SnowenOutThere

So far no major changes through hour 60. Going to need to watch the NS interaction coming up. Edit: Take this back as the Southern vort is slightly more eastward and slightly more north which cant hurt us.

Most important run of the GFS so far for 2026 running. Big difference I'm looking for is around the hour 100 mark with the handling of shortwave over the Pac NW that either cuts off our southern stream energy or kicks/phases it eastward. The 6z difference in Euro vs GFS shows it nicely. GFS on top Euro on bottom.

Also you know its a real threat when we got a bunch of mets posting in the thread!

Quick hit. Not great but a big improvement both H5 and surface.

Real question is who starts the thread

Just wait for the snow to ice event to end all ice events. To be completely honest that is the real worst case scenario from impacts perspective and not an unlikely one. Would be a significant snow storm followed by a bit of sleet than freezing rain which would actually accrete to everything with temperatures in the teens before crashing to near 0 with widespread blackouts from the storm. IMO this is what we gotta avoid from a “holy shit people will die” perspective.

My thinking is similar to yours. Personally I think we’re in a pretty good spot as of now considering that the AI GFS/Ukmet are almost too far north. Main thing I want to see out of today is the Euro and Euro ai to hold and have the CMC and GFS come closer to that solution. I think the way we get that is have the pv to our northeast be a bit less intense or (better yet though less likely) have a stronger low. That said, I wouldn’t want models to all suddenly jump way north today but just show increasing confidence a total miss to the south is unlikely.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The potential for a possibly significant winter storm has increased for this weekend, but uncertainty remains. The upper air pattern resembles what appears to be a very favorable pattern for a winter storm somewhere in the eastern U.S. heading into this weekend. Before that, a potent cold front pushes through the region late Thursday into Friday, followed by a reinforcing Arctic front late Friday into Saturday. This will lead to increasingly cold conditions each day from Thursday through the entire weekend. Well below average temperatures are forecast, especially by Sunday. In addition, some upslope snow showers are possible with each front. By the end of the week and especially heading into the weekend, the upper-level pattern becomes quite active in both the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. Model guidance is still very much all over the place in regards to exactly what comes of this, but there is growing consensus for an area of low pressure developing across the south-central/southeastern CONUS. Depending on when and where that area of low pressure develops, as well as where it goes after it does develop, there could be significant wintry precipitation across our area sometime next weekend. Uncertainty remains with this system, as there is some potential that strong Arctic high pressure could suppress the system south. However, that high (~1040 mb Arctic high) is also a source of very cold air; this likely remains in place due to a favorable -AO/-NAO blocking pattern. Meanwhile, there are an increasing amount of ensemble members that bring significant wintry precipitation to the region due to an amplified southern stream influence - something we have seen very little of so far this winter (typical of La Nina). The low may not escape as easily out to sea given the -NAO block. The nearby steady source of very cold air and the amplified southern stream occurring in tandem are what raise some red flags for significant wintry precipitation potential this weekend. The latest ensemble guidance is certainly on the upward trend in that regard, but that doesn`t mean it can`t swing back in the other direction. It will be key to monitor this threat closely in the coming days as the different parts of the system become better sampled by surface and upper air obs. Current model spread indicates an axis of significant snow/ice could be as far north as Upstate New York, or as far south as the Carolinas. Bolded some key parts of the afd

I was so confused when I woke up and saw snow outside before I remembered that yesterday happened

Sad how no matter what the models show it’ll always rain in Gaithersburg

I believe this would be a better run than the 0z was

Not really. It has a far norther storm but gets there differently than the ai gfs. Ai gfs is still primarily a west to east system that just gains some more latitude while the ukmet just rams the primary low up the Ohio valley to our west.

It’s a good sign for you guys up in Nova and MD if I’m starting to sweat the mixing line down at UVA. Better not happen though because I do NOT want to have to drive up to Nova for this.

I like our position after the morning runs significantly more than before them last night. Seeing the Euro and Euro Ai together with positive steps from the CMC and GFS is very good.

Personally, I think that as this storm gets to within hour 120 (tomorrow 18z to 0z maybe 12z) that's when we all got to lock in. I look forward to making a long winded analysis once that happens but until then its not worth it (personally)... yet.

From my own experience of learning to drive in the snow over the past year I can attest there is nothing more that I hate than driving on "wet" mountain roads with temperatures in the 20s. Feels like a ticking time bomb. Driving in the snow is fine as long as you take it slow and learn to tap the breaks but slush/ice is a complete gamble.

I’m sure Ji will find a way to see it on radar regardless. Edit: damn it got ninjaed on a 1 minute reply

Thank you! I try to repay for my sins of earlier posting for those who remember it.

Yeah you're already far ahead of where I was back in 9th grade. I was too busy arguing on the now defunct political subforum of AMWX to lock in on the weather side till more recently.

Agreed. We have seen storms with seemingly great support fall apart inside day 5. As Eskimo Joe says we should all wait till Thursday to really get invested. As of now these runs are fun to think about but don't tell us anything other than the potential being there. I'm not trying to debbie down but just prevent the hype train from completely crashing and derailing the thread if an AI model pulls out (which could be temporary we still have 7 days!). FYI I am extremely proud of the derailing pun

If this fails it will do so differently (though not completely so) than last Feb. Last Feb was a classic coastal look that ended up getting squashed to hell by the PV coming in overtop instead of phasing with it. @psuhoffman I believe ended up making a great breakdown of that scenario where you either get a phase and it mixes or you get squashed and it is suppressed. This is not that. This is instead a the question of if vorticity can eject from out west and not get squashed by a strong cold push. We need to watch for 1. the vorticity to actually eject 2. for the cold push to not kill it. IMO its a wait and see game but I don't particularly love relying on vorticity to eject and beat fresh cold air. That said we got plenty of time to see how it shakes out.

We should really keep letting me start the threads, trust me I am completely unbiased.

Solid coating on everything with paved surfaces caved. Radar shows the upslope enhancement super well right now. Been dumping huge dendrites for a bit too.

Man this has been awesome. It’s stuff like this that got me into meteorology where for some reason it just starts doing something outside. Looking at radar standardsville and the eastern slopes of the Shenandoah may be a fun hike tomorrow. Must be some localized upslope from the wind direction.

I guess it’s just crazy I can barely see the rotunda from old cabel hall