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SnowenOutThere

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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere

  1. SnowenOutThere
    Our AQI is hitting into mid-high 300s right now, over 100 from what was forecasted. Wish I pushed to cancel practice.
  2. SnowenOutThere
    It’s nasty out there. Smell is worse than I remembered from a couple years ago. AQI is around 150 so we still aren’t in the worst of it.
  3. SnowenOutThere
    This is one of the more legitimate discussions we've gotten this year. Not too often large hail is mentioned so often for us. 3k NAM into the future has CAPE nearly reaching 5000 in ffx county as the first round of storms roll through. Has appreciable supercell/tor composite values thanks to the shear mentioned in the AFD and some turning with height alongside the directional stuff. As mentioned, even after it gets dark we stay with impressive CAPE values of 3000+! Question for our mets, but could the D-word get tossed around with that line of storms overnight?
  4. SnowenOutThere
    Isn't this blatantly wrong? It's the HRRR that always has the overmixing problem, just in the past couple setups the soundings from the Nam may show 3000 CAPE while HRRR is out with 1000 or less. This is a good reminder that AI is bullshit; as in it is extremely confident but has no actual checks on if it is true which is my personal definition of bullshit. It always sounds "correct" until it is your field of expertise you ask it on.
  5. SnowenOutThere
    It shunts the 200+ near surface smoke off to our east (Capeland) so we get values around 100. Talked to the team reps for my swim team and fought to get practices reduced from 1 hour to 45 minutes for age groups tomorrow. My atmosphere course last fall really emphasized how pm is not something you want to play around with when it comes to nearly any exposure. It's the day before divisionals so we're tapering anyways.
  6. SnowenOutThere
    I generally think he tends to be a jaded weenie where he predicts warmth but gets sucked into a snow threat when it appears. That said, he’s better than most online forecasters and does know his technical stuff. He’s a guy who I’d rather have on our side when forecasting a storm but he’s been wrong before too.
  7. SnowenOutThere
    Ten years ago was when the 2016 nino altered our base state to be warmer thanks to climate change. Since then we’ve dealt with that consequence by having often warm winters which lack in the snowfall department, so I’d imagine the base state change is probably a major player for the fires as well.
  8. SnowenOutThere
    Looks like Thursday morning will be rough according to the HRRR. Interestingly it keeps west of the blue ridge/shenandoah shielded from the near surface smoke.
  9. SnowenOutThere
    The bay/river boundary pushing across ffx county is desperately trying to get a storm going up over Reston. Have watched it grow for the past 10 minutes.
  10. SnowenOutThere
    Got a flush hit with the ffx cell. Ominous vibes as the first half of the storm had ever increasing rainfall rates that climbed past 1, then 2, then 3 inch/hour as gusts of wind came through. Hit the peak of 3.4 inch/hour as the wind died out, some of the heaviest rates I’ve ever seen. Made even my family come out to look. Still pouring but estimating I’ll finish around a bit above an inch (maybe more if the secondary cell over Dulles hits too). If you look at a longer radar loop (codnexrad is my favorite site for that) you can see how the outflow boundary from MD interacted with the leftover boundary in western fairfax to pop the storms right along it. Neat stuff.
  11. SnowenOutThere
    Ngl I’m getting better at this whole forecasting thing.
  12. SnowenOutThere
    Good boundary is moving south. Seems there might be an old remnant (from yesterday I guess) one north to south across western ffx county as well. Maybe that with the Reston UHI/city convergence can get something going.
  13. SnowenOutThere
    I agree with that take but wonder how it would go without a change into cross polar flow. When we rely on home grown cold it might be different.
  14. SnowenOutThere
    Do you think the setup would still work with climate change? I ask as typically when our pattern is shit it takes a good while to ever get cold again.
  15. SnowenOutThere
    This is the most pity of pity MDs released.
  16. SnowenOutThere
    If I had to guess our horrible lapse rates are doing something. We are sitting around 5.5 ml lapse rates which nearly puts us to a stable atmosphere.
  17. SnowenOutThere
    What about on the edge of an actual MD day? I always find those worse.
  18. SnowenOutThere
    3k NAM has a neat cyclonic feature near Kentucky that lasts all Sunday.
  19. SnowenOutThere
    There’s now a well defined hook on radar.
  20. SnowenOutThere
    That MD cell has some storm rotation. Not tight or anything but I’m sure someone will get a nice storm picture of a sculpted base or something.
  21. SnowenOutThere
    Checked the mesoscale discussion and didn’t realize we are well over 3000 CAPE currently in the region. You can see the best forcing is still out in WV with all the pop up storms before it moves east later. Got LL lapse rates heading to 8+ c/km. Our hodographs are weak but not terrible too. I made a more detailed write up of today last night in the severe thread but we could see something interesting today. Got a severe T-storm parameter of 4 right now as well!
  22. SnowenOutThere
    I’ve said this in the past but man flash flood watches should not have been discontinued. A flood watch is far too broad of a product that tries to handle widespread synoptic setups that are more river flood based and pop up storms that dump over a small area and cause extreme flash flooding.
  23. SnowenOutThere
    Jokes aside aren’t we staring down a likely east based strong to very strong El Niño? I take climatology in the fall but my base teleconnections knowledge say that it won’t snow much.
  24. SnowenOutThere
    35 degree 5 inch rainstorm is gonna go so crazy.
  25. SnowenOutThere
    Was looking at the models for tomorrow and I think we could be in for a surprise. The setup has 3000+ CAPE on both the NAM and the HRRR (maintains low 70s dewpoints). Additionally, there is a shortwave that nears our region to put us in divergence aloft from 4-6pm west to east. However, this shortwave also appears to draw in a time sensitive increase in our 0-6 shear to 20-30 knots, while that still isn't good for severe storms it opens the door to having some level of organization. To add onto this factor is that the HRRR shows a small lee trough develop during the afternoon hours which causes a decently curved hodograph for the lower levels. To reiterate its nothing insane, but might be a sneaky day for supercellular storms to form and rotate. The HRRR and NAM both show storm relative helicity values for 0-3km of around 100 as well. Typical mid-atl caveats apply (our ML lapse rates suck) and I'm not saying this will be some crazy day, but just that it shouldn't be slept on. @vortex95 would love to know your/any other mets/wannabe mets thoughts. Below is the HRRR and NAM sounding, can see the difference the lee trough makes with the HRRR having that curved hodograph.
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