NorthHillsWx

Every 12z model so far has been a warning level event for RDU…

It nailed the Raleigh heat island

Yea. And track is fine

Strung out, no rates

Yes but time and time again I’ve seen that northern edge of freezing rain end up as more sleet and 925 modeled too high, especially if the surface is that cold. There are very few instances that come to mind of freezing rain and 27 in RDU.

With surface temps in the mid 20’s I’d have to think a lot of that freezing rain modeled would likely be sleet. 1-3” of sleet/snow with a glaze of ice would be acceptable in my neighborhood

Well the CMC killed the streak of every model trending positively (I know foothills and I-40 folks disagree) but taken at face value it’s a major winter storm for everyone. Just a crippling ice storm for the piedmont. Foothills to SW Virginia get smoked with snow

When you haven’t seen winter weather in 3 years, you settle for ice storms

Yes that’s what yall wanted to see I’m sure! Honestly keeping me below 32 with some sort of wintry precip is a win after it showed rain for so long here

EDIT: it’s still inland. Just colder. Baby steps

HMMM… GFS trending to all other models. Let’s freaking go

You can all keep your frost bitten snowy mid Atlantic hands off our central NC snowstorm this weekend please! Now go back to shoveling your driveways and sledding

I actually like a night snow. Actually sticks to the roads and fun to watch in the lights. An excuse to open the good bourbon too. I’d love if it started in daytime and peaked in night but beggars cannot be choosers especially here…

Nope. It stays here. It’s ours

Im about to have to log off the models for the day. Not used to positive trends every time I look. Can’t take the kick in the nads I’m sure the GFS will be shortly, vibes too high right now

12z Runs so far: NAM: slower phase. Weaker HP but somehow colder (guess due to less amped). Big snowstorm for the forum ICON: Almost carbon copy of its last 2 runs. Cold, very solid snowstorm for most on the forum, especially N Carolina Come on CMC GFS and Euro!

HOLDDDDDDD

He drew the climo line between A and B lol. But I agree

Hard to complain with that look.

Noticed that but it’s also long range NAM

Yes. If this tracks 40 miles off CL I’ll think RDU stays some type of frozen/freezing. We get into trouble when LP tracks along the coast

I love when GSP gets excited. Easy to tell in their wording

Now THAT is cool

I just want to remind the forum it’s currently Tuesday. Depending on where you are this system arrives at some point Friday. We’re getting into NAM and short range guidance range. There’s developing consensus with the globals. We’re seeing trends develop and other models are picking them up too, the windshield wiping is lessening. This is where we want to be at this range. Cold air source has been solidified more than we were thinking a few days ago. Suppression is off the table. The storm is there across guidance. Phase and exact track are critical but we haven’t been in THIS position since Jan 2022. Excellent discussion on this board. Our posters have been ALL OVER this threat. Now seeing news outlets and Mets sounding the horn. Very very encouraging signs all around. Let’s reel in the GFS. Let’s get some consistency with the strength of the system from the Euro. Ensemble support is there. We’re getting into short range guidance, so going into tomorrow we’ll have even more ways to view modeled storm evolution. Appreciate this board and all the posters. Hoping this one works out for a lot of the folks on here

Raleigh has literally been surrounded by minor snow events this season