NorthHillsWx

It’s still well west of its ensemble mean. GFS ensemble has a LP position 50 miles off of hatteras. Workable.

I’m not saying it’s correct and it’s the NAM but DPs in single digits to around 10 across most of the Carolina’s as the storm rolls in… That’s a pretty classic wedge setting up

Having the Euro onboard for a decent storm with run to run consistency is so nice

Pretty much every model trended better for most on this forum overnight. EURO CMC and ICON all pretty much agree on storm track, leaving GFS on an island there. As was said above, that’s not usually the island you’d want to die on when making a forecast.

https://www.wral.com/photos-snow-showers-appear-monday-night-in-central-north-carolina/21796426/ Pretty good coating around Henderson and into franklin county with the band

NWS going with likely pops of a wintry mix for my point forecast Friday night. Pretty bullish for them

Go negative tilt just offshore of hatteras

Think it’s going to track through the piedmont again unfortunately

ICON found the I-85 line. My god, it’s happening

I changed it to observations page but it’s a very strong looking band on radar. I think NAM actually showed this band for several runs

Friend near Spring Hope reporting a heavy snow burst and a quick coating on everything

Kinda sucks watching the MA cash in but damn if it might save us. Model temps trending down might be picking up on the deep snow over north of us. This is a very good situation for a classic SE winter storm, notice I didn’t say snowstorm

NAM was ready to bring the goods! Amped up masterpiece. Cold and 1032 where it needs to be. HOLDDDDDD

And it’s not positivity based on one run of the GFS while everything else says no… This feels like the good old days and is looking more and more like a classic SE storm. Little bit of everything and being north of 85 helps. God it’s been awhile

GFS drops the cold hammer for the rest of the run. Haven’t seen that in about 5 days

Even though the GFS track was obviously not good, I’m encouraged by everything from 18z. GFS was the system we want. Just need a better track. Cold was there across the board. Baby steps on Euro. I’ll go ahead and say it here: I think the RDU streak ends with this one. Just gotta figure out if it’s a snowstorm or the typical piedmont mixed bag. Good trends through the day IMO.

False. Totals increased across most of the state.

Gimme that HP look over KY/OH all day

Hahahaha that’s great. WPC saying it’s either going to rain or snow, take your pick

In the CMC ensembles we trust! Some major hits in there

Don’t mind H5 on Euro. Colder = Better

I will take my 1.0” of mostly snow and call it a winter.

Everyone breathe. There’s been no notable trend in models since yesterday other than everything has the storm now and suppression looks extremely unlikely. Pay attention to the lobes of energy moving around the western ridge and the phase with the Baja low. Also watch the antecedent airmass and H5. Really want a stronger HP over the Ohio valley/NE ahead of this system. There’s a good chance nothing resolves today or tomorrow but I expect by tomorrow we will see a trend developing in regards to the phase location and strength. Really hoping this one works out but still not sold given the variables

^this. I think a better phase/more amped system is needed to pull in cold air for snow. Track will dictate precip type but a full phase/stronger system with correct track looks like the only way we win in this setup

I’d take the Canadian Ice storm at this point. Anything is better than today’s weather. Give me anything frozen