MN Transplant
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Everything posted by MN Transplant
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I am absolutely looking at it. I hadn't really been paying attention to it, but that 850 jet straight from the north through NE/KS/OK is impressive.
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It was absolutely puking snow at like 4am, which is another reason why you may not remember it.
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Not perfect matches, obviously, but that negative tilt over the southern plains to a bowling ball over DC is a good match for Jan. 2011 commuteaggedon.
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Yeah, I just didn't want to see a big move to the GFS solution. I'd take the Euro.
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Yeah, we probably lose the column at 4z or 5z. Not a lot of difference in freezing lines between surface, 925, 850, and 700 is not a problem, so if there is a mix, it would be a short period.
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500 low goes over us, rather than over Cleveland, so that's probably good.
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Focusing on the positive, here is the 6 hr precip panel and the DC-area sounding for 00z Monday. Cleanly snow to that point and perhaps a bit after.
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I guess I'm not seeing what you are seeing flipping back and forth between runs. If I were placing the 500 low I'd be inching it even a bit further west from 06z, at least by the time it gets to Cleveland. The big "win" on the 12z run, however, is that the GFS did juice up the front end. This is all about what we can get before the screaming 850 jet (85kts!) gets us by 00z Monday.
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The end result is pretty similar. Get a 3-5" front end thump (more W) and then it is likely over along 95. That's just what this storm is.
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I'm not seeing the optimism. 850 low is already headed NE from Memphis. That is a bad look for us.
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GFS looks pretty similar to 06z through 81.
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Almost better, less rain.
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I think we all need to be realistic about the situation post-storm also. It doesn't seem to matter which model, but the cold air does not rush in quickly behind this storm. If it does snow along 95, it is going to drip-drip-drip on Monday. This is a storm where we enjoy the front end and then move on to looking for the next one.
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ICON looks ok. 500 low effectively tracks over DC.
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Ah, crap. That's right. We really want to avoid this:
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Where was the 500mb low passage on the 06z Euro? We desperately need to keep that south of us like the 00z Euro and 06z ICON have. The GFS/CMC solutions are bummers.
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It isn't exactly like the event has disappeared. It is still an impressive storm, even if many of us are going to see snow-to-rain.
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You are super wrong about the current forecast models, but you do have some support on the analog side. There are groups out there that are experimenting with machine learning using a trained data set (the analogs). It’ll be interesting to see how that works out.
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Temp is near 50 in La Plata during the low passage.
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Persistance!
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Predicting the HH GFS. We are in full weenie mode now.
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28 at 2pm. Below freezing looks like a lock, below 30 is very much still possible.
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977 lol
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They got there in slightly different ways, but closed low in Mississippi with a near neutral tilt on both the GFS and Euro at 126.
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Amazing how positively tilted it is. Digs a bit further south than the GFS.
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