93 seems to support a tuck

Surface is low is both notably stronger and focused more westward at hour 87.

GFS appears to be coming in with a deeper H5 low. Now just need to see if it can 1. induce cyclogenesis soon enough 2. capture it

Wait and see what'll happen. I don't really care to synoptically analyze this like I did with our December storms and January event because unfortunately the more likely outcome as of now is no snow. Most ens keep the possibility of an inch of snow somewhere in the 40-60% range which frankly shows this isn't worth getting excited over. Just need to pray that the H5 pass trends further south or west depending on the model to capture the surface low in the ideal spot. Nothing we can do but hurry up and wait.

Both have Charlottesville only gaining snow run to run. #Trend #Snowtown

With this setup maybe we have so many opposing ways this storm can go wrong that they end up canceling each other out

I hope ships avoid that blob of FGEN or risk getting sucked up to the 700mb layer

From my brief analysis the issue is that the H5 jumps east a bit which prevents the surface low from retrograding near Chesapeake and crushing us. Don't quite know why this happens but I'm not too worried about the specific outcomes till later this week. Was very close.

Can see how you get the dynamics that jump east with the coastal

H5 captures and stacks with surface low here

Now thats how you do a CCB

CMC will be playing the thermals game with a closed 925mb low off the NC coast trying to pull in cold air. Should get it done.

CMC will be a vort pass over out latitude

Not really! I'm saying that this run is probably further off of a real blizzard than some of its runs yesterday. The mechanism that allowed for us to get near 6 inches of snow is different than the mechanism that would promote a blizzard. Yes, the two are linked, but we would need a dramatic change with the H5 low capturing the surface low instead of simply providing upper level diffluence which promotes lift of the moisture fetch from the Atlantic!

Not really, its mainly detached from the coastal. Instead its a great H5 pass I think with a good amount of moisture fetch to squeeze it out. The real blizzard conditions are reserved for the Atlantic ocean.