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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    First HRRR run (at 48, I know), shows the freezing line entering Garrett Co at 12z Friday. 57 in DC at the time.
  2. MN Transplant
    Yes! It may be sacrilege to say, but chili is ruined by beans.
  3. MN Transplant
    The Feb obs thread has it. It was chilly, and the numbers would be more impressive if you took out Jan 1-2 which were way above normal.
  4. MN Transplant
    Seems like there should be a thread, at least for our northern folks.
  5. MN Transplant
    The 3km NAM flipped to a mid-40s high today with the 06z run.
  6. MN Transplant
    Sleet requires a deeper cold layer so the droplets refreeze before hitting the ground. This is a perfect freezing rain scenario with the cold temps right at the surface.
  7. MN Transplant
    We need to sweep that northern vort through so that there is spacing for the southern vort to climb.
  8. MN Transplant
    Gotta save it for the Harbaugh news tomorrow.
  9. MN Transplant
    Yes, but this one has a lot working against it in the DC area. One is that it drops an inch of rain prior to going near freezing, so the surfaces won’t be cold/dry to start with. And a big deal is that this is happening mid-day, so even with the clouds we are going to be fighting solar radiation.
  10. MN Transplant
    Colder, but still a non-event for DC. Light precip at 31 isn’t going to do anything. Northern MD might have some interesting times.
  11. MN Transplant
    Minneapolis
  12. MN Transplant
    NAM nest going down with the ship on tomorrow’s high. Mid-30s.
  13. MN Transplant
    HRRR is still near 50. Makes no damn sense.
  14. MN Transplant
    I know all eyes are on the precipitation, but I can’t get over what the 3km NAM is trying to do tomorrow. It holds us all near freezing all day, while the Euro, GFS, and HRRR all take us to the upper 40s.
  15. MN Transplant
    I don’t actually know why they use that terminology. SREF is ensemble-based, so it uses slightly different initial conditions to see how robust the solutions are to model/observation error. It is an older system so they aren’t as advanced as other methods now.
  16. MN Transplant
    2 of the 20 some members do give us snow, so, there’s a chance!
  17. MN Transplant
  18. MN Transplant
    7am Friday DC temps: 18z GFS: 29 18z Euro: 56
  19. MN Transplant
    @mattie g USMNT game-time temp on Wednesday looks like it will be low single digits. I don't know who approved soccer in Minnesota in February.
  20. MN Transplant
    Wednesday afternoon - near freezing on the NAM nest, near 50 on the Euro.
  21. MN Transplant
    One interesting difference between the 12z NAM/GFS and 06z Euro is the 00z Friday temps. Mid-40s from the American guidance while mid-50s from the Europeans.
  22. MN Transplant
    The problem is, we are 4 days away and it isn't even close on any of the models. Most have rain, but the GFS pushes the cold air at the surface much more vigorously. This is a later afternoon Friday sounding from the GFS, which is the coldest of the models. It isn't going to snow.
  23. MN Transplant
    Looks like the climo stations will end up in the -2 to -3 range for January. That is somewhat muted because of the extremely high temps of Jan 1&2.
  24. MN Transplant
    Falls Church, VA 1/3/22 - 8.8" 1/7/22 - 2.8" 1/16/22 - 2.8” 1/28/22 - 1.2" Total: 15.6” (20" is roughly climo)
  25. MN Transplant
    Ended up with 1.2” on 0.14” precip. So, the temps didn’t hurt as much as the dud precip totals. It will be interesting to see the final totals for the three places that I had targeted (however imaginary) as a chase: Worchester, Riverhead (eastern LI), and Atlantic City. All of them are looking pretty good, especially LI.
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