SnowenOutThere

Would be nice if @NorthArlington101 (or any other person who paid for model runs) could post the freezing rain/sleet accumulation maps

Way out to the 15th but the GFS is actually pretty close to a hit, so even if both Monday and next weekend fails we still have another shot.

Hey, did you know Prince died?

Its so close to a phase that could've brought it up the coast too but the NS kicks it instead.

If it was just a little bit further north it actually would be a pretty good run, has a better snow max but is just a bit too far south.

I support this being a thread but making one as the GFS is running wasn't the best timing.

Has it really? Looks like it may have been partying a little hard over the past couple days.

Its also significantly faster than 6z with the storm in general

Precip shield seems to be weakening on approach...

Southwest and low looks a little more powerful and the confluence is slightly further north (Connecticut vs New York City on 6z) at hour 105

You could even say the biggest 12z runs of the year

Well at the very least the front end thump part…

WAA doesn’t get shredded to hell and manages to hold together to us

At the very least going to be a solid hit on the level (or above) the 12z cmc

Between the gfs and the icon or the gfs and its previous run?

The icon seemed to tick a bit better for our region plus the gfs still looks decent.

Hey I care about this threat but I just don't have weatherbell.

Hey remember you’re still the person who willed us into this event so whatever happens falls on you

Confluence is over Rhode Island vs New Jersey while the Euro has it north east of Boston, still a good shift regardless.

Could you imagine the state of this place if this is the reality? I fear some of our posters may not make it past next week at this rate.

That said the GEFS are now up to a solid .4 areawide mean which isn't entirely terrible, and there are no real outliers giving 4+ inches to throw off the mean

Wonder if we really want this "event" to trend our way considering if it bombs out too far east we possibly get a more GFS type Jan 6th outcome

CMC is gonna be a hit, the confluence over the northeast is Eurolike

Adding onto @LP08 post about the confluence over the northeast, but when messaging @brooklynwx99 about why the GFS sheared out the storm on previous runs they mentioned how it was running into a wall of confluence, so naturally it would have a hard time holding itself together. I think our biggest concern as of now is actually getting less confluence over the northeast so it's able to have precip get to us, right now the concern is more suppression/shearing than cutting. So when watching future model runs I think one of the most important pieces to look at will be where the wall of confluence sets up over the northeast. Here are the runs of the GFS and EURO to make that point

I think it may just get suppressed, there is so much more confluence further southwest than the Euro.