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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    71.4. Pretty cool how the winds died after the rain set up an inversion, and now they are ever so slightly increasing as the surface warms and mixes the boundary layer.
  2. MN Transplant
    Winds already kicking up. Gust to 44 at IAD.
  3. MN Transplant
    Moving this over here. The 18z NAM is more aggressive on the potential for severe due to the low-level moisture. Check out the difference between 12z and 18z.
  4. MN Transplant
    LWX mentioned in the discussion that there would be a better chance of convection to the east where the moisture hadn't been removed by the later morning dry line.
  5. MN Transplant
    Another twist on the new 18z NAM Nest. Winds maybe not as impressive, but the NAM is throwing out UH signals for some cells that pop up E of 95.
  6. MN Transplant
    Same as all the other weather events. We celebrate snowstorms even though they often result in some fatalities (crashes, heart attacks, etc.). Can't do anything about it, so might as well follow interesting weather. I thoroughly enjoyed March 2018's windstorm. This isn't in the same ballpark, but we haven't had anything to track forever.
  7. MN Transplant
    True, but I wonder if SW vs W/NW really matters much. The Isabel-like SE winds, absolutely.
  8. MN Transplant
    Interesting, now the 18z HRRR has a different evolution, with the most intense pulse of wind coming through mid-afternoon prior to the front with SW winds. That is a less common big wind direction around here. Still gusts in the 40s/50s with the front, but I'm skeptical of the mid-50s winds pre-frontal. We will be well-mixed, however, so can't rule it out.
  9. MN Transplant
    The dude on the roof. Oh man.
  10. MN Transplant
    12Z NAM nest
  11. MN Transplant
    That makes a lot of sense.
  12. MN Transplant
    12z mesoscale runs (edit - 12z NAM isn't out yet on weather.us, I'll update when it is). These are dependent on some level of convection bringing down the winds. The HRRR keeps most of the convection to the north in MD and it is spottier (the time step before has 70mph winds in the hills near Frederick). The NAM has a more consolidated line.
  13. MN Transplant
    Here are the other models for Saturday afternoon at the peak gust period in the 95 corridor. Euro remains least interested and the GFS remains quite excited.
  14. MN Transplant
    06z NAM Nest 1hr max gust product. Large area of 60mph+ in MD.
  15. MN Transplant
    If the event ends up looking like the NAM above, we are going to see massive severe thunderstorm warning boxes accompanying that line for wind.
  16. MN Transplant
    As the wind threat has moved from the global to the mesoscale model range, the view of the character of the event has changed. Rather than a lengthy synoptic event, the NAM and HRRR both have an intense surge of wind accompanying the frontal passage. Might be wild for a shorter period.
  17. MN Transplant
    The NAM Nest is pretty aggressive on the post-frontal winds on Saturday evening. Gusts in the 50s.
  18. MN Transplant
    We'll see how April goes, and then it might be time to fire up the hottest-year-on-record tracker.
  19. MN Transplant
    GFS is still most aggressive with Saturday's winds, with gusts well into the 50s and even some 60s. The other models are not buying in. The NWS point and click for me has a max gust of 47mph.
  20. MN Transplant
    Yeah, I like big dog hunting. And I got 7” of bonus snow in 15/16, which is more than I can say about 3 of the 7 winters since.
  21. MN Transplant
    It’ll be interesting to see if we can maximize the wind. There is a disconnect right now between the best boundary layer setup (afternoon, such as in your sounding) and the best wind direction (downslope NW) which occurs more toward the evening.
  22. MN Transplant
    Yeah, it was pervasive. Not terrible readings on PM2.5, but a spike around noon. https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/03/27/dc-smell-north-carolina-wildfires/
  23. MN Transplant
    Cleanly the worst snowfall winter if you sum or average the total of the three main climo sites. Just awful.
  24. MN Transplant
    It smells outside
  25. MN Transplant
    That's some high-end stuff. Awful.
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