SnowenOutThere

Pretty sunset alert!

Holy fuck. The level that this thread has reached in the past couple days is abysmal and the worst I’ve seen since joining here in 2021. What I will say is I joined this forum in middle school and never felt the need to clog up these threads like some posters and frankly it is embarrassing for them. Additionally, for the posters whose lives seem to revolve around snow we live a mere 2-3 hours away from towns which average 170 inches of snow a year with 8in+ OTG right now! If you must see snow that desperately you have options other than complaining! Personally, I’ll be taking a step back for a bit for at least a week as 1. I recognize I can’t add value to long range forecasting 2. I like tracking discrete threats 3. It’s not worth reading aside from a few great posters. I implore those who need to see snow to go out to WV, and for everyone else to enjoy the hopefully brief period of milder weather as there’s more the outdoors than just snow.

Pictures from out in WV today. Could really see the rime icing at higher altitudes, was a whole different microclimate then even 20 miles eastward over the ridge.

Plan to head out to backwater falls tomorrow with my dad!

For those who slept in heres a picture of the storm at its height for me. Wind was brutal plus legit heavy snowfall, first time ever I can remember seeing such a combination.

Best event of 2026!

That was a more unique experience than I expected. Whipping wind the whole time with grapuel snow mix pelting me.

Waiting for the squall to hit in like 10 minutes.

0z Euro is worse. NS completely crushes instead of partial phase for Jan 4th. Happy 2026

Seriously looking at this possibility we need the NS to slow down in relation to the southern shortwave as right now it is outrunning our southern piece by a solid 12-24 hours. While obviously this would be a major change its not altogether impossible if pieces start moving this way by tomorrow morning. Additionally, our southern shortwave moving further north (which is the trend considering our block failing to form) would help in this process. Another thing to note is a small piece of energy detached from our shortwave out west which seems to help move it push the precip north and constructively interact with the NS. Looking at the recent Euro run (top) vs old run (bottom) this is quite clear to see. Now that previous discussion was focused on salvaging this into a decent snowstorm. If instead we set our sights on a far more reasonable coating to 1inch storm we just need the Euro as it is to be right. Though, an interesting solution is the NAM. The NAM opts to have no NS interaction and instead brings a stronger southern vort north on its own. While this has the thermals shot (partially due to no cold push I assume) it manages to get a solid quarter inch of ice in the area. As for now all we can do is see which way the models evolve. Though, it wouldn't surprise me to see this creep north as @Terpeast mentioned with the blocking up north failing to materialize.

Watch this be a reverse Feb 20 type bust where we manage to get a phase of the NS and southern energy within 5 days of the event.

The 5h trend is impressive. Going from a complete wall to a nice gap that could allow amplification is nice. TBH I was ignoring this one but will be paying attention now on out.

You can't cliff jump if nobody is there.

Sleep lmao

I plan to hike Dolly Sods or Blackwater falls the 2nd of Jan. Does anyone know the best (aka most plowed) way to get into those areas? I have a 2011 Honda CRV which has good all wheel drive but low clearance (7in) so I probably shouldn't try driving it on 10 inches of fresh snow.

Euro brings us a small hit tonight

I’m down with running back January 3rd of last year. Sorta funny how that squall kicked off an active period too!

We may have different definitions of "teeing up a hit". The h5 is way too large and not amplified.

Cmon Ji think about it this way, we just gained over an inch of rain in one run!

People sleeping on the 240 hour CMC. Would be an absolute smackdown

Was gonna comment on it but damn its a crazy H5 look yet we lose thermals before the precip enters southern VA

I agree. I would definitely be more excited for this one if I was in Cvill or down where you are as it stands its far enough out to see a shift that ends up favoring us. The individual ens low pressures really just need a couple hundred mile shift and we'd be in business.

The issue isn't that the pattern isn't blocky as shown by this ridiculous 500mb map But instead that the southern shortwave which delivers our storm is just barely captured and amplified by the northern ULL. We are genuinely like 12 hours away from a complete nuclear capture scenario with the displaced ULL and the southern energy fully phasing instead of just helping it gain latitude. I mean just look at how close we get to greatness. Though arguably the best part about the Euro run is that even after this storm we are still in a great pattern. We lose the Atlantic a bit but still have a great EPO and PNA with an active southern stream. Would be a fun time and great to see the pattern reflected in the OPs.

Damn you just beat me too it. I was too busy looking at the 500mb and surface maps to guess how much we'd get. Tbh I expected a bit more with such a textbook look but the storm moves quick

As mentioned by other posters the time period after this particular storm signal look to be more promising but I really cant help but like this depiction for the 4th. We have a good amount of vorticity to our south, a block to our north, and surface low pressure across Georgia in a position to bring in both gulf and Atlantic moisture. Of course, as depicted the bowling ball to our north would suppress the storm but for a week out I really can't hate it. We just need to see the trends but as it currently stands it is more than trackable.