vortex95

More is not always better. Too many models as it is, so this is good "cleaning house." They were supposed to stop the HWRF and HMON before last hurricane season, but haven't. HAFS has proven itself big time, so just move on. As I have said, having too many models that have less skill overall hang around just allows hype-masters to find the ONE model that shows "what they want to see," and run w/ that.

30 days hath September, April, June, and November!

X post is hype for attention. And bandwagon/sample size logical fallacies -- "nobody I have connected with in the community wants this to happen." So this person's connections are all encompassing and represent the *entire* wx community? That's pretty narrow-minded and arrogant. And who exactly is saying they don't like the RRFS? Vague proclamations are a red flag. This reminded me of last year when the DoD was going to stop the data dissemination of the 3 legacy DMSP polar orbiter satellite, and the TC community was up in arms b/c of the loss of the microwave data, acting like this would cripple TC forecasting. Well, there are other satellite like this other countires have we have access to, and the DoD had already launched the first in a set of replacement satellites for this legacy batch. More and more, ppl post stuff for mere engagement bait, looking for the 15 microseconds of fame. And the flip side, as if 12km NAM is great? It hasn't been tweaked in 10+ years and is often useless after 36 hr. The 3km NAM issues w/ it overdoing its QPF, esp. orographics, do we need that still? Ppl who don't understand models use this 3 km NAM flaw and run w/ it as if 50" snowfalls in SNE will happen! Getting rid of NAM and it derivatives is a good thing. These days ppl will latch onto any change and act like it is end of days. They prey on the human basic instinct to fear change. Not all change is bad by default, and sometimes you have to move on for things to advance. Yes, the RRFS has its share of issues (SPC noted it has problems w/ the BL for convection), but what model does not have it share of issues? And as we get higher and higher resolution for models and try to directly simulate directly atmospheric process, rather than emulate, the challenge here is not linear. RRFS been in test and evaluation mode for some time, and available for all to see, so it not just like cold turkey, The HRRR will be run in tandem likely for some time (look at how long the NAM has stuck around).

Captain obvious strikes again! LOL.

Your lawn will like it!

If it is not 1/4SM VV001 +SNFZFG, Scott be like "MEH!"

"Worse after brief improvement" from the article. Yes, slight up and downs week-to-week. Why is this news? It is always oscillating like this. How is that any different than when it is wet and then "less wet" for a period? Taking about it constantly does not make it physically any worse of better, but they don't care. Anything to hype the negative. Today is the 12th day in a row w/ measurable precip in New England. 12z ECMWF now showing up to 3.5" for the upcoming slow-moving storm. All other global models show widespread 1-2" across the region. The point is taking snapshot week-to-week is excessive in this case. It's not like w/ are baking day after day w/ full sun and high evaporation rates.

I still think you should be more than happy Weymouth got two 20"+ "white gold" events in one season this past winter. I bet that has not happened more than 10x in last 60-70 years in the immediate area. Let me put it this way, nothing even remotely close like this happened in the 80s. Scott used to get mad as a kid when he expected 4-8" fcst by WBZ on the "backlash" and he'd wake up next morning to sunny conditions! "I WANTED NO 'SKEWL' !!!" I had my share. I recall on NOAA Wx Radio, NWS BOS would say "the storm failed to develop." This was a fcst like 24 hr out. Storms don't just "fail" like that in such short range. It was the stupid LFM model turning flat waves into 980 mb S+ events! It had so many problems w/ convective feedback. The NGM out by 1985 largely took care of his problem, but Scott still called it the "NO GOOD MODEL!"

Well, is this any different that CoastalWx having a PT for "MASSIVE DENDRITES" when "WE SNOW?" It will be 3/4S-, and we will get "RIPPING!"

Or 6/1/2011. Even when a spinner occur in Weymouth a few years ago, Scott was unimpressed! "If I do not SEE it, doesn't COUNT!" LOL.

Use 2m temps w/ caution, esp. in the longer ranges. They do not have MOS incorporated, so often run much too warm. I recall the GFS at times when a heat wave is fcst, showing BOS max of 110 on days 8-10. And look at the GFSX MOS for BOS, 70-75 Sun-Mon.

In this case, Templeton got the best storm of the day, and its intensity max right over the area, and then weakened. When you are not expecting it, and the isolated happens to be in your backyard, of course you are going to be elated! Also, early season convection after a long winter always gets more notice.

See CoastalWx? Someone who appreciates the little things in wx. I never get sick of close CGs and wicked thund-AH! And MRGL svr was not fcst today.

Stop downplaying convection! There is more to wx than just SPLUS!

The last real multi-year drought in the Northeast was in the 1960s. Every time we get dry for like 6 months, it all comes crashing back wet to make up the difference. The presence of drought itself somehow have morphed into "not supposed to happen" or "it is unusual." Really? 10-15% of the CONUS in in drought on avg at any one time. This is normal. And by default, drought means lack of rain to the MSM. No, it doesn't. Socioeconomic drought is due to poor land/water management or infrastructure not keeping up w/ the water demand in a region.

The drought angle has become a racket IMHO. It allows $$ to flow/be available b/c there is an "emergency" which open things up to graft/corruption. Having problems, real or invented, are profitable, and that one reason why we have so much hype and nonsense. The word "drought" in itself has become a pejorative more than it should. It's a somewhat similar word "climate." Hear that word and ppl freak or think "bad. "Drought" which has some bad by definition, but "climate" is a neutral word in this sense, but the media and politicians have turned into into a fear-instilling word. Look at this nonsense in Washington state. This blog entry lays out all the facts about how it is definitely *not* drought emergency status. Yet the the powers that be declare one, and their reason is b/c snowpack is only 50% of normal Yet all other factors that go into drought states indicate no issues at all. https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2026/05/the-is-no-drought-emergency-in.html And the U.S. Drought Monitor, which factors in everything (there are 4 types of drought), not even half the state is actually in a drought, and it is only largely moderate status. It like so much these days, throttled to the max. Use the most superlative wording by default. No scaling or perspective. It's not an "alert," it is an "emergency" by default. There are no severe, heavy, or disastrous/disasters event/damage, it's all "catastrophic."

The best was 2011-12. Get the big snowstorm end of Oct, and then next to nothing and a torch for the winter! Scott was beside himself! 1979-80 was like this as well.

You do realize that since April 30, New England has had measurable pcpn every day. Not a lot, but it's not bone dry. More stuff today. Perhaps a NZW TRW?

CoastalWx is the absolute king of post #'s on this group, and he is among the most vocal causal complainers, never mind one-liners when he is weenie'ing out (e.g. WE SNOW), and we have coined "ACATT," so why not? Point reference where all other weenies are rated! After working w/ him for more than 10 years and seeing him in action as a weenie, he lives for jabs and debate! My favorite line from him was pointing out caveats to an upcoming snowstorm, and he would always go, "We'll see!" Reassuring confirmation bias to make himself feel better and hoping the snow would turn as out as he wanted (wished) it!

Taking lessons from CoastalWx? We do need the rain!

"It stinks and it sucks!" or "when you stink, you stink!" -- BOS sports quote from the late 80s!

In other news, Scott sees this, and First I have heard of this (new Kocin snowstorm book). Can anyone confirm?

26 BML.

Even though the overall large-scale pattern is not favorable for significant severe weather currently, that does not mean locally, there can't be nasty events, likeSW MS yesterday. A single supercell produced multiple or one long-tracked intense tornado. Damage surveys are ongoing, but it appears EF3 damage at least. | Radar loop here: https://x.com/wxkobold/status/2052440176245289471 Look at the SPC storm reports for 5/6. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/260506_rpts.html Very limited in coverage overall, which makes sense given the larger-scale conditions not good. The supercell latched onto and rode W-E along a low-level boundary, which is *everything* for "Scott spinners!" A few days ago, this occurred in FL. You don't even need to look at the velocity loop on the right, the base reflectively loop on the left clearly shows little "eddies" along the boundary! https://x.com/wxkobold/status/2051799555427955015