I am not leaving it off the table, and I certainly don’t want to wait to find out with the cold temperatures afterwards. My neighborhood roads typically hold snow for days afterwards.
I’ll probably have to leave ric for this one to get back to school for something at the end of the week. I’m worried the side roads won’t be cleared in time. Kinda lame.
I’ll pay attention to that one when the first mess leaves.
anyways, I’m skipping the euro tonight. I’ll see whether I’m disappointed or not tomorrow.
edit: UK was good again though
I’m noticing that the snowiest solution over the past few days seems to have the low further south over Oklahoma, instead of further south/west over the Texas Panhandle.
18z AIFS is a step up for precip amounts, with ≈0.8” for the richmond area, but the resolution is bad so can’t comment on temperatures, ptype, or much really. Especially without soundings.
They’re only as good as the data we put in. We’re launching the same 2 weather balloons per day, and it’s the vertical data that’s tricky. I can absolutely see why the uncertainty is as high as it is at times even today.
Again, the data out in the ocean isn’t really there to be fed into the models at this point. Once the energy gets over land and the models have that information down, then I’ll throw in the towel.
Wasn’t the NAM really good for that one? It was consistently on an island of its own showing 10”+. Makes me want the NAM now.
Definitely a good feel right now, but a little doubt too.