SnowenOutThere
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Everything posted by SnowenOutThere
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Can't wait for the stuff over Ohio if it can make it to us
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The wraparound stuff should still be decent (if not better) than the 18z runs
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It gets rid of the sleet that has been plaguing NOVA at 12z Monday
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18z top 0z precip through hour 30
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Nam def will be south, may be not great for the northern crew which has been hugging it but still early in its run.
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NAM seems slightly south with the primary, but its extremely early in its run
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It actually shifted a bit north from 12z, it just cut off most of the storm then
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RAP (fwiw) seems wetter and has a wide swath of foot 12+
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This is pretty much the state of the storm right now. (@stormtracker if this needs to be moved to banter)
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I got you, give me a second to make a meme
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Coastal should be done by now
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The vort weakens more than the 12z run which probably explains why its both colder and worse with the coastal. Result is a smidge colder and an asshair drier (for around DC at least)
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GFS is out and running. No real change through hour 18 besides maybe a bit more confluence and a tinny bit stronger low
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When do you think we could have a good handle on the vort pass and backend snow situation? It seems that the models that are the best with the WAA for my area sorta miss with the backend and vise versa. Want to make an updated forecast for my friends and family but am waiting for more agreement on that last part, and thanks for the post!
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Since you’re giving out snowfall ranges for various places do you think the Ashburn/Reston area should be in a solid 6-10 range? Seems like at this point the WAA should get us well and if we’re lucky with the coastal we could her higher end amounts
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either way it still gets us to 7ish inches by the end of its run with at least 2-6 more with the coastal fluff so not even a bad run verbatim, but is a little worrying if it nudges any further north
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I know its the NAMs at range but should NOVA be worried about the weird dry slot it shows with the WAA?
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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
SnowenOutThere replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
As someone who is that age I don’t remember anything much before 2016 besides glimpses of storms. I vaguely remember the 2016 blizzard but wish I could recall more about it. The Monday system may be the first time I can truly remember getting 10+ inches of snow (ig Jan 2019 counts too but yk what I mean) -
Fwiw NAM 3k is slightly colder than the 12z upstairs
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Seems to have a more expansive dry slot which isn’t great
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At hour 60 the sleet line is ever so slightly south (from cutting through fx county to being just south)
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Hell of a way to get .1! As someone too young for the 2014 squall this was a first time thing. Should have a timelapse up later
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That was incredible! Thunder snow, watching the clouds come in, the progression from melted flakes to a snow globe, this may be one of my favorite winter events ever.
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Heard a rumble of thunder, sadly not snowing as the cell that produced it slid to my north. Reminds me a lot of summer
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Remember we only use 10-1 when it shows the most snow
