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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    Sleet requires a deeper cold layer so the droplets refreeze before hitting the ground. This is a perfect freezing rain scenario with the cold temps right at the surface.
  2. MN Transplant
    We need to sweep that northern vort through so that there is spacing for the southern vort to climb.
  3. MN Transplant
    Gotta save it for the Harbaugh news tomorrow.
  4. MN Transplant
    Yes, but this one has a lot working against it in the DC area. One is that it drops an inch of rain prior to going near freezing, so the surfaces won’t be cold/dry to start with. And a big deal is that this is happening mid-day, so even with the clouds we are going to be fighting solar radiation.
  5. MN Transplant
    Colder, but still a non-event for DC. Light precip at 31 isn’t going to do anything. Northern MD might have some interesting times.
  6. MN Transplant
    Minneapolis
  7. MN Transplant
    NAM nest going down with the ship on tomorrow’s high. Mid-30s.
  8. MN Transplant
    HRRR is still near 50. Makes no damn sense.
  9. MN Transplant
    I know all eyes are on the precipitation, but I can’t get over what the 3km NAM is trying to do tomorrow. It holds us all near freezing all day, while the Euro, GFS, and HRRR all take us to the upper 40s.
  10. MN Transplant
    I don’t actually know why they use that terminology. SREF is ensemble-based, so it uses slightly different initial conditions to see how robust the solutions are to model/observation error. It is an older system so they aren’t as advanced as other methods now.
  11. MN Transplant
    2 of the 20 some members do give us snow, so, there’s a chance!
  12. MN Transplant
  13. MN Transplant
    7am Friday DC temps: 18z GFS: 29 18z Euro: 56
  14. MN Transplant
    @mattie g USMNT game-time temp on Wednesday looks like it will be low single digits. I don't know who approved soccer in Minnesota in February.
  15. MN Transplant
    Wednesday afternoon - near freezing on the NAM nest, near 50 on the Euro.
  16. MN Transplant
    One interesting difference between the 12z NAM/GFS and 06z Euro is the 00z Friday temps. Mid-40s from the American guidance while mid-50s from the Europeans.
  17. MN Transplant
    The problem is, we are 4 days away and it isn't even close on any of the models. Most have rain, but the GFS pushes the cold air at the surface much more vigorously. This is a later afternoon Friday sounding from the GFS, which is the coldest of the models. It isn't going to snow.
  18. MN Transplant
    Looks like the climo stations will end up in the -2 to -3 range for January. That is somewhat muted because of the extremely high temps of Jan 1&2.
  19. MN Transplant
    Falls Church, VA 1/3/22 - 8.8" 1/7/22 - 2.8" 1/16/22 - 2.8” 1/28/22 - 1.2" Total: 15.6” (20" is roughly climo)
  20. MN Transplant
    Ended up with 1.2” on 0.14” precip. So, the temps didn’t hurt as much as the dud precip totals. It will be interesting to see the final totals for the three places that I had targeted (however imaginary) as a chase: Worchester, Riverhead (eastern LI), and Atlantic City. All of them are looking pretty good, especially LI.
  21. MN Transplant
    Nothing falling in Falls Church. Looks like 0.5” but I’ll do a real measurement later. Yet again we find out that temps don’t matter if rates are good, but if the snow is light, temps are crucial.
  22. MN Transplant
    Flake size is terrible and it is still above freezing.
  23. MN Transplant
    Now the ground is getting white. 34.0
  24. MN Transplant
    Good thing we have a few more days before the event! 36.2. Snowflakes aren't melting as fast.
  25. MN Transplant
    So, over 6 hours. 38.4 here. Occasional snowflakes wafting down.
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