Morning modeling looks pretty good for you. There seems to be a touch of a bend back at landfall. Even if it slips to your east, that'll just make the water even more wild with a more northerly/westerly component.
12z GFS is interesting. Gets into the Gulf with a path over the tip of Cuba, but since it misses the trough that the Euro has it just sits and slowly loses intensity off of Tampa.
The Euro track is so similar to Charley. Weak TD/TS through the southern Caribbean, slides south of Jamaica, cuts up through Cuba near Havana, and into southern FL.
Want some depressing stuff? Here are the temps from around 1900 vs around 2000. Departures from current norms. Yeah, we can still pull off a Dec. 2000, or Feb. 2007 or 2015, but woof.
For that set of years (Winter season, DCA):
Below normal precip: 6
Near normal precip: 4
Above normal precip: 1
Above normal temps: 7
Near normal temps: 3
Below normal temps: 1
The only ok combos were '05-06 (13.6") with near normal precip and temps and '20-21 (5.4") with above normal precip and near normal temps.