This just seems like the typical evolution of cold events. I tend to think models sometimes overdo cold at long range and it gets more reasonable the closer we get to the arrival of the cold air.
What does under-dispersion mean? Is it just what you describe where it’s too similar to the OP? I guess it isn’t making enough tweaks for each different outcome?
I can’t be too down if we’re seeing fantasy storms. I can’t remember seeing too many of those in recent years. If it means I need to drive up a hill to see some snow, I’ll do it. As long as it’s cold.
Had 0.1” in Blacksburg yesterday, and it’s been flurrying off/on all day, now with some mixed stuff.
Visited a mountaintop to get some true snow squall snow and probably got 0.5” there in a short time, but it was blown away by the wind.
There’s Comet C/2023 A3 in the sky too, i forgot to see it before it set today, so I’ll have to try again tomorrow. It will set later each night apparently.
It’s gotten breezy, and I might have my first actual band soon! I’m interested in the 9:00am timeframe tomorrow for my location in the northern neck, as around that time seems to have the highest 0-1km SRH values and some CAPE on the HREF means.
Being in the northern neck, not sure if we got an inch of rain, but it looks about done except for any blobs that may happen today. It seems as though they form over land, and there isn’t really any to my southeast for them to form on.