vortex95

Hail falling w/o any rain is quite rare in New England, and the East Coast for that matter, owning to the more moist climate and lack of an EML the vast majority of the time.

Incoming for Scott?

This happens a lot in the Plains w/ LP supercells as the hail is thrown downwind of the storm. It also happens at times in the Desert SW when the tstm is all virga but the hail makes it to the ground!

Nashua actually can be a great area for tstms. In the very active year and hot summer of 1988, Nashua had 15 thunder days in July, and 43 total for the year. Those are numbers near the absolute max, at least for southern NH into central/eastern MA!

Yes, I mentioned "embedded convective elements."

Sounds like a CoastalWx attitude!

Virga plume ahead of the upper low w/ embedded convective elements. A little odd for an upper low dropping from the N. Nice spiral in Quebec w/ decent tstms. Maybe Scott can get some rumblers in Ossipee!?!

Looking at KBED records that start in 1890 I got from a local wx company I worked for in the late 1980s and early 90s, and then using my own records and another's from Woburn (4 mi ENE), only 3 times has measurable snow occurred in May - 1917, 1977, and 2002. 6 other times a trace. 1917 0.3", 1977 9.5", and 2002 0.2" Weren't there flakes in the air in SNE, including ern MA, in early May 2020? This was after I moved to the DC area.

HRRR clearly showed at least ern CT was going to have good wind. NBM issue? NBM tends to smooth things out a lot, so it may not handle the more wild/high-end/atypical events?

That's what I thought. This late in the season, it is typically either rain or snow. Not that sleet doesn't occur, but typically not in significant amounts or for an extended period. Temps aloft steadily cooled in NNE well as the upper level low moved in, so there should have been no funny warm layers, esp. in a convectively unstable column. Any/all mix should have gone to straight snow in the mountains.

Improper wording on my part. It should say, "most of the time" not "always." If you go back months, you'll see the bias I am talking about. Look at his posts about Europe heat in the last few weeks. Why would an OCM that should be focusing on wx local to their DMA or at least the U.S. talk about hot wx/heat domes in Europe? Could it be that there was no sig heat in the U.S. at the same time, so one has to go find it elsewhere on the globe b/c that the "in" thing to hype b/c of global warming? What gets the most clicks/likes and promotes gloom and doom? These tendencies and biases are not hard to spot. All I am saying as a scientist, one need to avoid bias, hype, and report on things w/ balance and reason. When you are a public figure to millions, a responsibility comes w/ that. But you see far too many fall into hype and over-the-top/cheesy statements and graphics just to grab attention and proper perspective, reason, and facts be damned.

You'll find far more posts about heat and hot wx than cool/cold wx. Look at the mean/average.

The fact he is a well-known meteorologist is irrelevant. One being well-known doesn't make one right/better or unbiased. He is at WFLA in Tampa now and has been for at least a year. Take a look at his social media posts. They are over-the-top hype/clickbait, no contest. Always hyping every time it gets hot only, every ridge of high pressure is heat dome, and every anomaly is proof of climate change. Here is an example. https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2056346965814726858 Having animated flames is hype and unnecessary. And the graphic only focuses on the heat when a large area of cool temps is present and replaces the heat in short order. That is not only hype, it is reporting bias. One should report on *everything*, not just cherry-pick certain types of wx that fit a particular narrative.

I was surprised MWN mixed w/ IP the entire event. Soundings by 06z showed it cold enough from the summit and above, yet it stayed mix. So probably funny warm layer still present.

Scott's mad it was not directly over GHG!

Any accumulation?

This guy is a super hype-master. Goes off the deep end w/ "heat dome" all the time. Every ridge of high pressure is a heat dome even if there are no sig warm anomalies present. Can't find big heat in North America? He goes to Europe w/ hot wx/heat dome hype, as if it having hot wx and anomalies somewhere on the globe at any given time is unusual?

https://dd.meteo.gc.ca/doc/genots/2026/05/25/NOCN03_CWAO_251940___18749 NEW VERSION OF THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (GDPS) OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA (MSC) ON TUESDAY, MAY 26, 2026, STARTING WITH THE 12 UTC RUN, THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE'S GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (GDPS) WILL BE UPDATED TO VERSION 10.0.0, SPECTRALLY NUDGED BY THE GEML (GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL EMULATOR) ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE-BASED MODEL. SOME OF THE KEY ENHANCEMENTS TO THE GDPS IN VERSION 10.0.0 ARE: - SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN FORECAST ACCURACY OF GDPS 10.0.0 COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL GDPS 9.1.0 - IMPROVEMENTS ACHIEVED THROUGH LARGE-SCALE SPECTRAL NUDGING TOWARD AI-BASED GEML FORECASTS - ROBUST AND STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT GAINS IN THE FREE ATMOSPHERE, PARTICULARLY IN THE MID- AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE - SIGNIFICANT GAINS BETWEEN DAYS 3 AND 10: MORE MODEST IMPROVEMENTS DURING THE FIRST 2-3 FORECAST - IMPROVED PREDICTED TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS FOR DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE INNOVATIONS AND PERFORMANCE THAT ARE ACHIEVED THROUGH THIS IMPLEMENTATION, PLEASE CONSULT THE SECTION ENTITLED: DATA AND PRODUCTS OF THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM, WITHIN THE MSC OPEN DATA PAGE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK (IN LOWER CASE): HTTPS://ECCC-MSC.GITHUB.IO/OPEN-DATA/MSC-DATA/NWP_GDPS/ README_GDPS_EN/ PLEASE ADDRESS ANY QUESTIONS CONCERNING THIS IMPLEMENTATION TO (IN LOWER CASE): F.PRODUCTION-INFO.F(AT)EC.GC.CA SIEWE ADM-MSC / SMA-SMC OTTAWA

Good! They can get a better snowfall measurement! Maybe snow will not be so wet here. Those are cold temps. Well, GFS now has 850 temps as low as -5 C across NNE so there you go! W/ such cold temps at 6000 ft, you have to think that down to 2000 ft in NNE could do very well w/ super wet glop.

Also posted on the thread just made for this upcoming storm. Interesting what the 12z HRRR shows. It has a very high QPF max of 5.77" over SW ME. Other models do not show this, but sfc low is a tight SUCKA and I wonder about mesoscale factors. SPC has general tstms outlooked and convection stirs things up better aloft. This results in stronger downdrafts to mix down the cold air aloft better. 850 and 925 mb temps are cold enough by 12z in this area and that kind of pcpn intensity? The ante is very high here! Can you imagine on the coast w/ super paste and G50kt? I'd love to be at Hampton Beach Sat AM! The reason the HRRR shows this big pcpn max in SW ME is b/c the area is at the pivot point of the N side of the comma head, so they cash in w/ a heavy pcpn area nearly stationary in a relative sense. Such a scenario is not unreasonable and the global models would not pick up on something like this. So we may have two pcpn maxes, one over the White Mtns and another coastal ME/NH. Look at the HRRR sim radar late this eve/very early Sat over NH/VT, TRW+ FQT LTGICCG surprise before the S+??? This is about as good as it gets for the uncertainty factor for big S+ and "PHUN 'N GAMES!" Scott should be impressed! Could be a truly exceptional event. Big snowfall like this so late (higher and lower elevations)? You have to go back to the 19th century (1816 and 1842 in June) for anything later. MWN had 24.9" in the May 25-26, 1967 event and they could exceed that for the May single storm record.

Interesting what the 12z HRRR shows. It has a very high QPF max of 5.77" over SW ME. Other models do not show this, but sfc low is a tight SUCKA and I wonder about mesoscale factors. SPC has general tstms outlooked and convection stirs things up better aloft. This results in stronger downdrafts to mix down the cold air aloft better. 850 and 925 mb temps are cold enough by 12z in this area and that kind of pcpn intensity? The ante is very high here! Can you imagine on the coast w/ super paste and G50kt? I'd love to be at Hampton Beach Sat AM! The reason the HRRR shows this big pcpn max in SW ME is b/c the area is at the pivot point of the N side of the comma head, so they cash in w/ a heavy pcpn area nearly stationary in a relative sense. Such a scenario is not unreasonable and the global models would not pick up on something like this. So we may have two pcpn maxes, one over the White Mtns and another coastal ME/NH. Look at the HRRR sim radar late this eve/very early Sat over NH/VT, TRW+ FQT LTGICCG surprise before the S+??? This is about as good as it gets for the uncertainty factor for big S+ and "PHUN 'N GAMES!" Scott should be impressed! Could be a truly exceptional event. Big snowfall like this so late (higher and lower elevations)? You have to go back to the 19th century (1816 and 1842 in June) for anything later. MWN had 24.9" in the May 25-26, 1967 event and they could exceed that for the May single storm record.

Shouldn't we have a separate thread for this upcoming storm now? It certainly warrants one IMHO! Give the super snow weenies on this board, I expect at least one to travel to the mountains of ME/NH just to experience a truly rare event. We need in situ snowfall obs as well!

PT time??? LOL. I recall how into you got w/ the Gulf Coast S+ last year. You said something like, "this is some SERIOUS SH**!!!""

One thing that seems apparent as we get closer to the Fri-Sat event. Models are ever so slightly trending colder and deeper w/ the sfc low. We now have 1000-500 thk bottoming out very close to 534 NH/VT/MA and -1 C at 925 extended over parts of MA/CT/RI around 12z Sat on the GFS. And now the 18z GFS and ECMWF suggest slight accumulation in n-ctnrl MA. Of course precip intensity is an issue in SNE, but maybe not for far NE MA (18z ECMWF). Sfc low now peaks at intensity 999 mb just E of BOS and as noted, significant winds ME coast to Cape Cod. G50 kt psbl according to the HRRR. Sustained 40 kt fcst just offshore from PWM. I would not be surprised if there are isolated embedded tstms. Also, model ptype does not show this, but what about IP? Such cold 925 temps, a mix w/ IP into SNE is certainly psbl. So something to be reckoned w/ and the "surprise" factor is quite high in this case (i.e. snowfall in areas that do not expect it). No, Scott, it won't be a Dec 9, 2005 "wild turkey surprise!" LOL. 00z HRRR showing max of 27" at MWN. Why not? They had 24.9" in the May 25-26, 1967 event. QPF supports it. EDIT: Just saw the NAM. It may not be so far out-to-lunch here, maybe right for the wrong reason, but as I said above the "surprise" factor here is very high IMHO given the borderline temps and strong dynamics.