Maybe here? I don’t know what type of file it would be, but it looks right, and you can sort by WFO.
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cow/sbwsum.phtml
I don’t know if anyone really thought a watch would be necessary this morning. The LWX 2:39pm AFD mentions unimpressive shear across the area, while the 9:45pm AFD uses words to suggest more shear. So my guess would be that shear is a bit more impressive than expected.
Does WB show what climatology it is using?
edit: actually this wouldn’t necessarily be the reason it’s wrong, especially if the other models agree with each other…
It’s there now. Probably easier to see it from College of duPage. I don’t understand why they kept the 5% all the way down into NC, I think even in this morning’s update, that was kinda questionable.
edit: guess the sun’s been out more down there, and shear is better so it makes sense.
In the northern neck, not expecting it to make it this far. Was looking forward to tomorrow but I feel this may have tamped it down a bit. We’ll have to see.
edit: ah, I see that scenario was questioned earlier too.
This NAM run kept the look, perhaps beefier cape in spots, but that could be NAM doing NAM stuff + run to run variability. I do notice a transition to inverted V’s after 15z, but that was present before too.
21z has almost 4000 CAPE, 54kts 0-6km shear with decent backing further east it seems, 176 3Cape, crazy stuff, but it’s the NAM, still interesting to see for now.