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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    Wednesday afternoon - near freezing on the NAM nest, near 50 on the Euro.
  2. MN Transplant
    One interesting difference between the 12z NAM/GFS and 06z Euro is the 00z Friday temps. Mid-40s from the American guidance while mid-50s from the Europeans.
  3. MN Transplant
    The problem is, we are 4 days away and it isn't even close on any of the models. Most have rain, but the GFS pushes the cold air at the surface much more vigorously. This is a later afternoon Friday sounding from the GFS, which is the coldest of the models. It isn't going to snow.
  4. MN Transplant
    Looks like the climo stations will end up in the -2 to -3 range for January. That is somewhat muted because of the extremely high temps of Jan 1&2.
  5. MN Transplant
    Falls Church, VA 1/3/22 - 8.8" 1/7/22 - 2.8" 1/16/22 - 2.8” 1/28/22 - 1.2" Total: 15.6” (20" is roughly climo)
  6. MN Transplant
    Ended up with 1.2” on 0.14” precip. So, the temps didn’t hurt as much as the dud precip totals. It will be interesting to see the final totals for the three places that I had targeted (however imaginary) as a chase: Worchester, Riverhead (eastern LI), and Atlantic City. All of them are looking pretty good, especially LI.
  7. MN Transplant
    Nothing falling in Falls Church. Looks like 0.5” but I’ll do a real measurement later. Yet again we find out that temps don’t matter if rates are good, but if the snow is light, temps are crucial.
  8. MN Transplant
    Flake size is terrible and it is still above freezing.
  9. MN Transplant
    Now the ground is getting white. 34.0
  10. MN Transplant
    Good thing we have a few more days before the event! 36.2. Snowflakes aren't melting as fast.
  11. MN Transplant
    So, over 6 hours. 38.4 here. Occasional snowflakes wafting down.
  12. MN Transplant
    Only place with 2"+ precip is right on the Cape. Kind of takes "historic" off the table.
  13. MN Transplant
    The latest HRRR puts DC into the 40s, but it still ends up ok because the precip is a bit delayed.
  14. MN Transplant
    I think there is still timing issues. Some of the data is coming later for free, but still, it does take a bite out of the full pay sites or the "upgrade" sites (Pivotal, Windy, Weather.us, etc.).
  15. MN Transplant
    35.8 College of Dupage has also added the 06/18z Euro! We are going to see a lot of the sites upgrade their Euro offerings with the news this week that ECMWF has opened up a bunch of their data for free.
  16. MN Transplant
    If you click on the floater segment from College of Dupage you can get to the 1 hr precipitation for the NAM Nest. There is a band mid-day tomorrow up by BOS that is ~0.30". Awesome stuff. I toyed with buzzing up to Atlantic City also, but it maxes out at about 0.10"/hr and is in the wee hours of the morning. While this would last longer and have more wind, I've already seen those rates this year on Jan 3rd.
  17. MN Transplant
    NAM things
  18. MN Transplant
    30.9 Laughing at the 06z NAM.
  19. MN Transplant
    I’d be lying if I said that I didn’t just peek at hotels in Worchester.
  20. MN Transplant
    They got NAM’d
  21. MN Transplant
    I don’t know why we can’t talk about Boston. This was never our storm. It looks awesome up there. Sometimes it is fun to just marvel at a big one.
  22. MN Transplant
    Worse than the parent NAM, but like the HRRR is has been getting slightly wetter.
  23. MN Transplant
    Interesting that the 12k NAM keep the high near freezing while the 3k and HRRR send DC to 36-37.
  24. MN Transplant
    Worchester, MA snow forecast (10:1) 18z NAM: 20.0” 18z NAM Nest: 3.0” 12z GFS: 1.8” 12z Euro: 9.0” Good luck, forecasters.
  25. MN Transplant
    I know that the HRRR can be…sketchy, but the low precip totals that it is putting out for coastal areas is amazing.
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