SnowenOutThere
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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere
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huh lmao
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There is a difference between mixing with sleet during a lull and pounding sleet during the WAA. CMC pounds sleet. That's not a hallmark of greatness.
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Absolute huge changes were made out west to get the CMC to where it is. Will need to monitor if its real
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No it is not. Frankly its a ridiculous statement. In order to get the goods we don't need a huge ass full phase out west. Remember, the Ukmet has shown its HECS in part because the phase is so messy which leads to better moisture transport. We want to see less NS interaction going into the 6z suite for some of the models now.
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Congrats to @brooklynwx99 on his CMC run! This run officially makes suppression no longer my biggest concern if we're going to have this much energy out west.
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CMC will be a sleet bomb. Shows the danger of having a complete NS phase in
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Might have a generational run depending on that NS vort
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CMC is teeing up as well
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Nearly finished snowfall map as light snow exits
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Furthest north the mix line gets btw
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Its going to be a Euro style FOLKS event. The beat just dropped on the music I was listening to and that sums up what this GFS run is.
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A bit stronger and west SW is fine as long as we have the increased NS energy to compensate. Which oddly has been happening for every run.
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Icon has the crazy lift in the DGZ during the coastal takeover.
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Do you think we can get any thundersnow with this setup? No idea how dynamics work behind it or what to look for in general.
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Icon clearly has a better setup for NS and SW phase interaction 0z 18z
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Icon through hour 60 has a more tilted N-S for the NS that opens up the SW and leads to it progressing east than its 18z run. 0z on top 18z below
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God they are setting up some poor weather kid in NC to get bullied when they tell their friends to expect 2ft of snow.
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I guess, though that supposes that this phase goes off cleanly which I doubt at this time period.
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No, no lets not reshuffle like that. Genuine question is where do you see the north shift coming from? Synoptically I have a hard time seeing how much further it can go north with a solution like the 18z Euro as it has a perfect phase.
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How it works when you’re dealing with a phase of a monster SW and NS
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Will point out no matter what youre not getting slop. You'll be getting Ice.
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I'm honestly not sure how much further this can come north from a phase alone (famous last words). The Euro is the highest latitude it can reach bar confluence retreat (which is a possibility). Realistically I think we see a slightly messier phase so we don't need to worry that much even if the confluence is a bit overdone.
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Someone with actual meteorology training should tell us if thundersnow is a possibility with this thing. I assume less so than you'd expect as its overrunning.
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Appreciating Each Other/Poster Compliments
SnowenOutThere replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
Thanks! I partly make stuff like that and my past analyses cause of your encouragement so thank you. That said, don't ever feel shy about telling me I'm wrong. -
As much as we all want Blizzard warnings the wind speeds just aren't there. Will sadly need to take a winter storm warning for 16-20 inches instead.
