As I keep looping the 500 charts for both the GFS and Euro, I can’t help but think that there’s really a third party here that is helping to make a mess. These aren’t all distinct pieces, but there’s a short wave dropping down from BC that is more or less aligned with our energy that is about to hit the west coast. As these two pieces of energy rotate together in a longer wave pattern, the northern piece helps to close off the 500 low over ND/MN, while the southern piece (our storm) becomes disconnected and rotates through ahead of the 500 low.
Adding to this is the completely unhelpful retrograde of the energy over Quebec which also slows the eastern movement of the northern low and enhances the disconnect.