NorthHillsWx

We can kid ourselves all we want with these epic ECMWF And it’s ensemble solutions but all we’re setting ourselves for is bouts of cold rain. Until it snows again I don’t believe it can. No analysis in this but I just have this gut feeling this is going to be a major letdown and in a few weeks we’ll be taking about fabulous February and a strat warning event or some blocking pattern that resulted in snow 32 years ago or a split flow that holds off and happens in April. Anyways I regress, merry Christmas to everyone!

Last year someone posted the stages of winter snow lovers in the south. That needs to resurface

We are going to seriously undercut our forecast of 29 tonight. Already 28.2

Maybe a change is coming but I see the can kicking beginning. To me, we can kick is past the first week in Jan now

We’ll see. There are conflicting suites and it’s not locked in at all. GEFS is trending towards the Op. MJO staying in phase 6… I do not like what I’m seeing. Will it be 70s in January like the 18z gfs insists? No. But with all the cold dumping into upper Midwest and a SER entrenched I do not see winter weather chances at all through week 1 of the new year

18z GFS is a clinic of how to establish a semi-permanent SER. Ugly doesn’t even do that run justice

Euro has been terrible last few winters with handling cold in the long range. Honestly I think we continue the pattern of warmups, rain, cold, repeat, but with a bit more frequency of the cold snaps compared to last winter as it does appear more cold will be available on the continent. I do not buy an extended cold period at all

High of 39 yesterday. Low of 22. My gauge at the farm in Louisburg bottomed out at 13.9! Raleigh is an oven

They’re out brining roads between here and louisburg. Don’t think they even touched the brine supply last winter. W

It’s gotten so bad that I’m hoping for a couple hours of freezing drizzle in the morning. And even that is a long shot now. Ops dumping cold into Midwest should scare everyone

18z GFS was a disaster but ensembles have the pattern we want. I’m not getting excited until we’re in the 7 day range

Not as cold as forecast for my location. Bottomed out at 24.7

12z GFS is a dream run for mountain folks around the 30th

We picked up 0.19” of rain last night after reaching a high of 71

We don’t need wall to wall cold but getting 3 cold days then needing 3 weeks to refresh is the pattern we’ve been in for 3+ years.

EPS and GEFS are downright disgusting heading into January. Really no sign of a pattern change on modeling except for a zonal flow and PAC puke to intensify through the end of the year. From today through Jan 1 I bet we see as many 65+ degree days as days with lows below freezing

Tarheel is back… seasons over. Might as well hang em up till next thanksgiving

When RDU breaks the snowless record the main forum is going to explode

It’s absolutely pathetic. 18z GFS barely gets it below freezing for a night into SC. Just a day ago there were low 20’s pre Christmas into the Florida panhandle on some models

That’s been lost in year a long, long time ago

Probably going to be close. I’d think slightly below is likely still

What did they predict last year?

We now have Columbias climate.

Jan 16, 2022 was our last 0.25” of ice. So not that long ago but it’s been exceedingly rare. We used to specialize in ice, maybe not full blown ice storms, but most systems following a cold snap would at least start as an hour or two of ice

I remember a bad winter was one where we had 2-3 winter weather advisories for freezing rain with maybe a light snow or snow to rain scenario. I mean not even counting the snow drought, we can’t even get a glaze of ice. That used to happen multiple times a year with CAD