MN Transplant

Yeah. This is a brutal image. The +2 period is basically ending in 2040, +3 in 2060, and +4 in 2080. Projected changes to mean annual snowfall (%) at Toronto, Ontario (a); Montréal, Québec (b); Halifax, Nova Scotia (c); Boston, Massachusetts (d); New York City, New York (e); and Washington, D.C. (f) for the three global warming levels. Relative changes with respect to the 1980–2009 mean are plotted for each CRCM5 simulation (symbols indicated in the legend). A kernel density estimation of the distribution of projected changes among the CRCM5-ClimEx simulations is shaded in the gray violin plots generated using the Seaborn package (Waskom, 2021). Within each violin plot, a smaller box plot is included indicating the median (white dot), 25th–75th percentile (dark gray box) and complete range of the CRCM5-ClimEx data (dark gray vertical lines). Values calculated from the pooled data for all 50 ClimEx members are indicated by the purple circles. Signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) calculated from the ClimEx data is indicated under each violin plot.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023JD038804 Plain Language Summary Snowstorms affect the highly populated regions of the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada every winter, disrupting ground and air travel and resulting in substantial socioeconomic impacts. Understanding how climate change may impact snowstorms is necessary for this region to prepare for the future. We explore how snowstorms in these regions may change in a future, warmer world using two sets of climate model simulations. We find that yearly total snowfall is likely to decrease over most of this region, with the largest declines to the south and smaller declines farther north. Despite these decreases, we find that the snowfall amounts that currently occur during the largest snowstorms are still likely to occur even in a much warmer future climate. Finally, we examine snowstorms that produce a large percentage of the annual snowfall during a single event. We find that the region where these big snowstorms relative to the yearly snowfall occur most often will shift northward in the future. In summary, while yearly snowfall is likely to decrease nearly everywhere in eastern North America, significant snowstorms will continue to occur, and some regions will see more of their yearly snowfall during a few large events.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/34/6/JCLI-D-20-0197.1.xml 5. Summary and discussion This study investigates effects of global warming on extreme snowstorms along the NEUS coast by conducting and comparing dynamical-downscaling WRF simulations driven with and without the mean climate change signal extracted from HiRAM historical and future simulations. The 93 observed snowstorms in 1980–2015 documented in G. Chen et al. (2019) were adopted as surrogates for studying the potential effects. Results show that the number of events with moderate and heavy daily snowfall (SWE greater than 10 mm day−1) at Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C. is decreased from 60, 54, 43, and 30 to 32, 29, 30, and 20, respectively (Fig. 7). In addition, although the rainfall increases in all four cities, total precipitation increases in the south (especially along the coast), where the rainfall is increased due to the warming-caused increase of water vapor content and upward vertical motion, but decreases in the north (especially along the coast), where the rainfall increase is overwhelmed by the snow decrease (Figs. 5–7). As a result, the precipitation distribution exhibits a southwestward shift. Another notable effect is that the frequency of mixed rain and snow and freezing precipitation events is increased in the north of NEUS (Figs. 8 and 9), attributed to the northward retreat of the 0°C zone and the expansion of the zone with temperature near 0°C.

Yeah, IAD 90 after a low of 54 today! So, IAD hit 90 in September and still had a negative daily departure. BWI 87, DCA 85.

The GFS is broken. The NAM's 95ish makes more sense.

It has never hit 100 at Dulles in September.

A truly remarkable W-E gradient in precipitation this meteorological summer.

Euro with more realistic mid-90s now for next week.

Curious about how Valdosta will fare. 65 miles from the coast, which at 15mph is 4-5 hours after landfall.

With visualization of the HAFS-B location this evening. I’m skeptical it gets that far west.

If you look at the HAFS-B from 06z, which seems to be about the west most model, it swings out from 85W to 85.5W before coming back east. It’ll be interesting to see if we get a westerly component as the day goes on.

How far would you consider going west? I could imagine Perry even being in play.

Fully agree.

I’m mobile so I’m not sure I’m getting this right, but I’m seeing very few major hurricane landfalls in the Big Bend area, and really from Appalachicola to Tampa. https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=6.76/29.139/-83.246&search=eyJzZWFyY2hTdHJpbmciOiJGbG9yaWRhLCBVU0EiLCJzZWFyY2hUeXBlIjoiZ2VvY29kZWQiLCJvc21JRCI6IjE2MjA1MCIsImNhdGVnb3JpZXMiOlsiSDUiLCJINCIsIkgzIl0sInllYXJzIjpbXSwibW9udGhzIjpbXSwiZW5zbyI6W10sInByZXNzdXJlIjp7InJhbmdlIjpbMCwxMDMwXSwiaW5jbHVkZVVua25vd25QcmVzc3VyZSI6dHJ1ZX0sImJ1ZmZlciI6NjAsImJ1ZmZlclVuaXQiOlsiTmF1dGljYWwgTWlsZXMiXSwic29ydFNlbGVjdGlvbiI6eyJ2YWx1ZSI6InllYXJzX25ld2VzdCIsImxhYmVsIjoiWWVhciAoTmV3ZXN0KSJ9LCJhcHBseVRvQU9JIjp0cnVlLCJpc1N0b3JtTGFiZWxzVmlzaWJsZSI6dHJ1ZX0=

It went completely off the deep end maybe 1-2 months ago. There was some discussion about the land surface being a problem, but it looked like it was only in the long range. It wasn’t. My hometown has an all-time high of 107 and it was trying to pump out like 110-113 from a few days out. The reality was 100.

Periods of 5+ days with at least 6" of snow on the ground at DCA (modern era) 1958 (Feb 16-20, max 14") 1961 (Jan 27-31, Max 9"), (Feb 9-14, Max 10") - 17 of 25 days in this stretch 1966 (Jan 30-Feb 3, Max 16") 1979 (Feb 13-Feb 23, Max 22") 1982 (Jan 21-29, Max 10") 1983 (Feb 12-16, Max 6") - Highs in the 50s the last two days 1987 (Jan 23-Feb 2, Max 18") 1996 (Jan 7-17, Max 20") 2003 (Feb 16-22, Max 16") 2009 (Dec 19-25, Max 16") 2010 (Feb 6-20, Max 18")

Nice 0.74" to break a short dry spell of just over a week.

Severe warned storm headed towards the DC metro.

I don’t post in the long range thread because I don’t follow this stuff as closely as you all do, but I have to say that while the globe is clearly warming and things are changing, we are less than 10 years removed from a couple of really cold and pretty snowy winters. Hell, we almost put up a -10 for the month of February 2015. The climate is changing but all is not lost.

The GFS has completely fallen apart as far as how deep it is mixing the boundary layer. It has been missing by 10+ degrees from a few hours out in the Midwest heat wave. Ignore the surface temps from the operational runs. That said, still nasty out there to our west. 100/78 at OHare today.

12z Euro trying to home brew. Eastern Gulf storm at 150.

90/80 at 11am at OHare. Worse in other parts of the Midwest. All glory to the eastern trough.

Hmmm, pass. Public Information Statement National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 305 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 ...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX REPORTS TODAY AS OF 3 PM... Location Heat Idx. Time/Date Provider U.s.169 - Mankato - Mp 52 120 F 0225 PM 08/22 MESOWEST Spring Lake Township 119 F 0251 PM 08/22 MESOWEST T.h.110 - Inver Grove Hts - 119 F 0230 PM 08/22 MESOWEST T.h.60 - Madelia - Mp 86 118 F 0220 PM 08/22 MESOWEST U.s.169 - Henderson - Mp 86 118 F 0220 PM 08/22 MESOWEST Hanover 117 F 0250 PM 08/22 MESOWEST Jordan 117 F 0251 PM 08/22 MESOWEST Buffalo AP 117 F 0255 PM 08/22 AWOS Corcoran 116 F 0250 PM 08/22 MESOWEST Minneapolis 116 F 0250 PM 08/22 MESOWEST I-90 - Blue Earth - Mp 119 116 F 0240 PM 08/22 MESOWEST T.h.19 - Morton - Mp 78 116 F 0250 PM 08/22 MESOWEST 1 W Becker 115 F 0220 PM 08/22 NDAWN Rockford 115 F 0240 PM 08/22 MESOWEST Eden Prairie AP 115 F 0253 PM 08/22 ASOS Fairmont AP 115 F 0156 PM 08/22 AWOS Princeton AP 115 F 0255 PM 08/22 AWOS T.h.7 - New Germany - Mp 161 115 F 0200 PM 08/22 MESOWEST I-494 - Minnetonka - Mp 18 115 F 0245 PM 08/22 MESOWEST Carver 3S 115 F 0249 PM 08/22 RAWS

It is amazing how we don't even get the rollover heat this year. Bless the eastern trough.