NorthHillsWx

EPS and GEFS are downright disgusting heading into January. Really no sign of a pattern change on modeling except for a zonal flow and PAC puke to intensify through the end of the year. From today through Jan 1 I bet we see as many 65+ degree days as days with lows below freezing

Tarheel is back… seasons over. Might as well hang em up till next thanksgiving

When RDU breaks the snowless record the main forum is going to explode

It’s absolutely pathetic. 18z GFS barely gets it below freezing for a night into SC. Just a day ago there were low 20’s pre Christmas into the Florida panhandle on some models

That’s been lost in year a long, long time ago

Probably going to be close. I’d think slightly below is likely still

What did they predict last year?

We now have Columbias climate.

Jan 16, 2022 was our last 0.25” of ice. So not that long ago but it’s been exceedingly rare. We used to specialize in ice, maybe not full blown ice storms, but most systems following a cold snap would at least start as an hour or two of ice

I remember a bad winter was one where we had 2-3 winter weather advisories for freezing rain with maybe a light snow or snow to rain scenario. I mean not even counting the snow drought, we can’t even get a glaze of ice. That used to happen multiple times a year with CAD

When the air in our source region is running +20 we are effectively screwed

Agreed, the first half of December was better than expected. Guess that got my hopes up when models appeared to be building on something

I’m 100% confident the torch will verify after our 2-3 day cold snap. We’re in a climate now where warmth wins out 8-9 times out of 10 and models struggle to figure out the type of warmth that exists now. This is a frustration post but I am at a loss. People are like it’s only midway through December but it’ll be January by the time this torch passes. Just a couple days ago we’d trended away from the post Christmas torch to repeated cold shots now it’s legitimately just a few post front cold days then the oven

Chasing week 5+ weeklies already… Hello darkness my old friend…

If you like cold weather, the last 24 hours was not the trend you want

We deserve to break the snow drought this year, but only after every snowless streak record is broken. Give me the record followed immediately by double digits

I’m not worried about long range but that pre Christmas chance has evaporated with most guidance consolidating LP in the MA. Looking more and more like a cold front then warmup.

This snow drought is remarkable. Not only has it not snowed, but it hasn’t been close to snowing

And… it’s gone. Onto January

From a cold air transport perspective that run was a thing of beauty. That would be a crazy north wind with temps crashing. Reminds me of that system a couple years ago around Christmas

Just a crazy amount of energy flying around with both systems on the 12z. The 22nd storm trough now goes full negative tilt but the coastal development is strange to say the least. Mega cold plunge behind it incoming

Lol. I will point out GEFS ensembles do not have the storm at all. Snow mean hasn’t ticked up at all even with a few Op runs showing it. Still seems like a pipe dream at this point but there’s a chance

GEFS remained as cold as it’s been for the 21-24 period. Op has the storm but is actually much worse from an overall look with a quick breakdown of the western ridge allowing a very quick warmup around Christmas followed by cutters. Op runs are not to be trusted at all at range in this pattern. Are we going to see a 3-4 day cold shot followed by a major warmup or will we get several shots of cold after the initial one? Storm window remains centered around the 22nd (for any potential wintry). At least the timing remains very consistent

27.7 this morning with very heavy frost

Over the last couple weeks, I have been averaging morning readings 3-4 degrees cooler than RDU. That is a fairly significant spread given the limited distance. Afternoon temps have largely been similar