vortex95

CoastalWx "mad" b/c the SLGT stops just short of Weymouth! LOL.

Oct 1979 was an odd duck. Not sure of the left movement as a factor. Maybe more CT Valley localized SRH enhancement and pure dynamics. It was right at the triple point occlusion, almost a like light version of the 1925 Tri-State Tor when the supercell followed closely the sfc low. This also occurred in NC/SC on 3/28/1984. Supercell was closely associated w/ a 980 mb sfc low and produced 15 tors, 7 that were F4! Reanalysis fcst using hires models presented at the SNE conference in ORH some 20 years ago noted that nothing stood out as any real tor potential for the 10/3/1979 event. It was the only tor and supercell, and no other svr wx reports in SNE that day outside that one cell. They also did reanalysis of 6/9/1953, and of course that stood out no problem. The BDL tor did $250M in damages. Adjusted for inflation, that would be $1.1B today. That makes it the costliest tor in New England history. At the time, the BDL F4 was the third costliest U.S. tor on record w/ the $400M at #1 from the SPS F4 in April that year and #2 Xenia OH F5 in April 1974. ORH tor in 1953 adjusted for inflation would be $658M, but in the 1953, the $53M in damages was the costliest U.S. tor up to that time.

You mean "right-moving!"

July 10, 1989, virtually no sun in SNE after late morning from a thick high OVC. Didn't matter. BDL went from 68 to 86 no problem and a 10 deg DP rise into the 70s almost all on advection once the warm front passed. A kiddie Scott had no idea a spinner would occur in Brockton that day!

Scott shying away from his winter weenie passion?

Wow, great report. Were you there at home when it passed? Could you see the funnel? Aprox time?

Hence "CoastalWx!?"

Scott uses the TBOS FAA radar for local wind insights. The pride of Weymouth - having a radar! LOL.

Sun could be interesting. Ydy it acted more like a BDF and cool marine infested, but tdy not at all. BDF in a classic sense occurs when it is anticyclonic NW flow here w/ high heights/thickness, and the only cool air is very shallow. Not the case here at all. It is cyclonic flow aloft w/ falling heights and a decent vort/shortwave moving in Sun aftn. GFS/ECM show half-decent CAPE and w/ the cold 500 temps and dynamic support, could be good in some areas. Not honkin' svr, but I bet good enough for WxWiz! The front sagging just to S may actually help in this case. Also, cells dropping N to S? They tend to do well.

Yes, and ASOS is as well. Recall it was noted that whatever falls in the ASOS gauge and melts as LEQ, can't be adjusted? So the 37.9" at PVD in the Feb storm had only 1.78" LEQ. That seems high the 21:1 ratio. BOS is much worse. 17.1" and only .47" LEQ for that storm? PVD -5", ORH -3.5", BDL -2.5" CON -2". So the -7.5" at BOS does not fit. And we are talking the first 5 months of the year where you do not have higher local differences from convection. But the media doesn't care, they just take thing as face value and run w/ it.

WxWiz wants a repeat of this! https://www.weather.gov/aly/derecho1995

Sat looking good. WxWiz needs the the tstm "hit!" And then Scott "Ossipee" hailers moving N-S on Sun. Can't get rid of these cold 500 troughs rotating through and the blocking. If the 00z ECMWF is correct, after Sat, no sig heat or dew point (gin and) juice UFN for eastern sections.

Oh, and WxWiz will like this, there were likely several spinners in SE MA and RI for Gloria, in addition to the one confirmed in Billerica MA. Look at the PNS from WSO PVD issued 3 days after Gloria (the bulletin is cut/pasted as is - typos are real). TTAA00 KPVD 301506 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON MA 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 30 1985 THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF TORNADOS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE GLORIA IN THE AREA ON FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 27. 1. LOCAL POLICE IN SEEKONK MA REPORTED A TORNADO HAVING OCCURRED AT PINE STREET ON THE REHOBOTH-SEEKONK MA LINE AT APPROXIMATELY 230 PM EDT. 2. A CHARLES CINTOLO IN GLOUCESTER RI REPORTED A TORNADO IN THAT AREA. 3. REPORTER FROM THE PROVIDENCE JOURNAL STATED THAT SHE RECEIVED TWO REPORTS OF TORNADOS: A. NEAR THE BURLINGAME STATE FOREST IN CHARLESTOWN RI. B. NEAR A GOLF COURSE IN W. KINGSTOWN RI. OUTSIDE THE AREA TWEKSBURY MA REPORTED A TORNADO WITNESSED BY STATE POLICE. SUMMARIZING: IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT ALONG WITH HURRICANCE GLORIA, THERE WERE TORNADOS IN THE AREA. FORTUNATELY THEY DID NOT ADD SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE DAMAGE ALREADY DONE BY GLORIA. THERE WERE NO LIVES LOST: NO BUILDINGS BLOWN APART, ETC TO WARRANT NOT PERSONALLY INVESTIGATING THESE REPORTS. THEY WILL BE RECORDED AS HAVING OCCURED IN OUR LOCAL STORM REPORTS AND STATION CLIMATOLOGICAL HISTORY BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY WILL SERVE AS A REMINDER IN FUTURE HURRICANE EVENTS THAT TORNADOS CAN OCCUR WITH HURICANES. INCIDENTALLY) THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAD A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM 10AM EDT TO 6PM EDT FRIDAY SEPT. 1985. RAMELLA So why did they not record these are tornadoes (they are not in NCEI Storm Data - even though it says they were recorded). Probably the same reason as Bob, magnitude of HU event/wind damage overshadowed individual spinner reports. Of course, this would not happen today. Once the NWS MAR occurred in the mid-late 90s, wx verification and outreach greatly expanded, and so did what got logged in Storm Data. As added bonus, here is the LSR from WSO BDR for the July 10, 1989 spinner event. WxWiz is . I recall this report vividly. What caught my eye the most was 4.4" of rain in 1/2 hr! I believe it b/c it was a MONSTA HP beast. The sky darkened black as night for this storm. WOUS00 KBDR 111200 STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BRIDGEPORT CT 740 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 1989 LOCAL STORM REPORT FOR MONDAY JUL 10 1989 TIME COUNTY TOWN EVENT 519 PM EDT NEW HAVEN OXFORD 11/2 INCH HAIL 524 PM EDT NEW HAVEN NEAR WOODBURY 1 INCH HAIL 542 PM EDT NEW HAVEN NEW HAVEN GUST 70 KNOTS BY COAST GUARD 605 PM EDT NEW HAVEN OXFORD 4.4 INCHES RAIN 1/2 HR. 605 PM EDT NEW HAVEN HAMDEN POSSIBLE TORNADO EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO HOUSES BUSINESSES NUMEROUS INJURES. 541 PM EDT MIDDLESEX MIDDLETOWN TREES DOWN SMALL HOUSE DAMAGE 605 PM EDT NEW HAVEN NEW HAVEN EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO MANY HOUSES. THOUSANDS OF TREES DOWN. COUNTY 100,000 WITHOUT POWER. MANY INJURIES. POSSIBLE TORNADOS BY NEW HAVEN POLICE. END/FOOSE

Bob tracking farther E made all the difference, If you were in SE MA and CC, it was the BIG BLOW. You can't expect too much when an accelerating HU passes E of you location at this latitude if you are looking for wind. R++ OTOH? However sometimes wild turkey surprise occurs. Edna in Sep 1954 BOS G88KT, it highest gust on record (beat G87KT from Carol 10 days earlier), and it was out of the NW as Edna passed over CC. Edna was going ET rather quickly and I'd bet good $$ it was a sting jet over SNE. If you look at HU Fiona's epic transition S of NS in Sep 2022, that's what likely happened to Edna. Bob's landfall at BID was 90 kt, which is considerably above Gloria's (75 kt) and Belle's (65 kt) landfalls -- the strongest since Donna in 1960, so don't dis Bob! NWS BOX told me not long after Bob, they had a number of reports of "Scott spinners" on CC, but due to the extent of the straight-line wind damage and resources, they could not investigate those reports. This was 2 years before the WSR-88D was installed, which now makes it much easier to pin down spinner reports and check specific areas, never mind cameras everywhere. So the next HU that makes landfall in SNE, we'll likely see a number of spinners.

I say we rebrand MD 20/20 for CoastalWx and call it "MAN SNOW!"

This is for 276 hr. One should not be using 2m temps from any model that far out as they are subject to large errors that do not have to do anything w/ the forecast limitations of beyond day 6-7, but the fact 2m temps are not MOS adjusted/calibrated.

The "wheel of misfortune" cut off still trying ruin it for Scott!

"Scott Spinner" in Upstate NY on 5/29 from the "cold" storm here on 5/30.

"A real-time parallel feed of RRFS and REFS will be available on or about July 7, 2026, on NOMADS for both NCEP Web services and NOAAPORT" SCN26-048-Updated_RRFS_and_REFS_Implementation.aaa.pdf

"A real-time parallel feed of RRFS and REFS will be available on or about July 7, 2026, on NOMADS for both NCEP Web services and NOAAPORT." SCN26-048-Updated_RRFS_and_REFS_Implementation.aaa.pdf

PVA? I haven't heard that term used in some time. Back in the day, it was DA BOMB in wx talk! Not saying it is not important, but just looking at how the lingo has evolved. Now it seems we use UVV, frontogenesis, deformation, and WAA/CAA more for the S+ weenie terms!

It so easy to be misled, even for learned mets. I would think there is better way to convey temps in the long range. The colors CPC uses are ok, but you go on other sites, and it has been skewed towards warm colors even for cool temps in recent years. It used to be very hot was dark red, but due to the shift up, you now get brownish-red and white! At the same, colors used for cooler temps like the 50s and 60s, are no longer yellow or green, they are shades of orange. This skews perception big time thinking it is "hotter" overall. It's no different that what you see in some TV markets (OKC is one) where they jack up radar reflectivity levels so tstms look "meaner" than for conventional color tables have been used for decades. This has real impacts. I recall during the Iceland volcanic eruption in 2010 that shut down airspace for weeks across the NATL, forecast ash plumes from they HYSPLIT model and others, some would chose these eye-catching bright colors for ash levels/concentration, and you look at it thinking the entire NATL was covered in dense ash! The economic impact here alone can be be understated. it should be standardized colors across all platforms for color tables used so you are comparing graphics apples to apples. The avg person has trouble enough w/ interpreting or understanding wx, so don't make it any more complex that it needs to be!

Yes but based on what? 500 mb heights? Do they even factor in marine influences? And objectively, given the surface pattern in this case, it looks more like near normal or leaning below. You have to wonder how much manual adjustment is made, or is it just straight model output averages like the NBM. The public and even some mets don't see these outlooks as probability. They often see the warm color, and think temps will be above avg this period. I've even seen some clueless OCMs state when there is big cold probability bulls-eye present, "the polar vortex will be here!"

One thing I notice a lot is the CPC seems to overdo sfc temp anomalies. They see above avg 500 mb heights and just run w/ that. Well, we don't live at 18,000 ft. The 6-10 day outlook looks too warm for much of the E. The 500 ridge axis stays W of the Appalachians, so that promotes frontal passages often in NW flow, strong sfc highs either N/NW or over the area, and frequent sea breezes or synoptic onshore flow. Look at the GFSX MOS from Sunday on, that's below avg temps eastern sections of New England and near avg for western/inland sections at best.