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NorthHillsWx

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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. NorthHillsWx
    This GFS run is what I’d expect from the pattern. This was not a southern storm but it’s too cold before to avoid ice. Lots of watching to go but I still feel strongly this will be a CAD mixed event. Duration and impact obviously TBD
  2. NorthHillsWx
    RDU will pick up 0.10” 1 hour before we otherwise would break the record and that will be it for the year. Don’t get to claim the record and don’t get enough to cover the mulch. Bank on it.
  3. NorthHillsWx
    This is a case where a stronger cutter would actually benefit us down the road setting up the 50/50 further west. I’m not sure these southern trends with the first system help us down the road. Might lead to an all or nothing situation with the first storm which we’d like to avoid at all costs
  4. NorthHillsWx
    Yep. Not ideal
  5. NorthHillsWx
    This is the pattern those areas need to score. Actual suppression with true Arctic air
  6. NorthHillsWx
    EURO is really close. It wants to smoke someone wherever that overrunning finger sets up.
  7. NorthHillsWx
    It may just be noise but all 3 models went south this run at 12z regarding the first storm
  8. NorthHillsWx
    EURO is a giant hit for middle Virginia but is way way south from 6z
  9. NorthHillsWx
    Euro looks like it’s coming in much further south this run with the first system
  10. NorthHillsWx
    The system on the 6th is absolutely critical to whatever comes next bc it becomes our 50/50 low. Until the 6th storm is ironed out it’s going to be impossible to figure out the next one. This is a highly volatile period for models with the second storm being totally dependent on the evolution of the first, so that follow up system just being present is all we can ask for. I’d say this whether it was showing a HECS or a miss to the south
  11. NorthHillsWx
    I still like the idea of a CAD system on the 6th. I think something between the EURO and GFS. Don’t think this is a snowstorm unfortunately unless it tracks way south which seems to be an outlier idea at the moment but given the antecedent airmass and HP over NE I doubt the system is all rain
  12. NorthHillsWx
    If we got the 6th system I would be rooting hard for the extreme southern folks and coastal Carolina’s to cash in on the 10th system as my snowpack would be locked in lol
  13. NorthHillsWx
    There was a small snow the week before and then an ice event after if my memory serves me. I remember the ice with snow still on the ground
  14. NorthHillsWx
    I have no idea what you’re looking at. Verbatim the Canadian is a major ice storm and regardless with CAD events you look for the setup before precip maps. If the setup is there models will hone in on the wedge as we get closer. The setup is there
  15. NorthHillsWx
    Euro is historically not great at picking up CAD setups at range. It being the outlier is not surprising. I’m beginnning to focus on 1/6 as a legit wintry threat. The H5 setup is there and it is a very cold/dry air mass that moves in the days before. At a minimum this should result in a large area of nuisance ice
  16. NorthHillsWx
    This is the worst I’ve ever seen. It gets worse every year
  17. NorthHillsWx
    1/6 is a classic CAD look. If that system stays weaker west of apps, I don’t think that wedge will be scoured out and we wind up with a GFS/CMC solution. This is an ice storm look. Even the GFS is showing a strong wedge and it always underestimates their strength at range
  18. NorthHillsWx
    18z was a better run. Not there yet but better
  19. NorthHillsWx
    And temps have come WAY up
  20. NorthHillsWx
    Winter in the southeast is a comedy
  21. NorthHillsWx
    And the walls start closing in…
  22. NorthHillsWx
    I’m going to bed and hope and pray I don’t see that run again in morning. Dumpster fire
  23. NorthHillsWx
    Energy looks more consolidated coming south on the 0z than 18z for the 10th system
  24. NorthHillsWx
    Yep. Ugly for the upstate. Goes poof east of there
  25. NorthHillsWx
    Canadian says “incoming”
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