Rhino16
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Everything posted by Rhino16
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My RIC Predictions: 10th: Hi/Lo: 66/45 Precip: 1.91" 11th: Hi/Lo: 51/30 Precip: 0.71"
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Hope to see flakes on the end of that here in blacksburg, will attempt another forecast for RIC on Saturday.
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Just from some forecasting I’ve done over the past few weeks, the GFS has done very well on precipitation. I’m terrible at temperatures though, but that’s because of the situations we’ve been given each week. Also agree the Euro has been not as great. Sometimes however, it will be 5° warmer than anything else and somehow be the closest. I’m trying to get some practice in to see when and when not to trust it.
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Which option should I dial to panic over southeast ridge troubles?
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There’s also like 30-40mph gusts so walking to class will be great.
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Snowing at blacksburg, it’s somewhat of a surprise.
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How cold is the western subsurface normally in other strong events around this time? What’s the depth to watch, 0-300m?
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Fall never really gives us anything to hint at a snowy winter here, models look much better than last winter already, so I’m hopeful for something better than last winter. edit: and from what i’ve heard, late starts aren’t uncommon with niños, however, I haven’t looked at the stats for that.
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Hopefully the cold lovers down there get their cold too.
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0.1 off, Can’t be mad at that. 2 off for my high is disappointing but temps are where I struggle, so not unexpected. edit: My guess of 0.76 was exactly right! High today was 2 off, edit2: Low was 1 off.
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That’s much higher than I would expect, but we haven’t had any good snow in so long I can’t remember what good numbers are. in terms of rainfall, I think I was too high for today, and the event overall, but we’ll see.
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Did we ever get 3 hits on an ensemble last winter at all?
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I feel like it’s a little low for Richmond, but it’s trended less this run so maybe not.
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Final Numbers: 11/21 Hi/Lo: 61/41 Precip: 1.06" 11/22 Hi/Lo: 63/47 Precip: 0.76" Precip Total: 1.82"
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Posting this early, and I will edit before end of tomorrow, but here's my numbers for RIC: 11/21: Hi/Lo: 59￪/40 Precip: 1.18￪ 11/22: Hi/Lo: 63/44 Precip: 0.53￬ Precip TOTAL: 1.71
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Too early to tell now, but from what I’ve seen while forecasting various locations the past couple weeks, rainfall totals have been more than the euro, but slightly less than the GFS. I might have some fun and post my guesses for temps and rainfall on Monday evening.
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I just drove up 81 and near 64 it was so smoky…
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BWI: 25.4” DCA: 18.4” IAD: 26.9” RIC: 16.3” Tiebreaker LYH: 20.2”
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I think AI will be useful in accounting for biases the models have. And it may help in producing more accurate forecasts for areas like Canaan, but higher resolutions may be the answer for that. (Which means more computing power). Will it get to the point where we run model output through an AI and that’s what our model output will be?
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Looks like we’ll top out here in the upper 50’s with dew points in lower 20s. That’s dry.
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Is this to help get people involved in the warning verification process, so that it makes the NWS’ work a bit easier?
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There were lots of interesting topics! Not all of it I understand quite yet, but probably by next year I’ll know more.
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Flurries have begun!
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Staying up to hopefully see my first flakes here in blacksburg. I think I’ve seen one but could have been a bug. If I haven’t yet I should in the next hour or so.
