There is a realistic fail mode here that has been hinted at by some models where there are good storms up in PA where the dynamics are solid and down in southern VA and NC where the instability is better.
Paying attention to the DPs on the HRRR vs NAM. HRRR is much drier and the coverage is unimpressive. Is that a bias in convective scenarios this year? I haven’t been paying attention.
I remember June 2006 as multiple rounds of MCS-like storms. Is my memory failing me? Whenever I see a N/S oriented line that start to train, I immediately think of TD Lee.
With the pattern next week, we are likely looking at a negative May and June departure. Very refreshing. Hopefully we can keep that rolling and have a 2004-like summer.