SnowenOutThere

Love to see less southern outliers on the ENS 12z 6z You can also see a stronger Tennessee valley handoff signal as well on 12z.

I wonder if the rates might be underdone by 10:1 ratios if we get a deep DGZ with moisture. Additionally, it wouldn't surprise me if we get some supper fluffy snow at some points which piles up nice and quick.

I was also having a bit of a crash out from some Feb 20th flashbacks with that GFS run. Though with the GEFS still looking that solid we're fine unless the Euro tries to ruin our lives. Just want to see the GFS move back to us at 18z and we'll be all good.

Man say what you will about the UK but it has been extremely steady on both precip max and distribution since yesterday.

GEFS holds a bit more energy back (not surprising) but generally seems fine.

Alright, I have now found something to doom on. We can't afford a meet in the middle or even give much ground at all to how the GFS handles the SW if we want an ICON/CMC storm. I think we will know the flavor of the storm by tonight 0z or tomorrow 12z at the latest for what happens out west.

We need the first phase to be nearly perfect with next to no southern energy left behind for a HECS. For 6z this looked like a good consensus but now with 12z shifting the other way I agree its time to put those talks on hold till we see which way it goes at 18z and 0z.

I was hoping with our 6z consensus we were out of the woods with the first phase handling out west. Agree that we still have to get through at least 0z tonight now... Additionally, the GFS coming to the normal solution before shifting back is worrying to me. Probably means we meet somewhere in the middle which would still be okay for us.

Love the CMC look but agree we probably don't want to see anymore south shifts due to the SW being held back

CMC will be fine

CMC is a step towards the Euro (and I guess technically the GFS but its not even in the same realm). Though I didn't love how amped it was so for now its fine for it to move slightly that way.

It might manage to get a storm with the next NS at hour 140 and beyond but either way its not what we want.

Its in between its 18z run yesterday and the rest of the models with the SW low. Just need to hope its wrong

GFS while dragging its heels a bit out west still has some interaction so it still should get the East coast storm. We're not back to the truly terrible 18z run yesterday.

Now it’s a true 2016 redux with an event the days before

In a tech free classroom from now till 10:50 good luck to everyone tracking! Someone dm me what the gfs does

Eh not much to doom on yet. I’d be the first to point it out but so far we’re good.

Cap for this storm if everything pans out is probably a bit above the 12z Ukmet. Now, of course, I don't think thats the likely cap but it is probably near the theoretical cap. Likely cap is probably something like the 6z Euro with a foot and a half area wide plus area wide. The reason the euro is less snowy is the interaction with the NS goes differently than the Ukmet. On the Ukmet it actually stretches the vorticity out while still helping the eastern part of it generate a strong low pressure. This is why the Ukmet is pretty far south with its mixing line. However, it manages to also have insane moisture transport from this whole stretching business. I mean lmao it has the jet streak start over the Pacific and a secondary right entrance quadrant over us. Couldn't ask for much better. Meanwhile the 6z Euro actually has a cleaner phase out west. Eventually it all wraps up in one big vorticity ball and comes east. This is what allows it to climb the coast and make people like @brooklynwx99 very happy. However, for us it's "worse" because 1. mixing line is further north and 2. for us it technically doesn't have quite the same moisture fetch from the Pacific and the double left exit region/rear entrance region lift combo. Overall I think that sums up the differences pretty well. They key reason for all this btw is that the Ukmet is faster with the SW which allows it to have that messy NS interaction. It also means our storm starts and ends before the Euro does the same. Ultimately I think both solutions are great though ofc I would prefer the Ukmet (and to some extent think a messy phasing thing out west is more likely). I'll make a more in depth post after the 12z runs come it.

Yep. Let’s just get the models to show the same thing they have been for today.

No, it petty much is. Though arguably it’s a mix of that and a colder/better oriented scenario 5.

I’m not going to lie I love where we are at. I’m a little nervous about mixing down at UVA but as long as we don’t see any crazy north shifts today everyone should be fine for a (primarily) cold smoke. All the models have pretty much trended exactly how we want them too as well. Only thing is id love it if we don’t keep pushing this storm back!

The Euro is doing exactly what we wanted it to with my breakdown yesterday. It’s managing to get help with the NS and have a legit HECS on the table.

We’re starting to converge on a solution for part one. That was up until 0z a point of contention with the SW coming east. Now that’s more or less settled (hopefully) and we get to see what type of storm rolls east. We still got a couple days to go before we get to the solution with that one

I think you’re right on this one. We’re past where Feb 20th failed