NorthHillsWx

We undershot the forecast pretty significantly here. Low of 26.7. Pretty long streak of below freezing nights. This has been impressive cold wall to wall through January so far

I know right?!?! That’s kind of giving me hope bc the two suites that at some point have shown snowless solutions have also been the most inconsistent.

GFS is a couple hundred miles NW with the LP than where it was at 18z yesterday

If the Canadian scores a coup here we will need to remember that for future tracking when we have a real Arctic airmass pressing like this one. It feels like that model always wants to create an Arctic airmass out of whatever cold is available and that causes it to always be a cold outlier. Maybe actually working with an Arctic airmass like this one it verifies better. Of all guidance it has by far been the most consistent here. Definitely an interesting development especially after seeing the GFS trend towards it after going far away the last two days.

I’ll say this, if I was in the bullseye of snow RN with the NW trends on GFS and to an extent Euro at this range, I’d be pretty nervous. Only thing giving me pause for real hope is EPS doesn’t have that many solutions more NW, making it feel like the NW trend might be limited here. GFS, Canadian, and UK isn’t a terrible camp to be in but EPS needs to hop on board or it kinda feels like fools gold. Thankfully there’s still time. Today and tomorrow will be important to see actual trends develop. Model variance isn’t even close to where it was this time yesterday so models are definitely coming into alignment on the general idea of the storm

This is an outside the coast comment. If you’re on the coast you have to feel great at this point

Need EURO onboard but nice seeing GFS coming home

He’s not breaking until he’s shoveling 15” of wake county powder this week

Gfs has trended west pretty far last few runs (after it revived the storm)

Icon looks much more suppressed than 12z

We’ve reached the “bet on the the Canadian/Icon over the GFS/EURO” phase of tracking here. In layman’s terms, we’re cooked

CMC would feed families!

GFS better. It has the storm again. Doesn’t completely trap that Baja low

Euro had the storm but was suppressed. EPS actually very good. GFS only model without the storm. GEFS better than Op but ticked down for most

We’ve reached a crossroads with the models. The 21-22nd system is our snow chance. The second system is charging into a stale retreating airmsss and will not work for most outside the mountains. GFS isn’t even suppressed, it hangs the energy back up and doesn’t even have a storm. If that happens, there’s no NW trend to root for, this is DOA. Better hope other models are right because the GFS is going the wrong way in a hurry

GFS has lost the first storm. Second storm is a mixed bag to rain for most. Joy

GFS doesn’t even show wave 1 this run

7 days? More like 5

Coldest morning since Jan 2022 at my house. We’ll see where we bottom out EDIT: 17.1 was the lowest we got

If I’m in the western Carolinas or Virginia I’m probably starting to sweat this one. If I’m in the Deep South or central/eastern Carolina’s I feel pretty good still. Suppressed I can deal with but a flat lifeless wave isn’t going to work for anyone. We’re at the stage now where trends matter. The trend is definitely a little more flat and suppressed. We’ll see if that stops. Having both the GFS and Euro on outside looking in is not good. EPS has been fairly rock solid though. Today will be interesting

EPS has been fairly consistent too, unlike the op.

Those in western NC don’t get burned every single storm by the NW trend. They just go from 2” of modeled snow to 4” of snow on the ground and call it a win while we rain. I’m not saying it’s gonna happen but if the storms where that model is right now I’m damn more Comfortable than one modeled along the coast at this range. IMBY whatever I haven’t seen an inch of snow in 3 years I’m living in the loony bin on this storm

My thoughts.

18z AI trended way south but at least it lost that ridiculous 850 warming and was all snow in the piedmont areas. Honestly not a bad look

Yes