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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    Just a completely different evolution than the Euro. That said, the players are there. The euro pairs the shortwave in the SW with the trough diving down through the Plains. The GFS has both of these things, but doesn't sync them up.
  2. MN Transplant
    Just for fun, the wind accumulation product from Windy provides the peak modeled wind gust. Let's see how they do at DCA: NAM 3k (06z): 57mph HRRR (13z): 60mph (!) GFS (06z): 63mph Euro (06z): 49mph ICON (06z): 54mph
  3. MN Transplant
    You are correct. The HRRR has definitely stepped up winds since yesterday.
  4. MN Transplant
    973 low making landfall in coastal Maine with Caribou switching over to rain.
  5. MN Transplant
    It’s not the same track.
  6. MN Transplant
    12z HRRR looks far more realistic with the surface wind gusts than the NAM. Peak wind gusts via Windy. Reds are 40s, purples are 50s.
  7. MN Transplant
    A causal reminder that, inland, we don't typically get big winds with SE flow. It generally stays elevated. That said, the NWS P&C for DC Tuesday evening has 30G45mph which is solid.
  8. MN Transplant
    35.1. The steady rain has started. Was in downtown DC earlier and never saw a flake. Sleet to rain.
  9. MN Transplant
    33.3 here. Most of downtown DC is in the 36 range.
  10. MN Transplant
    23.2, which was colder than any December day, but not as cold as Nov. 29th.
  11. MN Transplant
    If only we had that track in Jan/Feb…
  12. MN Transplant
    For this storm, that is a NAMming around DC. I like how the model R/S line stalls a bit at 18-19z before completely blowing past us.
  13. MN Transplant
    The NAM has been bone dry so far. Significant outlier.
  14. MN Transplant
    The NAM is really dry and weak. The Euro is 8mb deeper and wetter.
  15. MN Transplant
    925 temps at DCA at 00z: +5 or +6
  16. MN Transplant
    This is a bad run for 95
  17. MN Transplant
    Does that account for a close mow? It is wild that this turned into a Saturday only event.
  18. MN Transplant
    2” of rain just east of DC. I’m ignoring this one.
  19. MN Transplant
    988 Cape May. We toss.
  20. MN Transplant
    Snow maps are going to struggle on the boundary. Soundings and QPF are the way to go. I’m modestly happy with this run sitting on the western DC Beltway.
  21. MN Transplant
    The column is holding on for dear life from 18 to 21z in the DC area. It eventually falls, but there’s almost 0.6” precip by 21z. Ratios would suck, but it would be a few inches of snow first in this scenario.
  22. MN Transplant
    GFS isn’t terrible all things considered. It is so dry coming in that we get solid evaporational cooling. Precip totals are back up closer to an inch.
  23. MN Transplant
    Forgetting the thermals for a second, the improvement in QPF from 12 to 18z is notable. We are back over 1” region wide.
  24. MN Transplant
    Not worth fretting about. Column is fine and heavy snow accumulates. Our risk is track.
  25. MN Transplant
    CoD has me at 15" 10:1, 10" Kucera, and 2" snow depth. LOL
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