Rhino16

Already 32.6 at Canaan NWR. Fast! It was 37.3 this time yesterday.

It’s already 40.6 at Canaan NWR. 50ish at surrounding mountaintops it seems.

They list the next day’s flights here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml Today’s are here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. HURRICANE ERIN FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77 18/1600Z AFXXX 1705A ERIN 18/1400Z NA 18/1545Z TO 18/2015Z SFC TO 10,000 FT BUOY DEPLOYMENT WRA ACTIVATION it seems like they were deploying buoys, i guess to sample stuff.

It seems to have been raised to 65kt at 36H in the 5pm discussion. “…The global and regional hurricane model fields shows Dexter's metamorphosis, with to development of frontal features as the wind field becomes quite asymmetric. In fact, the maximum sustained winds in 24-36 h are likely related to a sting jet that curves cyclonically around the cyclone's western flank during this time frame. The hurricane-regional models, and even the most recent 12 UTC ECMWF run show winds up to hurricane-force in the southwest quadrant. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast will now explicitly show a 65-kt extratropical cyclone in 36 h. After occlusion, the low will slowly weaken through the remainder of the forecast period, ultimately dissipating by early next week in the far northeastern Atlantic. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 40.0N 56.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 40.6N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 41.9N 49.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 08/0600Z 43.5N 45.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/1800Z 44.8N 41.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 09/0600Z 45.5N 37.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1800Z 46.0N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1800Z 47.0N 24.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin “

If you haven’t decided yet, today looks okay for a clear night sky, at least according to the HRDPS which is apparently a decent model for cloud cover which I’ve heard in space weather groups. Satellite also seems good at the moment. Good luck stargazing.

Happy birthday!

Unidata has a series on their youtube channel where they show how to retrieve data, manipulate it, plot it, etc. It’s all in python though, but maybe it would help.

I just graduated from the VT Program, and am considering returning for masters in an adjacent topic. Your ideas seem to be the profs current thinking at the moment with respect to AI. I’ve heard from numerous people that the field is shifting towards a model where meteorologists will be interacting with the public much more, instead of sitting at the forecast desk all day, at least in the public sector.

Thanks! Ha, Thanks! I’ll be back tomorrow…

I’ve gotten older again. This time, I’ll get to go around the sun as a meteorologist. Let’s see what I’m doing this time next year…

A quick rain shower over the northern neck. Maybe it will add half to 3/4 of an inch or so. It was coming down. Wonder if they’re using some CAPE from the bay to sustain themselves.

Radar might be covered in outflow boundaries to the south later. Maybe there will be some cool collisions to see.

Happy Birthday!

Mine is probably impossible to achieve.

Managed to mostly split the gap earlier, but did get maybe a 0.1” from the south half of the line. Got to see 2 small shelf clouds though, and lots of lightning. Getting random showers now with some rumbles. Waiting for the random beginning of august impressive unexpected thunderstorm.

Are there any good resources to learn little things like this, or is it all just time, experience, and networking? It feels like there’s still so much to learn. I should practice forecasting while I’m not doing anything.

Not a drop today, kind of disappointing when the air is a liquid.

DCA: 99 IAD: 99 BWI: 99 RIC: 101

We’ll probably have to wait for a substorm tonight for best chances.

18/10/4

Tomorrow night seems to be the one to watch. Won’t complain if it continues into monday night.

We haven’t had much interesting that hasn’t been timed alongside clouds and rain so I’m hopeful this time will be good.

Did get some good storm photos yesterday! I was quite surprised. Sunday and Monday may be chances to see Aurora if the air can stay clear.

Not many changes at 20z, just some adjustments north and “trimming”. rest of outlook is same as previous. ...20Z Update... The primary change to the Day 1 Convective Outlook was to slightly expand severe probabilities farther north in NJ to account for placement of stronger storms likely preceding the surface low track. The western bounds of severe probabilities were also trimmed to account for the passage of the surface low and surface cold front. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/30/2025

Very big expansion of the 5% Tor in the latest outlook…