MN Transplant

19 this morning. So, it ended up being 46 degrees in 18 hours. Brrr.

Because mine started earlier I’m not going to hit any of those metrics. Was still 50 at 4pm and then took an additional dive. Still, 65 to the 20s is a tumble.

If this were early winter or pre-storm, we would be talking about how impressive a temperature drop this was. I’m down 35 degrees from my 11am high. Got a second surge of wind at about 8pm too.

Wow, I liked his time series output of the models. Simple but effective.

Airports have gusted to the mid-40s. I was working outside under some trees and thought better of it.

65.5 today. Overperformer of course.

Depending on what you are talking about, you could probably put them at the curb and list them for free.

This weather is as worthless as 95 and humid.

I bet I’m 1-2 miles east of you. Roads are doing better than the sidewalks, which have caved.

Car tops are starting to whiten up. Flake size is tiny.

Nice snowTV in Alexandria.

That’s obviously overkill, but it wouldn’t be shocking to get a coating of fluff from the ULL on Thursday.

Useless cold. 25.2

Because the parent NAM is low resolution. 3km NAM is a shutout for most. La Plata gets a few inches.

Kucera is out of control. That’s like a 17:1 ratio.

I should add that the 12z Euro isn't all that far off from the NAM with that vort, but it swings the southern part through faster. So, yeah, unfortunately not as easy as a big bowling ball coming across the country.

The NAM gives us the route that we want, it is just unfortunate that it is the model that we least trust. The top image is the NAM. The vort that swings through is helping to close off the 500 low near Chicago. The bottom is the GFS, where it is closing off the low over Minneapolis. We need the vort to help us bridge, not cut off.

As I keep looping the 500 charts for both the GFS and Euro, I can’t help but think that there’s really a third party here that is helping to make a mess. These aren’t all distinct pieces, but there’s a short wave dropping down from BC that is more or less aligned with our energy that is about to hit the west coast. As these two pieces of energy rotate together in a longer wave pattern, the northern piece helps to close off the 500 low over ND/MN, while the southern piece (our storm) becomes disconnected and rotates through ahead of the 500 low. Adding to this is the completely unhelpful retrograde of the energy over Quebec which also slows the eastern movement of the northern low and enhances the disconnect.

It’s acting as a kicker

This is my take. There isn’t any useful interaction going on.

Temp soaring. Up to 59. Pressure 985.4

Yeah, tanking. 989.0, 29.21"

RGEM is putrid

Warned squall line approaching Richmond

Ok, summary for those waking up. Still a jackpot to the south and east. Huge difference in how big/strong the storm gets, which affects the totals to the north and west. 10:1 snow amounts for DC: GFS: 5" (06z), 4" (00z) Euro: 6.5" (06z), 9" (00z) Canadian: 0.5" (00z) ICON: 10" (06z), 5" (00z) Ukie: 2" (00z) Euro AI: 4.5" (00z)