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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    I’ll leave the snowfall map to others, but the 06z NAM nest is similar to prior. Lose the column at 5pm after 0.15” precip in DC, lose the surface at 7pm after an additional 0.15” frozen.
  2. MN Transplant
    18.9. Coldest since 2/2/19 at home.
  3. MN Transplant
    Yup, everything about that eruption is mesmerizing. I had a little bump on my PWS.
  4. MN Transplant
    We are going to have a midnight high at DCA today and a pre-midnight high tomorrow just to screw with us.
  5. MN Transplant
    Don't even need to. Don't worry, the extra 0.17" or so of sleet/ZR will be immediately washed away by the following torrent of rain at 37 degrees.
  6. MN Transplant
    It really is like 2 hours of not heavy snow on the front end of the NAM before we ping and then rain. Brutal.
  7. MN Transplant
    We know to a pretty good certainty that the 850 low is going to go over or just west of DC. What that practically means in terms of timing, front-end thump, and ratio of snow/ice/rain is still to be nailed down, and that's where the meso models will help.
  8. MN Transplant
    Everyone wants better modeling. The weenies did not understand the repercussions!
  9. MN Transplant
    The NAM is much drier. Front end thump less impressive. Something to watch.
  10. MN Transplant
  11. MN Transplant
    This is really the wrong season to root for a Wilmington to DC low track.
  12. MN Transplant
    GFS still looks ok. ~0.5" QPF by the changeover close to 00z Monday near DC.
  13. MN Transplant
    One good change has been the elimination of the "torch" scenario with temps >45 for a period. Monday also looks cooler again, but still mid-30s.
  14. MN Transplant
    Despite all of the little changes across all the models, we just keep coming up with the same thing. Front end thump to rain for DC. It has looked like this for days and I really doubt it is going to change now.
  15. MN Transplant
    Had to get something out of the 6 years of college. 850 low is going to track just over DC or to the west. No major improvement. Still a decent front-end storm.
  16. MN Transplant
    I'd be grasping at straws to find any significant differences at hour 69 from the 06z run, but the atlantic low is a bit closer in (less spacing).
  17. MN Transplant
    Heights are in meters
  18. MN Transplant
    The surface low path on the ICON is interesting. Just offshore SC/NC, over the southern Outer Banks, and then it curls back under the 500 low west of Va Beach.
  19. MN Transplant
    At 66 hrs, the 850 low is further south (central MS vs northern MS) than it was on the 06z NAM/GFS.
  20. MN Transplant
    I know we've seen it on every model, but it still boggles my mind that this thing is going from an extreme positive tilt to a negative one in such a short distance.
  21. MN Transplant
    I am absolutely looking at it. I hadn't really been paying attention to it, but that 850 jet straight from the north through NE/KS/OK is impressive.
  22. MN Transplant
    It was absolutely puking snow at like 4am, which is another reason why you may not remember it.
  23. MN Transplant
    Not perfect matches, obviously, but that negative tilt over the southern plains to a bowling ball over DC is a good match for Jan. 2011 commuteaggedon.
  24. MN Transplant
    Yeah, I just didn't want to see a big move to the GFS solution. I'd take the Euro.
  25. MN Transplant
    Yeah, we probably lose the column at 4z or 5z. Not a lot of difference in freezing lines between surface, 925, 850, and 700 is not a problem, so if there is a mix, it would be a short period.
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