MN Transplant
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Everything posted by MN Transplant
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Same as all the other weather events. We celebrate snowstorms even though they often result in some fatalities (crashes, heart attacks, etc.). Can't do anything about it, so might as well follow interesting weather. I thoroughly enjoyed March 2018's windstorm. This isn't in the same ballpark, but we haven't had anything to track forever.
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True, but I wonder if SW vs W/NW really matters much. The Isabel-like SE winds, absolutely.
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Interesting, now the 18z HRRR has a different evolution, with the most intense pulse of wind coming through mid-afternoon prior to the front with SW winds. That is a less common big wind direction around here. Still gusts in the 40s/50s with the front, but I'm skeptical of the mid-50s winds pre-frontal. We will be well-mixed, however, so can't rule it out.
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Severe Weather 3-30-23 and 3-31-23
MN Transplant replied to cheese007's topic in Central/Western States
The dude on the roof. Oh man. -
12Z NAM nest
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That makes a lot of sense.
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12z mesoscale runs (edit - 12z NAM isn't out yet on weather.us, I'll update when it is). These are dependent on some level of convection bringing down the winds. The HRRR keeps most of the convection to the north in MD and it is spottier (the time step before has 70mph winds in the hills near Frederick). The NAM has a more consolidated line.
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Here are the other models for Saturday afternoon at the peak gust period in the 95 corridor. Euro remains least interested and the GFS remains quite excited.
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06z NAM Nest 1hr max gust product. Large area of 60mph+ in MD.
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If the event ends up looking like the NAM above, we are going to see massive severe thunderstorm warning boxes accompanying that line for wind.
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As the wind threat has moved from the global to the mesoscale model range, the view of the character of the event has changed. Rather than a lengthy synoptic event, the NAM and HRRR both have an intense surge of wind accompanying the frontal passage. Might be wild for a shorter period.
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The NAM Nest is pretty aggressive on the post-frontal winds on Saturday evening. Gusts in the 50s.
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We'll see how April goes, and then it might be time to fire up the hottest-year-on-record tracker.
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GFS is still most aggressive with Saturday's winds, with gusts well into the 50s and even some 60s. The other models are not buying in. The NWS point and click for me has a max gust of 47mph.
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Yeah, I like big dog hunting. And I got 7” of bonus snow in 15/16, which is more than I can say about 3 of the 7 winters since.
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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)
MN Transplant replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
It’ll be interesting to see if we can maximize the wind. There is a disconnect right now between the best boundary layer setup (afternoon, such as in your sounding) and the best wind direction (downslope NW) which occurs more toward the evening.- 2,785 replies
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Yeah, it was pervasive. Not terrible readings on PM2.5, but a spike around noon. https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/03/27/dc-smell-north-carolina-wildfires/
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The Seasonal Snowfall Futility Markers
MN Transplant replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic
Cleanly the worst snowfall winter if you sum or average the total of the three main climo sites. Just awful. -
It smells outside
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That's some high-end stuff. Awful.
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We all joke about drought, but it really does suck when it happens.
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Amazing, those 240 hour forecasts are usually right on!
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I'm up to 0.97" storm total. Looks like the best was from DC west along 66 and north and west of Frederick.
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My moral victory this bracket is that I was correct in bouncing all 1 seeds before the final four. I just didn’t pick the right replacements!
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A bit chillier than the models had it. 40.8 0.70”
