Rhino16
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Everything posted by Rhino16
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We’ll probably have to wait for a substorm tonight for best chances.
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Tomorrow night seems to be the one to watch. Won’t complain if it continues into monday night.
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We haven’t had much interesting that hasn’t been timed alongside clouds and rain so I’m hopeful this time will be good.
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Did get some good storm photos yesterday! I was quite surprised. Sunday and Monday may be chances to see Aurora if the air can stay clear.
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Not many changes at 20z, just some adjustments north and “trimming”. rest of outlook is same as previous. ...20Z Update... The primary change to the Day 1 Convective Outlook was to slightly expand severe probabilities farther north in NJ to account for placement of stronger storms likely preceding the surface low track. The western bounds of severe probabilities were also trimmed to account for the passage of the surface low and surface cold front. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/30/2025
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Very big expansion of the 5% Tor in the latest outlook…
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Reviving this thread, maybe it’s better to make a new one soon, or we can see how long this one can persists. I’m a little more interested in today. I think I can see some hints of instability on the northern edge of the cloud cover, and mesoanalysis indicates we have about 500 j/kg of CAPE over the area. I’m still waiting for the clouds to leave, it’s 69/67.
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A lot of guidance has the classic gap that opens up just west of Richmond and continues to the coast. Not sure if that’s because of the rain the models want to send through early morning, or some other phenomenon, but it’s annoying to see instead of something to break up the cloudy days.
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I’ve forgotten what good storms are like. Makes me want to return to the plains.
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Hopefully it’s not all used up! I can’t take another 98° 0 wind day on the water.
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Officially a meteorologist! yay.
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It’s out here in the mountains. edit: hopefully it’s gone before graduation Thursday… edit2: imagine if this were snow…
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It’s that time of year too. Spring patterns can be rough sometimes.
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Interested to see what happens with the morsels of CAPE and LLJ combo… I have some guesses, but will wait until tomorrow…
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I need these clouds to go away!!!
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I noticed that yesterday, I really hope there’s a conveniently timed gap.
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grading for blacksburg: D. I don’t think we got to half our mean snowfall this year. There were 2 huge ice storms that were just annoying. When it did snow, it impacted travel to AMS, so that was annoying. I might be able to allow a low C just for the cold, and the mood flakes from upslope.
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I had some cool pea sized hail today from an odd storm that had a really cool streaky look from the precip / hail.
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Does Pivotal Wx obnoxiously freeze for anyone else? It’s annoying having to change tabs to unfreeze it.
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I could not be graduating with a met degree at a worse time. I don’t know what my next steps will be. May is an eternity from now. I could go grad, but I worry about funding and research.
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Roads covered in Blacksburg, but I wouldn’t say it’s any significant amount yet, probably not a quarter inch yet. Walk to class will be enjoyable at least! But: I can see dryslot approaching?
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They may use fresh data from weather stations and planes, and perhaps any special balloon’s launched. The 18z GFS seems to do better than 12z from what I’ve seen playing in WxChallenge.
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11/21: 0.1” 11/22: T 1/3: Wasn’t Present to get Squall amounts 1/5: 1.1” 1/11: ~3” with upslope 1/19: T 2/11: ~3.5 ish Probaby missed a few half inch events and stuff like that.
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Well, I have what could be my last snow day before I’m officially a meteorologist… I’m scared.
