NorthHillsWx

Fish: forecasting is hard, there are mixed signals, I have no confidence in any scenario. We could get 5 inches, we could get a flake. 1-3” is my call. Lol

As eyewall pointed out, it was much closer to phasing like some of the other models did. This was a good run in the correct direction

From my personal experience with freezing rain, it matters A LOT at ground level but not at all in the trees. To get ice to accumulate on the ground it generally needs to be in the 20’s and the freezing rain needs to be light. Overpasses are a different story

EURO holds serve, still a bit on the eastern edge. Good snows through coastal plain

I was going to say… it’s like the only one that had the rapid snow transition down to Richmond. Everything else looks about right

Oh I was bobbing in the wake

Well, this escalated quickly

Man that’s a beautiful shift

Excellent analysis and posts! Thanks for all you contribute

Slowed down, further west, better downstream moisture. Everything we needed it to do

Definitely another non-insignificant westward shift. Don’t look at the red L. Pressure falls MUCH closer to the coast

Holy moly the GFS drops a good storm BEFORE the storm, then goes boom!

One other note before I have to go back to work- these “clown maps” will likely verify with this storm being the high ratios we should have with pure arctic air. Usually you shave a good % off those maps due to warm ground/borderline temps/mixed precip, but in the all-snow areas we actually don’t have anything I see to negate accumulation. By the time this starts it will have been in the 20’s for hours and will be falling into temps in the lower-mid 20’s. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some people shocked with how well this piles up under those conditions compared to a “normal” event here

Check, please

RGEM has been rock solid. If it scores the coup here I think I’ll have to reevaluate it vs the NAM. That’s a heck of a Carolina’s/SE Virginia snowstorm right there folks

Oh I’m in no way saying that. Yesterday there was the question of whether we’d get ANYTHING other than the fropa. Now it’s looking more likely to have a decent snow. I’ll be so happy with 2 inches of snow falling into 25 degrees I can’t even tell y’all

ICON came in just about the same. Held serve

The dam has burst and the NW trend has hit

None who jumped ship yesterday are allowed back onboard. Oh, crap

Well well well, we may be approaching a little model consensus at 0 hour???

Nope, way slower, much further west. Way more amped too. 06z had it well off of Virginia Beach 12z has it sitting off hatteras and wayyy closer and I’m not just talking about the red L

NAM was a GREAT run for I-95 and was almost back to the Triangle! That’s a massive improvement across the board EDIT: It snows to Raleigh/Henderson line

At this point, which models have had the least run to run volatility? That’s what I would pay attention to. I’m looking at you, RGEM/CMC and GFS/EURO to an extent. Blend those and I believe you have your answer here. NAM has been all over the place and I do not trust any other short range CAM inside of 12 hours

NAM getting back in the game!!!!

Before this begins, whatever way this breaks, just want to thank the Mets on here for posting and helping us amateurs interpret a challenging setup. This is one well look back on for sure as one of the more complex winter storms in terms of late development and lack of consistent model support all the way through to 0 hour. I love the conversation on this board and appreciate the insight from those posters who know much more about our atmosphere than I ever will. Now let’s reel this one in for someone!